Israeli Intelligence Expects War that 'No One Wants'

 Two Israeli soldiers react during an army operation near Nablus. (AFP)
Two Israeli soldiers react during an army operation near Nablus. (AFP)
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Israeli Intelligence Expects War that 'No One Wants'

 Two Israeli soldiers react during an army operation near Nablus. (AFP)
Two Israeli soldiers react during an army operation near Nablus. (AFP)

The Military Intelligence Division of the Israeli Army (Aman) saw that the possibility of war breaking out in the region has increased over the past months.

In a report issued on Tuesday and published by Haaretz, Aman considered that the current escalation during the month of Ramadan stemmed from three central developments that led to changes in Israel’s strategic environment. Those include decline of American interest in developments in the Middle East, Iran’s self-confidence through attempts to challenge Israel directly, and increasing instability within the Palestinian arena.

The military editor of Haaretz, Amos Harel, indicated that the cooling of relations with Washington began to affect the military field.

He noted that although the Israeli army boasts of close relations with the US Army Central Command (CENTCOM), the prevailing impression is that the Americans were less enthusiastic about Israel’s sharing of intelligence information and operational plans.

The report considered that the leaders in Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas were not interested in a confrontation with Israel, and they expressed this position in various means and messages.

However, they are taking unprecedented military steps and operations that “could set the region on fire,” according to the report.

In fact, Iran and its proxies believe that the massive demonstrations taking place in Tel Aviv in protest against a plan to weaken the judiciary, tension with the Palestinians, and the disagreements with the US administration, were all signs of Israel’s increasing vulnerability.

While the report underlined that the chances of war breaking out were not great, because “no one wants it”, it stressed that the region could be dragged into war because of the temptations offered by the internal Israeli crisis.



Trump Administration Cancels Travel for Refugees Already Cleared to Resettle in the US

 An Afghan refugee man, who asked not to use his name and not to show his face fearing his identity could lead to his capture, speaks during an interview with The Associated Press, in Islamabad, Pakistan, Wednesday, Jan. 22, 2025. (AP)
An Afghan refugee man, who asked not to use his name and not to show his face fearing his identity could lead to his capture, speaks during an interview with The Associated Press, in Islamabad, Pakistan, Wednesday, Jan. 22, 2025. (AP)
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Trump Administration Cancels Travel for Refugees Already Cleared to Resettle in the US

 An Afghan refugee man, who asked not to use his name and not to show his face fearing his identity could lead to his capture, speaks during an interview with The Associated Press, in Islamabad, Pakistan, Wednesday, Jan. 22, 2025. (AP)
An Afghan refugee man, who asked not to use his name and not to show his face fearing his identity could lead to his capture, speaks during an interview with The Associated Press, in Islamabad, Pakistan, Wednesday, Jan. 22, 2025. (AP)

Refugees who had been approved to travel to the United States before a deadline next week suspending America's refugee resettlement program have had their travel plans canceled by the Trump administration.

Thousands of refugees who fled war and persecution and had gone through a sometimes yearslong process to start new lives in America are now stranded at various locations worldwide. That includes more than 1,600 Afghans who assisted America's war effort, as well as relatives of active-duty US military personnel.

President Donald Trump paused the refugee resettlement program this week as part of a series of executive orders cracking down on immigration. His move had left open the possibility that refugees who had been screened to come to the US and had flights booked before the Jan. 27 deadline might be able to get in under the wire.

But in an email dated Tuesday and reviewed by The Associated Press, the US agency overseeing refugee processing and arrivals told staff and stakeholders that "refugee arrivals to the United States have been suspended until further notice."

There are a little more than 10,000 refugees from around the world who had already gone through the lengthy refugee admission process and had travel scheduled over the next few weeks, according to a document obtained by the AP. It was not immediately clear how many of those had been set to arrive by upcoming deadline.

Among those are more than 1,600 Afghans cleared to come to the US as part of the program that the Biden administration set up after the American withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.

Many veterans of America's longest war have tried for years to help Afghans they worked with, in addition to their families, find refuge in the US. Many were prepared for a suspension of the resettlement program but had hoped for special consideration for the Afghans.

"The Trump administration’s early pause of refugee flights is alarming, leaving thousands of Afghan allies in fear and uncertainty," said Shawn VanDiver, a Navy veteran and head of #AfghanEvac, a coalition supporting Afghan resettlement efforts. "We are ready to partner to fix this and urge clear communication with impacted families. Let’s honor our promises and uphold America’s values."

There is a separate path — the special immigrant visa program— specifically for Afghans who worked directly with the US government. VanDiver's group said that program, set up by Congress, did not appear to be affected at this time.

Trump's order signed Monday had given the State Department a week before it began to halt all processing and traveling. It appears the timing was moved up, though it was not immediately clear what prompted the change.

The State Department referred questions to the White House.

Agencies that help refugees settle and adjust to life in America have argued that this is the type of legal immigration that Trump and his supporters say they like and have pointed to the stringent background checks and sometimes yearslong wait that refugees endure before setting foot in America.

"This abrupt halt to refugee admissions is devastating for families who have already endured unimaginable hardship and waited years for the chance to rebuild their lives in safety," Krish O’Mara Vignarajah, head of Global Refuge, one of the 10 US resettlement agencies, said in a statement Wednesday.

"Refugees go through one of the most rigorous vetting processes in the world, and many are now seeing their travel canceled just days, or even hours, before they were set to begin their new lives in the United States," she said. "It’s utterly heartbreaking."

Refugees are distinct from people who come directly to the US-Mexico border with the goal of eventually seeking asylum. Refugees must be living outside of the US to be considered for resettlement and are usually referred to the State Department by the United Nations.

While the resettlement program has historically enjoyed bipartisan support, the first Trump administration also temporarily halted resettlement and then lowered the number of refugees who could enter the country annually.