Algeria Expects Oil Prices to Stabilize at $100 by Year's End

A general view of Sonatrach's Hassi R'mel gas field, Algeria (Reuters)
A general view of Sonatrach's Hassi R'mel gas field, Algeria (Reuters)
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Algeria Expects Oil Prices to Stabilize at $100 by Year's End

A general view of Sonatrach's Hassi R'mel gas field, Algeria (Reuters)
A general view of Sonatrach's Hassi R'mel gas field, Algeria (Reuters)

Oil prices are predicted to stabilize at $100 a barrel by the year-end, Algeria's Minister of Energy and Mines Mohamed Arkab said.

The Minister explained that despite the decline in oil prices and global recession concerns, the latest decision of OPEC+ countries to reduce production by two million barrels per day (bpd) should keep the market balance and the stability of oil prices at the level of $100 per barrel until the year-end.

"Oil prices recovered after the unprecedented markets collapse in early 2020 due to the appearance and spread of the coronavirus," Arkab noted.

The Minister said that crude oil prices, on average, exceeded the threshold of $109 per barrel by the end of September of this year, which contributed to the improvement of the overall indicators of the national economy.

He expected that his country's hydrocarbon revenues would exceed $50 billion by the end of the current year, adding that given the achievements recorded until September 2022, Algeria expects a two percent increase in primary hydrocarbon production by the end of the current year.

"Exports outside hydrocarbons will record an estimated increase of more than 40 percent compared to the achievements of 2021, driven mainly by the increase in exports of mining materials and petrochemical products," he added in statements carried by the official Algerian Press Agency (APZ).

Algeria's hydrocarbon exports rose 77 percent annually to $42.6 billion between January and September.

"Exports for the same period last year amounted to $24.1 billion," Arkab said.

Concerning investment in the energy and mining sector, the Minister indicated that a total of $6.3 billion was allocated during the first quarter of 2022, an eight percent increase compared to the same period in 2021.

Oil prices settled by more than five percent on Friday amid uncertainty around future interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, while a looming EU ban on Russian oil and the possibility of China easing some COVID restrictions supported markets.

Though fears of global recession capped gains, Brent crude futures settled up $3.99 to $98.57 per barrel, a weekly gain of 2.9 percent.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up $2.96, or five percent, at $92.61, a 4.7 percent weekly gain.

While demand concerns affect the market, supplies are also expected to decline with the start of the expected European embargo on Russian oil and the decline in US crude stocks.

The European Union ban on imports of Russian crude will take effect on Dec. 05.

China is sticking to its strict COVID-19 curbs after cases rose on Thursday to their highest since August, but a former Chinese disease control official said substantial changes to the country's COVID-19 policy are to take place soon.

Highlighting demand concerns, Saudi Arabia lowered the December official selling prices (OSPs) for the flagship Arab light crude it sells to Asia to plus $5.45 a barrel versus the Oman/Dubai average.

Meanwhile, Russia, which met India's minimal oil requirements till March this year, emerged as the country's biggest oil supplier in October, surpassing traditional sellers Saudi Arabia and Iraq, data from energy shipping tracking company Vortexa showed.

On Sunday, Russia supplied 935,556 bpd of crude oil to India last October, the highest rate ever.

The report said Russia in October accounted for 22 percent of India's total crude imports, compared to Iraq's 20.5 percent and Saudi Arabia's 16 percent.

Russian oil constituted no more than 0.2 percent of the total crude imported by India in the year until Mar. 31, 2022.

India has imported more Russian oil after the conflict in Ukraine broke out in late February.



Euro Falls as Markets Brace for French Post-election Gridlock

A participant holds a French flag during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Place de la Republique in Paris on July 7, 2024. (AFP)
A participant holds a French flag during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Place de la Republique in Paris on July 7, 2024. (AFP)
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Euro Falls as Markets Brace for French Post-election Gridlock

A participant holds a French flag during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Place de la Republique in Paris on July 7, 2024. (AFP)
A participant holds a French flag during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Place de la Republique in Paris on July 7, 2024. (AFP)

The euro slipped on Sunday after projections from France's election pointed to a hung parliament and an unexpectedly strong showing for the left-wing New Popular Front, casting fresh uncertainty over markets and setting the stage for further volatility ahead.

Analysts said markets would likely be relieved that Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) was forecast to come third after last week's first-round victory.

Yet investors also have concerns that the French left’s plans could unwind many of President Emmanuel Macron’s pro-market reforms. And they believe political gridlock could end attempts to rein in France's debt, which stood at 110.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023.

The euro fell 0.2% to $1.081 as the week’s trading got underway. It had climbed last week as opinion polls suggested a hung parliament was likely, assuaging fears of a far-right victory, after dropping sharply - along with stocks and bonds - when Macron called the elections in early June.

"It looks like the anti-far right parties really got a lot of support," said Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe.

"But fundamentally from a market perspective, there’s no difference in terms of the outcome. There’s really going to be a vacuum when it comes to France’s legislative ability."

Harvey added: "The bond market is going to be the real place to look at. There might be a bit of a gap lower in French bonds (prices)."

Trading in French bonds and stocks will begin on Monday morning in Europe.

The leftist alliance, which gathers the hard left, the Socialists and Greens, was forecast to win between 172 and 215 seats out of 577, according to pollsters' projections based on early results from a sample of polling stations.

Macron’s centrist alliance was projected to win 150-180 seats, with the RN seen getting 115 to 155 seats.

Analysts said a period of volatility and uncertainty was expected to continue as investors now assess what form the parliament will take, and how many, if any, of its policies the leftist alliance will be able to implement.

The New Popular Front alliance says its first moves would include a 10% civil servant pay hike, providing free school lunches, supplies and transport while raising housing subsidies by 10%.

"The economic program of the left is in many ways much more problematic than that of the right, and while the left will not be able to govern on their own, the outlook for French public finances deteriorates further with these results," said Nordea chief market analyst Jan von Gerich.

JITTERY MARKETS

Markets tumbled after Macron gambled in June by calling a parliamentary election following a trouncing at the hands of the RN in European Parliament elections - as investors worried an RN victory could install a prime minister intent on a high-spending, France-first agenda that would exacerbate a large debt pile and shake relations with Europe.

The risk premium investors demand to hold the country's debt soared to its highest level since the euro zone crisis in 2012. French stocks, led by banks, dropped as investors worried about their holdings of government debt, new regulation and economic uncertainty in the euro area's second biggest economy.

Yet equities, bonds and the euro all recovered somewhat last week as polls showed a hung parliament was the most likely outcome as the left wing and centrist parties struck deals to give anti-RN candidates a better chance.

The exact make-up of the next parliament remains uncertain, as does the next prime minister. Gabriel Attal said he would hand his resignation to Macron on Monday.

"It’s going to be very hard to actually go ahead and pass any policy and bring about any progressive reforms because each party’s vote is split and no one has an absolute majority," said Aneeka Gupta, director of macroeconomic research at WisdomTree.

Yet she added: "I think the markets will be happy we’re avoiding this extreme situation with the far right."