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UAE Urges Major Course Correction in Climate Change

The Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, Sultan Al Jaber, speaks at the World Government Summit (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, Sultan Al Jaber, speaks at the World Government Summit (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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UAE Urges Major Course Correction in Climate Change

The Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, Sultan Al Jaber, speaks at the World Government Summit (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, Sultan Al Jaber, speaks at the World Government Summit (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The UAE asserted the need to move from gradual steps to substantial progress and a quantum leap through partnerships, political will, and unified climate action.

It affirmed its endeavors to apply positive approaches as the host country of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP 28) and activate the principle of partnership to ensure tangible results at the conference, which will be held in Dubai Expo City at the end of 2023.

The Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, Sultan Al Jaber, stressed that the world is far from achieving the goal of avoiding a rise in the planet's temperature above 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Al Jaber, also Cop28 President-designate, said the "hard reality" was that global emissions must fall 43 percent by 2030, asserting the need to shift from incremental steps to transformational progress.

He stressed that ensuring easy access to capital at a reasonable cost is essential to achieving comprehensive climate progress, highlighting the urgent need to reform international financial institutions and multilateral banks.

Al Jaber identified the essential pillars for moving from setting goals to implementing them as allocating capital and ensuring easy access to capital at a reasonable cost.

"We need to double the annual funding allocated to protecting the communities most vulnerable to the repercussions of climate change, investing in nature-based solutions, preserving rainforests, and protecting biodiversity."

The minister reviewed the economic benefits of enhancing and accelerating climate action, explaining that clean investments already drive sustainable growth, stressing the need to increase investment in all areas of reducing emissions and view these investments as an opportunity, not a burden.

"Economists estimate that decarbonizing industry, the energy sector, power generation, transportation, and food systems could create an additional 12 trillion dollars in economic value by 2030."

The presidency of the Conference of the Parties (COP 28) considers addressing the challenge of climate change as the most significant opportunity for inclusive growth since the first industrial revolution.

Al Jaber said he aimed to lay out a road map that was inclusive, results-orientated, and "far from business as usual."

Nations at COP 28 are expected for the first time to conduct a "global stocktake" that examines whether pledges made under the 2015 Paris climate agreement go far enough to halt warming emissions.

The official reaffirmed that the presidency of COP 28 would listen to all parties and interact with them, noting that the UAE wanted the world to remember the conference for its success in uniting everyone behind achievement and work.

"There are moments in history when humanity comes together to fight a common threat. Let's prove to ourselves that we can do it once again. Let's put our differences aside. Fight climate change, not each other," he said.

The minister asserted that game-changing solutions could be achieved if the collective political will exists.

- Oil Market

UAE Minister of Energy Suhail Al Mazrouei said that the effort of the OPEC+ coalition, the pre-calculated decisions, and dealing with variables with high professionalism balanced and stabilized the global oil sector in 2022.

The oil sector would witness in 2023 many challenges in the long term, represented by the lack of sufficient investments, said Al Mazrouei.

He noted that the energy sector is unlikely to witness any challenges in the short run that may affect the global market.

The electricity market project aims to establish a national market for electricity trading, with the possibility of expanding abroad and enhancing opportunities for exporting electricity.

Mazrouei said that the ministry is working to develop the electricity market in a way that allows for gradual expansion to include more products and commodities and increase the participation rate in the market.

The electricity market, when completed, is expected to enhance the efficiency of the country's network and ensure energy security and sustainability.

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Notable Shift in Agriculture, Food World Map Expected in Next Decade

Kashmiri farmers assemble freshly harvested plums to pack the fruit for export, at an orchard on the outskirts of Srinagar, India (EPA)
Kashmiri farmers assemble freshly harvested plums to pack the fruit for export, at an orchard on the outskirts of Srinagar, India (EPA)
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Notable Shift in Agriculture, Food World Map Expected in Next Decade

Kashmiri farmers assemble freshly harvested plums to pack the fruit for export, at an orchard on the outskirts of Srinagar, India (EPA)
Kashmiri farmers assemble freshly harvested plums to pack the fruit for export, at an orchard on the outskirts of Srinagar, India (EPA)

Emerging economies have increasingly driven global agricultural market developments over the last 20 years and are projected to continue to do so over the next decade, but with regional shifts linked to changing demographics and new economic affluence, according to a report released on Tuesday by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2025 is the key global reference for medium-term prospects for agricultural commodity markets, and this year’s edition marks the 20th edition of the joint publication.

For two decades, the report has analyzed trends in the demographic and economic drivers of agricultural commodity supply and demand, projected the shifts in production and consumption locations, and assessed the resulting changes in international agricultural trade patterns.

According to the report, seen by Asharq Al-Awsat, a notable shift expected over the coming decade is the increasing role of India, Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa and the declining role played by China.

It said that while China accounted for 28% of growth in global consumption of agriculture and fisheries in the previous decade, its share of additional demand over the coming decade is projected to fall to 11%, attributed not only to a declining population and slower income growth but also to a stabilization of nutrition patterns.

Also, India and Southeast Asian countries are projected to account for 31% of global consumption growth by 2033, driven by their growing urban population and increasing affluence.

Among predominantly low-income regions, the report said Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to contribute a sizeable share of additional global consumption (18%), primarily due to population growth-driven demand for food.

Total agricultural and fisheries consumption (as food, feed, fuel and other industrial raw materials) is projected to grow by 1.1% annually over the next decade, with nearly all of the additional consumption projected to occur in low- and middle-income countries.

The report noted that food calorie intake is expected to increase by 7% in middle-income countries, largely due to greater consumption of staples, livestock products and fats.

Meanwhile, calorie intake in low-income countries will grow at 4%, too slowly to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal target of zero hunger by 2030.

“The Outlook confirms the need to implement strategies that bridge productivity gaps in low- and middle-income countries to increase domestic production and boost farmers’ incomes,” said FAO Director-General QU Dongyu.

For his part, OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said, “This Outlook has served as a valuable reference for policy planning, providing a sound evidence base and data for medium-term prospects for agricultural commodity markets. Over the coming decade, the volumes of agricultural commodities traded globally is expected to increase between net exporting regions and net importing regions, but with regional shifts reflecting increased global consumption in India and Southeast Asian countries.”

He added, “Well-functioning agricultural markets, reducing food loss and waste, and more productive and less polluting forms of production will remain critically important for global food security and to ensure rural livelihoods can and do benefit from global agrifood value chains.”

Reducing food loss and waste

According to the report, growth in crop production is projected to be driven primarily by productivity increases on existing land rather than an expansion of the cultivated area, leading to a decline in agriculture’s global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity.

Similarly, it said a significant proportion of the growth in livestock and fish production is also expected to result from productivity improvements, although herd expansions will also contribute to production growth.

Meanwhile, direct emissions from agriculture are therefore projected to increase by 5% over the projection period.
The report said that despite these expected productivity improvements, particularly in least productive countries in Africa and Asia, significant productivity gaps are projected to persist, challenging farm incomes and food security and increasing countries’ requirements for food imports.

Also, technological gaps, limited input use and natural climatic conditions remain some of the key factors underpinning disparities in agricultural productivity, it noted.
The report also said that well-functioning international agricultural commodity markets will remain important for global food security, as 20% of calories are traded and rural livelihoods can benefit from participation in markets and global agrifood value chains.
It then revealed that the underlying causes behind the peaks in international agricultural prices experienced in 2022 are subsiding and real international reference prices for main agricultural commodities are projected to resume their slight declining trend over the next 10 years.

However, this report notes that this may not be reflected in local retail food prices.
Also, this year's Outlook features a scenario that simulates the impact of halving food losses along supply chains and food waste at the retail and consumer levels by 2030.

It said the scenario projects a potential 4% reduction in global agricultural GHG emissions by 2030, distributed relatively evenly across countries regardless of income levels.