Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
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Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini

Iran's regime is divided in its response to months of unprecedented protests, wavering between repression and what it views as conciliatory gestures trying to quell the discontent, analysts say.

"The conflicting messages we are getting from the Iranian regime suggest an internal debate on how to deal with ongoing protests," said Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver.

"In most authoritarian regimes, there are hawks and doves" who disagree on how repressive the state should be during crises, he said.

The granting of retrials to several death-row protesters, and the release from detention of prominent dissidents, are signs that some seek to take a softer approach, AFP reported.

But a reminder of the hardline tack came Saturday when Iran executed two men for killing a paramilitary member during protest-related unrest.

Demonstrations began after the September 16 death in custody of Kurdish-Iranian Mahsa Amini, 22. She had been arrested by morality police who enforce a strict dress code which requires women to wear a scarf-like covering over their hair and neck.

The protests have escalated into calls for an end to the regime, posing the biggest challenge for the clerics since the 1979 revolution deposed the shah.

Authorities have responded with deadly violence that has left hundreds dead.

Thousands have been arrested and 14 detainees sentenced to hang, many for killing or attacking security force members, according to the judiciary.

The Supreme Court has upheld some of the death sentences and a total of four men have now been executed. The judiciary has also announced retrials for six of the 14.

This reflects a "political calculus", said US-based Iran expert Mehrzad Boroujerdi, co-author of "Post-Revolutionary Iran: A Political Handbook".

"They know that mass executions will bring more people into the streets and further agitate them. On the other hand, they want to send a signal that they are not reticent to execute protesters so that people are intimidated."

In what analysts see as another attempt to calm the situation, two prominent dissidents arrested early during the protests, Majid Tavakoli and Hossein Ronaghi, were freed weeks later. Ronaghi had been on a hunger strike.

The regime is using "everything from pressure release valves to long prison terms and executions. They are experimenting with these as they struggle to formulate a more clearly articulated policy," Boroujerdi said.

Anoush Ehteshami, director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at the UK's Durham University, said the retrials partly reflected mounting foreign and domestic pressure.

"But also within the regime there is division about how to handle this," Ehteshami said, with hardliners on one side and others who see executions as further encouraging resistance.

Retrials and the release of dissidents are "measures of appeasement... to try and throw a bone" to the protesters, he added.

While such measures may appear insignificant, from the perspective of a "securitized, beleaguered regime... they think they are being magnanimous and responding to public pressure".



Sumy City Under Threat as Russian Forces Advance, Ukraine Says 

A fragment of a rocket is seen following a Russian strike on Sumy, Ukraine, on Tuesday, June 3, 2025. (AP) 
A fragment of a rocket is seen following a Russian strike on Sumy, Ukraine, on Tuesday, June 3, 2025. (AP) 
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Sumy City Under Threat as Russian Forces Advance, Ukraine Says 

A fragment of a rocket is seen following a Russian strike on Sumy, Ukraine, on Tuesday, June 3, 2025. (AP) 
A fragment of a rocket is seen following a Russian strike on Sumy, Ukraine, on Tuesday, June 3, 2025. (AP) 

Russian forces have widened the frontline in Ukraine's northern region of Sumy, officials and analysts said, and Moscow said it captured another village on Tuesday, bringing the region's capital closer to within the range of frontline drones.

The advance towards the city of Sumy - the administrative center of the Sumy region - comes as Kyiv showed its ability to continue fighting by conducting a series of strikes in recent days, hitting Russian strategic bombers and the Crimean Bridge.

Russian and Ukrainian delegations met in Türkiye for peace talks on Monday where Moscow said it would only agree to end the war if Kyiv cedes big new chunks of territory and accepts limits on the size of its army.

On Tuesday, Russia's defense ministry said its forces took control of Andriivka, after capturing several other villages in recent days. Kyiv said Russian artillery attack on the city of Sumy killed four people and injured 28.

The head of the military administration of the Sumy region, which lies north of Ukraine's second-largest city of Kharkiv, held a meeting on Tuesday to discuss the region's defense strategy.

"The situation in the border area of Sumy region remains complex, dynamic, but controllable," the head of the military administration, Oleh Hryhorov, said on Facebook.

"The Russian army is constantly shelling border villages, hitting residential buildings, farms, and civilian infrastructure facilities."

The dual advance with fierce frontline fighting and missile and drone strikes in Sumy hinders Ukraine's defense abilities along in the southeast Donbas region, of which Moscow is seeking full control, military analysts say.

On Monday, Ivan Shevtsov, a spokesman for the Ukrainian brigades fighting in Sumy, told Ukrainian national broadcaster that Russian forces had captured about 15 km (9 miles) along the frontline, going 6-7 km deep.

If Russian advances take the town of Yunakivka, Shevtsov said, the city of Sumy will be under a direct threat.

The Ukrainian Deep State blog of analysts who track the front line using open sources said Russian forces are moving to within 20-25 km of Sumy, putting the city within a range of shorter-range attack drones.

Reuters could not independently verify the Russian claim of capturing Andriivka and Ukraine's General Staff made no references to the village in its evening battlefield report. DeepState said early on Wednesday that Andriivka was now in Russian hands.

Over the weekend, Sumy's authorities ordered mandatory evacuation of 11 additional villages due to escalating Russian attacks.

Shevtsov said Russia wants to completely capture the Sumy region, not just make a small incursion.

"Just ... like other regions in eastern Ukraine," he added.