Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
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Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini

Iran's regime is divided in its response to months of unprecedented protests, wavering between repression and what it views as conciliatory gestures trying to quell the discontent, analysts say.

"The conflicting messages we are getting from the Iranian regime suggest an internal debate on how to deal with ongoing protests," said Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver.

"In most authoritarian regimes, there are hawks and doves" who disagree on how repressive the state should be during crises, he said.

The granting of retrials to several death-row protesters, and the release from detention of prominent dissidents, are signs that some seek to take a softer approach, AFP reported.

But a reminder of the hardline tack came Saturday when Iran executed two men for killing a paramilitary member during protest-related unrest.

Demonstrations began after the September 16 death in custody of Kurdish-Iranian Mahsa Amini, 22. She had been arrested by morality police who enforce a strict dress code which requires women to wear a scarf-like covering over their hair and neck.

The protests have escalated into calls for an end to the regime, posing the biggest challenge for the clerics since the 1979 revolution deposed the shah.

Authorities have responded with deadly violence that has left hundreds dead.

Thousands have been arrested and 14 detainees sentenced to hang, many for killing or attacking security force members, according to the judiciary.

The Supreme Court has upheld some of the death sentences and a total of four men have now been executed. The judiciary has also announced retrials for six of the 14.

This reflects a "political calculus", said US-based Iran expert Mehrzad Boroujerdi, co-author of "Post-Revolutionary Iran: A Political Handbook".

"They know that mass executions will bring more people into the streets and further agitate them. On the other hand, they want to send a signal that they are not reticent to execute protesters so that people are intimidated."

In what analysts see as another attempt to calm the situation, two prominent dissidents arrested early during the protests, Majid Tavakoli and Hossein Ronaghi, were freed weeks later. Ronaghi had been on a hunger strike.

The regime is using "everything from pressure release valves to long prison terms and executions. They are experimenting with these as they struggle to formulate a more clearly articulated policy," Boroujerdi said.

Anoush Ehteshami, director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at the UK's Durham University, said the retrials partly reflected mounting foreign and domestic pressure.

"But also within the regime there is division about how to handle this," Ehteshami said, with hardliners on one side and others who see executions as further encouraging resistance.

Retrials and the release of dissidents are "measures of appeasement... to try and throw a bone" to the protesters, he added.

While such measures may appear insignificant, from the perspective of a "securitized, beleaguered regime... they think they are being magnanimous and responding to public pressure".



Iran Says Seeks ‘Real and Fair’ Deal in Nuclear Talks with US

A man holds an anti-US banner during a rally in support of Gaza, in Tehran, Iran April 11, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
A man holds an anti-US banner during a rally in support of Gaza, in Tehran, Iran April 11, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
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Iran Says Seeks ‘Real and Fair’ Deal in Nuclear Talks with US

A man holds an anti-US banner during a rally in support of Gaza, in Tehran, Iran April 11, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
A man holds an anti-US banner during a rally in support of Gaza, in Tehran, Iran April 11, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters

Iran seeks a "real and fair" agreement with Washington on its nuclear program, a senior aide to supreme leader Ali Khamenei said Friday, setting the stage for a diplomatic showdown this weekend in Oman.

Longtime adversaries Iran and the United States are set to hold talks on Saturday aimed at reaching a deal on Tehran's nuclear program.

US President Donald Trump last month wrote to Khamenei urging negotiations, but warning of possible military action if Iran refuses.

"Far from putting up a show and merely talking in front of the cameras, Tehran is seeking a real and fair agreement, important and implementable proposals are ready," Khamenei adviser Ali Shamkhani posted on X.

He confirmed that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was heading to Oman "with full authority for indirect negotiations with America", adding that if Washington showed goodwill, the path forward would be "smooth".

Ahead of the talks, Trump reiterated that military action was "absolutely" possible if they failed.

Iran responded by saying Tehran could expel UN nuclear inspectors, prompting another US warning that this would be an "escalation".

Iran has consistently denied seeking to acquire nuclear weapons.

On Friday, foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said Iran was "giving diplomacy a genuine chance in good faith and full vigilance".

"America should appreciate this decision, which was made despite their hostile rhetoric," he said.

- 'Stupid actions' -

The talks were first announced by Trump during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington.

He said they would be high-level and "direct", but Iran insisted they would be "indirect".

"The talks will be conducted indirectly through the exchange of texts," claimed Iran's Fars news agency, without naming a source.

Araghchi and US special envoy Steve Witkoff are due to lead the talks in Oman, which has played a mediating role on the Iran nuclear issue.

Witkoff visited Iran's ally Russia on Friday for talks on Ukraine with President Vladimir Putin.

Expert-level consultations between Russia, China and Iran on nuclear issues were held in Moscow on Tuesday, Russia's foreign ministry said.

Iran has in recent months also been talking with the three European parties to the 2015 nuclear deal, Britain, France and Germany.

The 2015 accord saw sanctions relief for Iran in exchange for limits on its nuclear program.

On Friday, the European Union cautioned that there was "no alternative to diplomacy" on the Iranian nuclear issue.

Germany urged both sides to reach a "diplomatic solution", calling it a "positive development that there is a channel for dialogue between Iran and the United States".

On Thursday, Washington imposed additional sanctions on Iran, targeting its oil network and nuclear program.

Iran's nuclear agency chief Mohammad Eslami downplayed their impact.

"They applied maximum pressure with various sanctions, but they were unable to prevent the country from progressing," he said.

"They still think that they can stop this nation and country with threats and intimidation, psychological operations, or stupid actions."

- 'Threats and intimidation' -

Iran has been in the spotlight since Trump returned to office, and its regional allies have suffered major setbacks.

Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon have suffered heavy losses in conflicts with Israel sparked by the Palestinian group's October 2023 attack.

Since the Gaza war began, Iran and Israel have attacked each other directly for the first time.

Warning of military action against Iran should the talks fail, Trump said US ally Israel would "obviously be very much involved in that, be the leader of that".

Khamenei's adviser Shamkhani said such threats could prompt the expulsion of UN nuclear watchdog inspectors.

"Transfer of enriched materials to secure locations may also be considered," he added of Iran's uranium enrichment activities.

While the West wants to include Iran's ballistic missile program and regional influence in negotiations, Tehran maintains it will talk only about its nuclear program.

"If the American side does not raise irrelevant issues and demands and puts aside threats and intimidation, there is a good possibility of reaching an agreement," deputy foreign minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi said.

Hardline Iranian media are skeptical about the talks.

The Kayhan newspaper warned that entering negotiations with the United States in a bid to lift sanctions was a "failed strategy".

During his first term, Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal and reimposed sweeping economic sanctions.

Tehran adhered to the deal for a year before rolling back its own commitments.