Saudi Aramco Hikes Official Selling Prices of Arab Crude

Oil markets are optimistic about rising Chinese demand. (Reuters)
Oil markets are optimistic about rising Chinese demand. (Reuters)
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Saudi Aramco Hikes Official Selling Prices of Arab Crude

Oil markets are optimistic about rising Chinese demand. (Reuters)
Oil markets are optimistic about rising Chinese demand. (Reuters)

Saudi Aramco has increased Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for April-loading crude to Asia, Europe, and America largely in line with expectations of oil demand recovery during the second quarter of 2023.

For Aramco's key customer base in Asia, differentials for the flagship Arab Light grade were lifted to Platts Dubai/DME Oman +$2.50/b for loading next month.

Arab Light for April to the US was up +$6.65/b over ASCI (Argus Sour Crude Index).

This coincides with optimism in the oil markets about the increasing demand for oil from China, the biggest oil importer globally.

Brent and WTI notched their third biggest weekly percentage gains this year as strong Chinese economic data fed hopes for oil demand growth.

Brent crude futures traded at $85 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled at $80 a barrel. Both benchmarks posted their highest closing levels since Feb. 13.

The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, told the French publication Liberation that "Russia has lost the energy battle."

Russia's position as a significant energy supplier has suffered a permanent setback following the West's abandonment of Moscow's oil and gas due to its war in Ukraine, according to the head of IEA.

He noted that Moscow's oil and gas exports have fallen by 40 percent since its military forces invaded Ukraine a year ago, adding that this is just the start of its problems.

Birol also emphasized that the departure of foreign experts from Russia would result in a decrease in oil and gas production without their technical support.

It would take years to build pipelines from Western Siberia to China, he added.

“Russia's role in international energy affairs will be much less important in the future,” Birol said.

Exports via a major pipeline, which delivers natural gas to mainland Europe from the UK through Belgium, have been shut due to an equipment failure, according to Bloomberg.

The late Saturday halt to the link’s export capacities is expected to last until March 8, operator Interconnector Ltd said in a notice on its website Sunday.

The pipeline has been an important source of supplies to the European Union after severe cuts in exports from Russia. Even so, flows from Britain already fell last week as a late-winter cold snap boosts the country’s domestic demand for the fuel.



Lebanon’s Struggling Economy Slides Toward Full Recession

The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
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Lebanon’s Struggling Economy Slides Toward Full Recession

The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)

The ongoing Israeli war on Lebanon has led to significant economic losses estimated between $10 billion and $20 billion.

This range reflects the difficulty in accurately assessing the damage amid Israel’s ongoing military operations, including airstrikes and ground attacks.

The destruction of homes, infrastructure, and farmland has contributed to a state of uncertainty, along with an unprecedented wave of displacement affecting many families.

Experts agree that reliable economic data is hard to obtain while the conflict continues.

Reports from the Ministry of Health and international organizations said nearly 3,000 people have been killed and around 15,000 injured, mostly civilians.

Additionally, about 1.4 million people have been displaced from their homes, representing roughly a quarter of Lebanon’s population.

Growing economic crisis ahead

The war came at a time when Lebanon’s economy was already struggling after five years of crisis.

According to Mohammad Choucair, head of the Economic Bodies Association, the situation is worsening rapidly, threatening serious economic and social consequences.

Current estimates suggest that direct losses from the conflict could reach between $10 billion and $12 billion, impacting various sectors.

As the war continues, key sectors like tourism, agriculture, and trade are experiencing a sharp decline in business activity.

Many small and medium-sized enterprises are being forced to close or suspend operations due to direct damage from attacks, reduced consumer demand, and disruptions in trade and supply chains caused by the influx of displaced people.

International financial institutions are warning that the ongoing Israeli attacks could continue for several more months, possibly lasting until mid-2025.

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) forecasts a 7% contraction in Lebanon’s GDP by the end of this year, followed by a 10% decline next year.

This would bring the total economic decline to nearly 60% from the peak GDP of around $53 billion recorded at the end of 2018.