Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
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Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini

Iran's regime is divided in its response to months of unprecedented protests, wavering between repression and what it views as conciliatory gestures trying to quell the discontent, analysts say.

"The conflicting messages we are getting from the Iranian regime suggest an internal debate on how to deal with ongoing protests," said Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver.

"In most authoritarian regimes, there are hawks and doves" who disagree on how repressive the state should be during crises, he said.

The granting of retrials to several death-row protesters, and the release from detention of prominent dissidents, are signs that some seek to take a softer approach, AFP reported.

But a reminder of the hardline tack came Saturday when Iran executed two men for killing a paramilitary member during protest-related unrest.

Demonstrations began after the September 16 death in custody of Kurdish-Iranian Mahsa Amini, 22. She had been arrested by morality police who enforce a strict dress code which requires women to wear a scarf-like covering over their hair and neck.

The protests have escalated into calls for an end to the regime, posing the biggest challenge for the clerics since the 1979 revolution deposed the shah.

Authorities have responded with deadly violence that has left hundreds dead.

Thousands have been arrested and 14 detainees sentenced to hang, many for killing or attacking security force members, according to the judiciary.

The Supreme Court has upheld some of the death sentences and a total of four men have now been executed. The judiciary has also announced retrials for six of the 14.

This reflects a "political calculus", said US-based Iran expert Mehrzad Boroujerdi, co-author of "Post-Revolutionary Iran: A Political Handbook".

"They know that mass executions will bring more people into the streets and further agitate them. On the other hand, they want to send a signal that they are not reticent to execute protesters so that people are intimidated."

In what analysts see as another attempt to calm the situation, two prominent dissidents arrested early during the protests, Majid Tavakoli and Hossein Ronaghi, were freed weeks later. Ronaghi had been on a hunger strike.

The regime is using "everything from pressure release valves to long prison terms and executions. They are experimenting with these as they struggle to formulate a more clearly articulated policy," Boroujerdi said.

Anoush Ehteshami, director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at the UK's Durham University, said the retrials partly reflected mounting foreign and domestic pressure.

"But also within the regime there is division about how to handle this," Ehteshami said, with hardliners on one side and others who see executions as further encouraging resistance.

Retrials and the release of dissidents are "measures of appeasement... to try and throw a bone" to the protesters, he added.

While such measures may appear insignificant, from the perspective of a "securitized, beleaguered regime... they think they are being magnanimous and responding to public pressure".



NKorea Says it Tested Hypersonic Intermediate Range missile Aimed at Remote Pacific Targets

A photo released by the official North Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) shows the launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) with a hypersonic warhead as payload, at an undisclosed location in North Korea, 06 January 2025 (issued 07 January 2025). EPA/KCNA  EDITORIAL USE ONLY
A photo released by the official North Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) shows the launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) with a hypersonic warhead as payload, at an undisclosed location in North Korea, 06 January 2025 (issued 07 January 2025). EPA/KCNA EDITORIAL USE ONLY
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NKorea Says it Tested Hypersonic Intermediate Range missile Aimed at Remote Pacific Targets

A photo released by the official North Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) shows the launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) with a hypersonic warhead as payload, at an undisclosed location in North Korea, 06 January 2025 (issued 07 January 2025). EPA/KCNA  EDITORIAL USE ONLY
A photo released by the official North Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) shows the launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) with a hypersonic warhead as payload, at an undisclosed location in North Korea, 06 January 2025 (issued 07 January 2025). EPA/KCNA EDITORIAL USE ONLY

North Korea said Tuesday its latest weapons test was a new hypersonic intermediate-range missile designed to strike remote targets in the Pacific as leader Kim Jong Un vowed to further expand his collection of nuclear-capable weapons to counter rival nations.

The North Korean state media report came a day after South Korea’s military said it detected North Korea launching a missile that flew 1,100 kilometers (685 miles) before landing in waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan, The Associated Press reported. The launch, conducted weeks before Donald Trump returns as US president, came off a torrid year in weapons testing.

North Korea demonstrated multiple weapons systems last year that can target its neighbors and the United States, including solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles, and there are concerns that its military capabilities could advance further through technology transfers from Russia, as the two countries align over the war in Ukraine.

North Korea in recent years has flight tested various intermediate-range missiles, which if perfected, could reach the US Pacific military hub of Guam. In recent months, North has been testing combining these missiles with purported hypersonic warheads to improve their survivability.

North Korea since 2021 has been testing various hypersonic weapons designed to fly at more than five times the speed of sound. The speed and maneuverability of such weapons aim to withstand regional missile defense systems. However, it’s unclear whether these missiles are consistently flying at the speeds the North claims.

The North’s state media said Kim supervised Monday’s launch, and that the weapon traveled 1,500 kilometers (932 miles), during which it reached two different peaks of 99.8 kilometers (62 miles) and 42.5 kilometers (26.4 miles) and achieved a speed amounting to 12 times the speed of sound, before accurately striking a sea target.

Lee Sung Joon, spokesperson of South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the South Korean military believes North Korea was exaggerating capabilities of the system, saying the missile covered less distance and that there was no second peak.
Lee said the test was likely a followup to another hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile test last April and said it would be difficult to use such systems in a relatively small territory like the Korean Peninsula. He said the South Korean and US militaries were continuing to analyze the missile.
Kim described the missile as a crucial achievement in his goals to bolster the North’s nuclear deterrence by building an arsenal “no one can respond to,” according to the official Korean Central News Agency.
“The hypersonic missile system will reliably contain any rivals in the Pacific region that can affect the security of our state,” the agency quoted Kim as saying.
Kim reiterated that his nuclear push was aimed at countering “different security threats the hostile forces posed to our state,” but KCNA didn’t mention any direct criticism toward Washington, Seoul or Tokyo.
The launch took place while US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was visiting Seoul for talks with South Korean allies over the North Korean nuclear threat and other issues.
In a news conference with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul on Monday, Blinken condemned North Korea’s launch, which violated UN Security Council resolutions against the North's weapons programs. He also reiterated concerns about the growing alignment between North Korea and Russia in Moscow’s war on Ukraine. He described the military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow as a “two-way street,” saying Russia has been providing military equipment and training to the North and “intends to share space and satellite technology.”

According to US, Ukrainian and South Korean assessments, North Korea has sent more than 10,000 troops and conventional weapons systems to support Moscow’s war campaign. There are concerns that Russia could transfer to North Korea advanced weapons technology in return, which could potentially enhance the threat posed by Kim’s nuclear-armed military.

At a year-end political conference, Kim Jong Un vowed to implement the “toughest” anti-US policy and criticized the Biden administration’s efforts to strengthen security cooperation with Seoul and Tokyo, which he described as a “nuclear military bloc for aggression.”
North Korean state media did not specify Kim’s policy plans or mention any specific comments about Trump. During his first term as president, Trump met Kim three times for talks on the North’s nuclear program.
Even if Trump returns to the White House, a quick resumption of diplomacy with North Korea could be unlikely. Kim’s strengthened position — built on his expanded nuclear arsenal, deepening alliance with Russia and the weakening enforcement of US international sanctions — presents new challenges to resolving the nuclear standoff, experts say.