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Iraq: Speculations Point to Clash between Al-Halbousi, Shiite Allies

A general view of the Iraqi parliament in Baghdad, Iraq, January 9, 2022. (Reuters)
A general view of the Iraqi parliament in Baghdad, Iraq, January 9, 2022. (Reuters)
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Iraq: Speculations Point to Clash between Al-Halbousi, Shiite Allies

A general view of the Iraqi parliament in Baghdad, Iraq, January 9, 2022. (Reuters)
A general view of the Iraqi parliament in Baghdad, Iraq, January 9, 2022. (Reuters)

Iraqi political circles are suggesting that Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad al-Halbousi, is seeking to promote himself as the sole leader among the Sunni forces and parties disputing over influence and power.

They noted that al-Halbousi was fighting his opponents within the Sunni ranks on the one hand, and facing his allies in the Shiite Coordination Framework, on the other.

Observers pointed to the risks of his fight on the Sunni front, especially with the presence of figures who have great influence within the Sunni community. Those include the former Minister of Finance, Rafi al-Issawi, who has returned to Baghdad recently, former Speaker of the Mosul Parliament, Osama al-Nujaifi, and the head of the Azm Alliance, MP Muthanna Al-Samarrai.

However, al-Halbousi’s greatest challenge, according to the same observers, lies in his expected battle against the forces of the Coordination Framework, with whom he forged the State Administration Coalition that brought about the current government of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.

A statement issued by the speaker’s office a few days ago, in which he denied “the existence of differences with the prime minister”, has in fact raised suspicions over a clash between al-Halbousi and his Shiite allies.

Moreover, reports about a dispute between the speaker and the prime minister are not baseless. Circles close to al-Halbousi say that al-Sudani has transferred large sums of money from the Reconstruction Fund for areas affected by terrorist operations - which are dedicated to provinces of western and northern Iraq occupied by ISIS in 2014 - in favor of other provinces in the south and center of the country.

Meanwhile, sources close to the Shiite Framework forces, pointed to some disappointment with the terms of the alliance that brought them together with al-Halbousi and his Sovereignty alliance, following the formation of the Sudanese government at the end of October 2022.

The sources said that some of the political forces within the Framework, especially those that have armed factions spread in the Anbar governorate, “are exerting pressure to dismiss al-Halbousi or force him to negotiate a new agreement.”

Thus, the “honeymoon” that lasted for about six months between the speaker and the Shiite Framework forces is eroding in the eyes of most local observers, with speculations that he could be dismissed from Parliament if the differences between the two sides continued.

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Arab World

Hezbollah Leader Rejects Lebanon-Israel Direct Talks, Vows to Confront Israel

People hold up portraits of Hezbollah leader, Naim Qassem, top, and slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah as displaced residents drive back to their villages, in Jiyyeh, near Sidon, southern Lebanon, Friday, April 17, 2026, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP)
People hold up portraits of Hezbollah leader, Naim Qassem, top, and slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah as displaced residents drive back to their villages, in Jiyyeh, near Sidon, southern Lebanon, Friday, April 17, 2026, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP)
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Hezbollah Leader Rejects Lebanon-Israel Direct Talks, Vows to Confront Israel

People hold up portraits of Hezbollah leader, Naim Qassem, top, and slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah as displaced residents drive back to their villages, in Jiyyeh, near Sidon, southern Lebanon, Friday, April 17, 2026, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP)
People hold up portraits of Hezbollah leader, Naim Qassem, top, and slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah as displaced residents drive back to their villages, in Jiyyeh, near Sidon, southern Lebanon, Friday, April 17, 2026, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP)

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem on Monday rejected Lebanon's planned direct negotiations with Israel, calling them a "grave sin" that will destabilize Lebanon. 

Lebanon and Israel's US ambassadors held two meetings in Washington over the past weeks, the first of their kind in decades. 

The first meeting led to a truce in the Israel-Hezbollah war, while Beirut has been preparing for direct negotiations with the aim of striking a peace deal with Israel. The two countries have officially been at war since 1948. 

"We categorically reject direct negotiations with Israel, and those in power should know that their actions will not benefit Lebanon or themselves," Qassem said in a statement, aired by the group's channel Al-Manar. 

He called on authorities to "back down from their grave sin that is putting Lebanon in a spiral of instability". 

He added that the Lebanese government "cannot continue while it is neglecting Lebanon's rights, giving up land, and confronting its resistant people". 

Lebanese authorities have repeatedly stated that the goal of the US-sponsored negotiations is to stop the war, secure Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and return displaced people to their homes after the fighting forced more than a million people to flee. 

"These direct negotiations and their outcomes are as if they do not exist for us, and they do not concern us in the slightest," Qassem said. 

"We will continue our defensive resistance for Lebanon and its people," he added. 

"No matter how much the enemy threatens, we will not back down, we will not bow down, and we will not be defeated. 

"We will not give up our weapons... and the Israeli enemy will not remain on a single inch of our occupied land." 

Tehran-backed Hezbollah drew Lebanon into the Middle East war on March 2 by firing rockets at Israel to avenge the death of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli strikes. 

Since the truce went into force on April 17, Israeli strikes have killed at least 36 people, according to an AFP tally of Lebanese health ministry figures. 

Hezbollah has meanwhile claimed several attacks on Israeli troops in southern Lebanon, as well as missile and drone launches at northern Israel, saying it is responding to Israeli "violations". 

According to details of the truce released by the US State Department, which said both Lebanon and Israel agreed to it, Israel reserves the right to continue targeting Hezbollah to prevent "planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks". 

Hezbollah strongly rejects this clause, saying the text of the agreement was not presented to the cabinet, in which the group and its allies are represented. 

"Has the government decided to work alongside the Israeli enemy against its own people?" Qassem said in his speech. 

Israeli attacks on Lebanon killed more than 2,500 people since March 2, according to Lebanese authorities. 

Arab World

Did Israel’s War on Lebanon Drive Syrian Refugees Back Home?

Syrian refugees in Lebanon return to their country through the Masnaa crossing after the fall of the Syrian regime in December 2024. (EPA)
Syrian refugees in Lebanon return to their country through the Masnaa crossing after the fall of the Syrian regime in December 2024. (EPA)
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Did Israel’s War on Lebanon Drive Syrian Refugees Back Home?

Syrian refugees in Lebanon return to their country through the Masnaa crossing after the fall of the Syrian regime in December 2024. (EPA)
Syrian refugees in Lebanon return to their country through the Masnaa crossing after the fall of the Syrian regime in December 2024. (EPA)

Israel’s war on Lebanon has accelerated the return of Syrian refugees, but officials and aid agencies say it has not by itself resolved, or fundamentally transformed, the displacement crisis.

Nearly one million Syrians remain in Lebanon despite Israel’s wars on Lebanon when Hezbollah opened a “support front” in solidarity with Hamas in 2023. Many refugees, meanwhile, still view remaining in Lebanon as preferable to returning to a country where homes and jobs may no longer exist.

Others have left. According to the UN refugee agency (UNHCR), more than 593,000 Syrian refugees have returned from Lebanon since January 2025, while Syrian authorities estimate around 260,000 crossed back between March 2 and April 20, 2026 as hostilities intensified.

Official figures show 95 Syrians were killed and 130 wounded in the latest round of fighting between March 2 and April 17.

For some, however, war has not changed the situation.

Faisal, a 41-year-old construction worker from Deir Ezzor living in Mount Lebanon for a decade, said returning to Syria remains too uncertain.

“Going back now means returning to the unknown,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat. “Here, despite the risks, I can still support my family.”

Lebanese Social Affairs Minister Haneen Sayed argued the rise in returns cannot be attributed mainly to war.

She told Asharq Al-Awsat that a government return plan adopted in June 2025 marked the real turning point, supported by administrative facilitations, financial incentives and coordination between Lebanese General Security and the UN refugee agency.

According to Sayed, 581,107 Syrians had returned before the latest conflict erupted in early March, while another 198,404 left during the war.

“That shows return was already under way before the fighting,” she stated, noting that many refugees could have moved to safer parts of Lebanon but instead chose Syria, suggesting the government’s strategy was gaining traction.

She said Syrian authorities had also contributed through policies intended to facilitate return and reintegration. Still, she stopped short of calling it a lasting solution.

“The displacement crisis is on its way to being resolved, but it has not reached a final settlement,” she underlined, noting Lebanon was preparing a review of the return plan later this year.

At the same time, she warned the war had created a new Lebanese internal displacement crisis, adding another humanitarian burden.

Lisa Abou Khaled, spokeswoman for the UNHCR in Lebanon, said decisions to return still depend less on war than on conditions inside Syria, including shelter, healthcare, education and livelihoods.

The current hostilities may have hastened returns for some, she told Asharq Al-Awsat, but often as a forced response rather than a voluntary shift.

“When refugees feel they have no alternative but to return, our role is to reduce risks and support them through the process,” she remarked.

UNHCR provides returnees with information, transport support and a $100 grant per person to help cover immediate needs.

Arab World

Syria’s Sharaa, Lebanon’s Jumblatt Discuss Sweida Fallout, Reject ‘Alliance of Minorities’

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt meet in Damascus on Saturday. (SANA)
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt meet in Damascus on Saturday. (SANA)
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Syria’s Sharaa, Lebanon’s Jumblatt Discuss Sweida Fallout, Reject ‘Alliance of Minorities’

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt meet in Damascus on Saturday. (SANA)
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt meet in Damascus on Saturday. (SANA)

A meeting in Damascus on Saturday between Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt focused on containing the fallout from violence in Syria’s Sweida province, strengthening Lebanese-Syrian ties and rejecting what both sides described as an “alliance of minorities.”

Jumblatt, former head of Lebanon’s Progressive Socialist Party, met Sharaa at the People’s Palace in Damascus amid heightened regional tensions and strains along the Lebanese-Syrian border.

A statement from the PSP said the talks stressed improving Lebanese-Syrian relations in a way that serves the common interests of both countries, while rejecting the “alliance of minorities” theory and emphasizing the social and geographic ties linking the two neighbors.

The statement reaffirmed Syria’s unity and called for addressing the aftermath of the deadly unrest in Sweida, the predominantly Druze province in southern Syria.

A brief Syrian presidency statement said the two sides reviewed recent regional developments.

Accompanying Jumblatt to Damascus, Lebanese MP Hadi Abou Al-Hassan said the talks focused on deepening bilateral ties based on respecting the sovereignty and independence of each country, while recognizing longstanding historical and social links.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat Syria’s new leadership was seeking to redefine relations with Lebanon after what he called the end of Syrian tutelage following the fall of Bashar al-Assad.

Abou Al-Hassan said “some actors in Syria and Israel were trying to revive the idea of an ‘alliance of minorities’, but that Damascus no longer viewed the concept as relevant and was instead focused on its strategic Arab ties.”

Saturday's talks also touched on what he described as shared concerns over Israeli escalation against both countries, including fears of a proposed “yellow line” security belt stretching across southern Lebanon from Naqoura to Mount Hermon and potentially into southern Syria.

He noted that such concerns reflected worries over “a dangerous Israeli plan that required coordination and joint efforts to confront.”

Developments in Sweida took up much of the discussions, particularly given Jumblatt’s role in containing the repercussions and his rejection of calls to attach the province to Israel or seek Israeli protection for the region.

Abou Al-Hassan said the talks stressed addressing the fallout from the violence and building on a meeting in Amman involving Syria, Jordan and the United States.

Jumblatt also underscored “support for Syria’s unity and for a strong central state guaranteeing equal rights for all citizens, while preventing any forces from challenging state sovereignty,” he said.

The meeting comes as Lebanese-Syrian ties have improved through border coordination and anti-smuggling efforts, despite Syrian concerns over reported weapons-smuggling tunnels and reports of a security cell in Damascus allegedly linked to Hezbollah, an ally of the ousted regime.

Abou Al-Hassan said both countries needed to dispel mutual concerns and build trust.