Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
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Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini

Iran's regime is divided in its response to months of unprecedented protests, wavering between repression and what it views as conciliatory gestures trying to quell the discontent, analysts say.

"The conflicting messages we are getting from the Iranian regime suggest an internal debate on how to deal with ongoing protests," said Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver.

"In most authoritarian regimes, there are hawks and doves" who disagree on how repressive the state should be during crises, he said.

The granting of retrials to several death-row protesters, and the release from detention of prominent dissidents, are signs that some seek to take a softer approach, AFP reported.

But a reminder of the hardline tack came Saturday when Iran executed two men for killing a paramilitary member during protest-related unrest.

Demonstrations began after the September 16 death in custody of Kurdish-Iranian Mahsa Amini, 22. She had been arrested by morality police who enforce a strict dress code which requires women to wear a scarf-like covering over their hair and neck.

The protests have escalated into calls for an end to the regime, posing the biggest challenge for the clerics since the 1979 revolution deposed the shah.

Authorities have responded with deadly violence that has left hundreds dead.

Thousands have been arrested and 14 detainees sentenced to hang, many for killing or attacking security force members, according to the judiciary.

The Supreme Court has upheld some of the death sentences and a total of four men have now been executed. The judiciary has also announced retrials for six of the 14.

This reflects a "political calculus", said US-based Iran expert Mehrzad Boroujerdi, co-author of "Post-Revolutionary Iran: A Political Handbook".

"They know that mass executions will bring more people into the streets and further agitate them. On the other hand, they want to send a signal that they are not reticent to execute protesters so that people are intimidated."

In what analysts see as another attempt to calm the situation, two prominent dissidents arrested early during the protests, Majid Tavakoli and Hossein Ronaghi, were freed weeks later. Ronaghi had been on a hunger strike.

The regime is using "everything from pressure release valves to long prison terms and executions. They are experimenting with these as they struggle to formulate a more clearly articulated policy," Boroujerdi said.

Anoush Ehteshami, director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at the UK's Durham University, said the retrials partly reflected mounting foreign and domestic pressure.

"But also within the regime there is division about how to handle this," Ehteshami said, with hardliners on one side and others who see executions as further encouraging resistance.

Retrials and the release of dissidents are "measures of appeasement... to try and throw a bone" to the protesters, he added.

While such measures may appear insignificant, from the perspective of a "securitized, beleaguered regime... they think they are being magnanimous and responding to public pressure".



Top Trump Iran Negotiator Says Visits US Aircraft Carrier in Middle East

US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff delivers a press conference upon the signing of the declaration on deploying post-ceasefire force in Ukraine, during the so-called "Coalition of the Willing" summit, at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, January 6, 2026. (Reuters)
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff delivers a press conference upon the signing of the declaration on deploying post-ceasefire force in Ukraine, during the so-called "Coalition of the Willing" summit, at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, January 6, 2026. (Reuters)
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Top Trump Iran Negotiator Says Visits US Aircraft Carrier in Middle East

US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff delivers a press conference upon the signing of the declaration on deploying post-ceasefire force in Ukraine, during the so-called "Coalition of the Willing" summit, at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, January 6, 2026. (Reuters)
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff delivers a press conference upon the signing of the declaration on deploying post-ceasefire force in Ukraine, during the so-called "Coalition of the Willing" summit, at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, January 6, 2026. (Reuters)

US President Donald Trump's lead Iran negotiator Steve Witkoff on Saturday said he visited the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier currently in the Arabian Sea, with Washington and Tehran due to hold further talks soon.

"Today, Adm. Brad Cooper, Commander of US Naval Forces Central Command, Jared Kushner, and I met with the brave sailors and Marines aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, her strike group, and Carrier Air Wing 9 who are keeping us safe and upholding President Trump's message of peace through strength," said Witkoff in a social media post.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Saturday he hoped talks with the United States would resume soon, while reiterating Tehran's red lines and warning against any American attack.


Israel’s Netanyahu Expected to Meet Trump in US on Wednesday and Discuss Iran

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers a speech during a special session to mark the 77th anniversary of the Knesset's establishment and the 60th anniversary of the dedication of the current building at the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, in Jerusalem, 02 February 2026. (EPA)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers a speech during a special session to mark the 77th anniversary of the Knesset's establishment and the 60th anniversary of the dedication of the current building at the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, in Jerusalem, 02 February 2026. (EPA)
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Israel’s Netanyahu Expected to Meet Trump in US on Wednesday and Discuss Iran

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers a speech during a special session to mark the 77th anniversary of the Knesset's establishment and the 60th anniversary of the dedication of the current building at the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, in Jerusalem, 02 February 2026. (EPA)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers a speech during a special session to mark the 77th anniversary of the Knesset's establishment and the 60th anniversary of the dedication of the current building at the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, in Jerusalem, 02 February 2026. (EPA)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet US President Donald Trump on Wednesday in Washington, where they will discuss negotiations with Iran, Netanyahu's office said on Saturday.

Iranian and US officials held indirect nuclear ‌talks in the ‌Omani capital ‌Muscat ⁠on Friday. ‌Both sides said more talks were expected to be held again soon.

A regional diplomat briefed by Tehran on the talks told Reuters Iran insisted ⁠on its "right to enrich uranium" ‌during the negotiations with ‍the US, ‍and that Tehran's missile capabilities ‍were not raised in the discussions.

Iranian officials have ruled out putting Iran's missiles - one of the largest such arsenals in the region - up ⁠for discussion, and have said Tehran wants recognition of its right to enrich uranium.

"The Prime Minister believes that any negotiations must include limiting ballistic missiles and halting support for the Iranian axis," Netanyahu's office said in a ‌statement.


Italy FM Rules Out Joining Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’

Italy's Minister for Foreign Affairs Antonio Tajani speaks to the press during the EPP Leaders’ meeting, in Zagreb, Croatia, 30 January 2026. (EPA)
Italy's Minister for Foreign Affairs Antonio Tajani speaks to the press during the EPP Leaders’ meeting, in Zagreb, Croatia, 30 January 2026. (EPA)
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Italy FM Rules Out Joining Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’

Italy's Minister for Foreign Affairs Antonio Tajani speaks to the press during the EPP Leaders’ meeting, in Zagreb, Croatia, 30 January 2026. (EPA)
Italy's Minister for Foreign Affairs Antonio Tajani speaks to the press during the EPP Leaders’ meeting, in Zagreb, Croatia, 30 January 2026. (EPA)

Italy will not take part in US President Donald Trump's "Board of Peace", Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said Saturday, citing "insurmountable" constitutional issues.

Trump launched his "Board of Peace" at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January and some 19 countries have signed its founding charter.

But Italy's constitution bars the country from joining an organization led by a single foreign leader.

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, a Trump ally, last month noted "constitutional problems" with joining, but suggested Trump could perhaps reopen the framework "to meet the needs not only of Italy, but also of other European countries".

Tajani appeared Saturday to rule that out.

"We cannot participate in the Board of Peace because there is a constitutional limit," he told the ANSA news agency.

"This is insurmountable from a legal standpoint," he said, the day after meeting US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Vice President JD Vance at the Olympics in Milan.

Although originally meant to oversee Gaza's rebuilding, the board's charter does not limit its role to the Palestinian territory and appears to want to rival the United Nations.