Algeria Expects Oil Prices to Stabilize at $100 by Year's End

A general view of Sonatrach's Hassi R'mel gas field, Algeria (Reuters)
A general view of Sonatrach's Hassi R'mel gas field, Algeria (Reuters)
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Algeria Expects Oil Prices to Stabilize at $100 by Year's End

A general view of Sonatrach's Hassi R'mel gas field, Algeria (Reuters)
A general view of Sonatrach's Hassi R'mel gas field, Algeria (Reuters)

Oil prices are predicted to stabilize at $100 a barrel by the year-end, Algeria's Minister of Energy and Mines Mohamed Arkab said.

The Minister explained that despite the decline in oil prices and global recession concerns, the latest decision of OPEC+ countries to reduce production by two million barrels per day (bpd) should keep the market balance and the stability of oil prices at the level of $100 per barrel until the year-end.

"Oil prices recovered after the unprecedented markets collapse in early 2020 due to the appearance and spread of the coronavirus," Arkab noted.

The Minister said that crude oil prices, on average, exceeded the threshold of $109 per barrel by the end of September of this year, which contributed to the improvement of the overall indicators of the national economy.

He expected that his country's hydrocarbon revenues would exceed $50 billion by the end of the current year, adding that given the achievements recorded until September 2022, Algeria expects a two percent increase in primary hydrocarbon production by the end of the current year.

"Exports outside hydrocarbons will record an estimated increase of more than 40 percent compared to the achievements of 2021, driven mainly by the increase in exports of mining materials and petrochemical products," he added in statements carried by the official Algerian Press Agency (APZ).

Algeria's hydrocarbon exports rose 77 percent annually to $42.6 billion between January and September.

"Exports for the same period last year amounted to $24.1 billion," Arkab said.

Concerning investment in the energy and mining sector, the Minister indicated that a total of $6.3 billion was allocated during the first quarter of 2022, an eight percent increase compared to the same period in 2021.

Oil prices settled by more than five percent on Friday amid uncertainty around future interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, while a looming EU ban on Russian oil and the possibility of China easing some COVID restrictions supported markets.

Though fears of global recession capped gains, Brent crude futures settled up $3.99 to $98.57 per barrel, a weekly gain of 2.9 percent.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up $2.96, or five percent, at $92.61, a 4.7 percent weekly gain.

While demand concerns affect the market, supplies are also expected to decline with the start of the expected European embargo on Russian oil and the decline in US crude stocks.

The European Union ban on imports of Russian crude will take effect on Dec. 05.

China is sticking to its strict COVID-19 curbs after cases rose on Thursday to their highest since August, but a former Chinese disease control official said substantial changes to the country's COVID-19 policy are to take place soon.

Highlighting demand concerns, Saudi Arabia lowered the December official selling prices (OSPs) for the flagship Arab light crude it sells to Asia to plus $5.45 a barrel versus the Oman/Dubai average.

Meanwhile, Russia, which met India's minimal oil requirements till March this year, emerged as the country's biggest oil supplier in October, surpassing traditional sellers Saudi Arabia and Iraq, data from energy shipping tracking company Vortexa showed.

On Sunday, Russia supplied 935,556 bpd of crude oil to India last October, the highest rate ever.

The report said Russia in October accounted for 22 percent of India's total crude imports, compared to Iraq's 20.5 percent and Saudi Arabia's 16 percent.

Russian oil constituted no more than 0.2 percent of the total crude imported by India in the year until Mar. 31, 2022.

India has imported more Russian oil after the conflict in Ukraine broke out in late February.



OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters
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OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters

OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth this year and next on Tuesday, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions, marking the producer group's fourth consecutive downward revision in the 2024 outlook.

The weaker outlook highlights the challenge facing OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, which earlier this month postponed a plan to start raising output in December against a backdrop of falling prices.

In a monthly report on Tuesday, OPEC said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd forecast last month. Until August, OPEC had kept the outlook unchanged since its first forecast in July 2023.

In the report, OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd, Reuters.

China accounted for the bulk of the 2024 downgrade. OPEC trimmed its Chinese growth forecast to 450,000 bpd from 580,000 bpd and said diesel use in September fell year-on-year for a seventh consecutive month.

"Diesel has been under pressure from a slowdown in construction amid weak manufacturing activity, combined with the ongoing deployment of LNG-fuelled trucks," OPEC said with reference to China.

Oil pared gains after the report was issued, with Brent crude trading below $73 a barrel.

Forecasts on the strength of demand growth in 2024 vary widely, partly due to differences over demand from China and the pace of the world's switch to cleaner fuels.

OPEC is still at the top of industry estimates and has a long way to go to match the International Energy Agency's far lower view.

The IEA, which represents industrialised countries, sees demand growth of 860,000 bpd in 2024. The agency is scheduled to update its figures on Thursday.

- OUTPUT RISES

OPEC+ has implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support prices, most of which are in place until the end of 2025.

The group was to start unwinding the most recent layer of cuts of 2.2 million bpd from December but said on Nov. 3 it will delay the plan for a month, as weak demand and rising supply outside the group maintain downward pressure on the market.

OPEC's output is also rising, the report showed, with Libyan production rebounding after being cut by unrest. OPEC+ pumped 40.34 million bpd in October, up 215,000 bpd from September. Iraq cut output to 4.07 million bpd, closer to its 4 million bpd quota.

As well as Iraq, OPEC has named Russia and Kazakhstan as among the OPEC+ countries which pumped above quotas.

Russia's output edged up in October by 9,000 bpd to about 9.01 million bpd, OPEC said, slightly above its quota.