Oil Edges Down on US Recession Risk

A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
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Oil Edges Down on US Recession Risk

A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo

Oil prices slipped on Thursday as the prospect of a possible recession in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, offset concerns of tight supply.

Brent crude fell 55 cents, or 0.63%, to $86.78 a barrel by 1352 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 46 cents, or 0.55%, to $82.80.

Both Brent and WTI had risen 2% on Wednesday to their highest in more than a month as cooling US inflation spurred hopes that the US Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates.

However, minutes from the Fed's last policy meeting indicated that banking sector stress could tip the economy into recession, which would weaken US oil demand.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) flagged downside risks to summer oil demand in a monthly report on Thursday. But OPEC kept its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023 unchanged.

The market is a keeping a close eye on indicators of economic growth, which Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM described as fragile. "Inflationary pressure could easily become elevated again," Varga said.

The market is still reeling from the shock decision by OPEC and its allies, together known as OPEC+, to cut output further.

The executive director of the International Energy Agency expects the move to tighten supply in the second half of the year and push oil prices higher, Reuters reported.

However, the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday highlighted the risk this poses to global economic expansion.

For every 10% rise in the price of oil, IMF models show a 0.1 percentage point reduction in growth and a 0.3 percentage point increase in inflation, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said.

Markets on Wednesday shrugged off a small build in US crude oil stocks, attributing it in part to a release of oil from the US emergency reserve and lower exports at the start of the month.

The Biden administration plans to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve soon and hopes to do it at lower oil prices, US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said on Wednesday.



Turkish Inflation Rises to 2.58% in October, Driven by Clothing and Food Prices

People shop at Eminonu district in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 4, 2022. (Reuters)
People shop at Eminonu district in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 4, 2022. (Reuters)
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Turkish Inflation Rises to 2.58% in October, Driven by Clothing and Food Prices

People shop at Eminonu district in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 4, 2022. (Reuters)
People shop at Eminonu district in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 4, 2022. (Reuters)

Turkish consumer price inflation climbed to 2.58% month-on-month in October, above expectations and driven by clothing and food price rises, while the annual figure was 29.77%, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed on Tuesday.

Clothing and footwear prices surged 12.58% during the month, while food prices rose 3.5% and transport prices were ‌up 2.02%.

In ‌a Reuters poll, monthly ‌consumer ⁠price inflation was forecast to ⁠be 2.4%, driven by higher energy price pressures as well as seasonally higher clothing and food prices, and the annual rate was seen at 29.56%.

In September, consumer prices rose 1.84% month-on-month and 29.73% year-on-year, ⁠below forecasts.

The lira stood at ‌49.9975 against the ‌dollar after the data, compared with a close ‌of 49.9725 on Monday.

The poll's median ‌estimate sees annual inflation at 29.57% by the end of 2026.

Türkiye's central bank kept its year-end interim inflation target at 24% while raising its ‌year-end inflation forecast to 28% in its third inflation report published ⁠in ⁠August.

Last Friday, the central bank said higher energy and commodity prices driven by geopolitical tensions continued to pose upside risks to inflation, a week after it cut its policy rate by 100 basis points to 36% at its October 22 meeting, its first cut since January.

Tuesday's data also showed the domestic producer price index rose 1.65% month-on-month in October for an annual increase of 27.41%.


German Auto Crisis Deepens as Supplier Announces Job Cuts, Site Closures

05 November 2024, Bavaria, Herzogenaurach: A view of the headquarters of automotive and industrial supplier Schaeffler in Franconia. (dpa)
05 November 2024, Bavaria, Herzogenaurach: A view of the headquarters of automotive and industrial supplier Schaeffler in Franconia. (dpa)
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German Auto Crisis Deepens as Supplier Announces Job Cuts, Site Closures

05 November 2024, Bavaria, Herzogenaurach: A view of the headquarters of automotive and industrial supplier Schaeffler in Franconia. (dpa)
05 November 2024, Bavaria, Herzogenaurach: A view of the headquarters of automotive and industrial supplier Schaeffler in Franconia. (dpa)

German auto parts supplier Schaeffler said Tuesday that it planned to cut almost 3,500 jobs and close five sites in Europe as the crisis gripping the region's car industry deepens.

Like other German carmakers and suppliers, the group has struggled with competition for its key products, which include ball bearings and electric vehicle parts, especially from Chinese manufacturers.

Three-fourths of the 3,460 job cuts and four of the five site closures will be in Germany, the company said in a statement, pointing to "above-average" costs for workers in Europe's top economy.

The cuts, to be completed by 2028, are around three percent of the group's global workforce of almost 110,000. They should result in annual savings of around 300 million euros ($336 million) from 2030, it said.

Schaeffler, in a statement, said it was "responding to the persistently challenging environment in the automotive industry."

There was "an overall downturn in the market and intensifying competition... characterized by weakened demand for internal combustion engine vehicles and a delayed ramp-up of electric mobility," it added.

The cuts would be mainly focused on production and research and development.

Sites would be closed in Berlin, Dortmund, and two other towns in western Germany. A small site in Belgium will also be shuttered.

There will also be job cuts at sites in France and Slovakia.

Schaeffler said some of the job losses would be offset by the creation of positions in "future-oriented fields", such as humanoid robotics and defense.

While not as well-known as the car titans they work with, such as Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes, Germany's suppliers are a crucial part of the auto ecosystem, providing everything from braking systems to in-car electronics.

But as their customers have fallen into crisis, battling Chinese competition, high production costs at home and weakening demand, suppliers have been hit hard.

Volkswagen is planning to cut around 120,000 jobs across its brands by 2030.

German industrial titan Bosch, the world's biggest supplier of car equipment, announced last year 13,000 job cuts, mostly in its auto division.


Oil Rises as Peace Prospects Dim after US Hits Iran's Qeshm Island

Oil rigs operating in the Atyrau region's Irankol field in Kazakhstan (Reuters)
Oil rigs operating in the Atyrau region's Irankol field in Kazakhstan (Reuters)
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Oil Rises as Peace Prospects Dim after US Hits Iran's Qeshm Island

Oil rigs operating in the Atyrau region's Irankol field in Kazakhstan (Reuters)
Oil rigs operating in the Atyrau region's Irankol field in Kazakhstan (Reuters)

Oil prices rose more than $1 on Tuesday, as an Iranian official said a deal to the end the war was far off, while the United States struck Iran's Qeshm Island, fueling concerns over the escalation of hostilities and risks to energy supplies.

US West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.6, or 1.66%, at $98.06 a barrel while Brent crude futures rose $1.84, or 1.76%, to $106.61 a barrel by 0744 GMT.

Both benchmarks had dropped more than 7% on ‌Monday as ‌talks between Iranian and Qatar officials lifted hopes for an ‌end ⁠to the US-Israeli war ⁠with Iran that were soon dashed.

A US official said on Monday the US had struck Iran's Qeshm Island. Some officials described the assaults as defensive and aimed at preventing Iran from attacking commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

On Tuesday, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that both countries were far from reaching a deal to end the war, and Tehran would not accept Washington's "excessive demands".

Iran's ⁠parliament speaker Qalibaf said Tehran had given Washington a "strong and ‌rational response," adding, "The ball is in the US' ‌court," according to state media.

"The report added a degree of risk premium back ‌into the oil price," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM ‌Trade.

"Just when markets were starting to price in a more diplomatic path, this reminder of ongoing military activity has flipped the tone."

The war started in late February has become a leading cause of high gasoline prices weighing on voters, and Trump is under pressure ‌to end the conflict, with mid-term elections set for Tuesday.

"For now, the risk of supply disruptions continues to provide a ⁠floor for prices, ⁠while uncertainty over Washington's next move, political developments and traders' reluctance to carry aggressive positions are capping the upside," said Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insight at Phillip Nova.

Brent ended October at its highest in six months on concerns that the conflict could escalate again after the US midterm elections.

A Ukrainian drone attack damaged an oil refinery in the Russian city of Yaroslavl, governor Mikhail Evrayev said on Tuesday.

Russia launched a massive overnight strike on Ukrainian energy facilities in the Vinnytsia, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions, Interfax news agency said, citing the defense ministry.

Additionally, the US will bring together delegations from Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11 to discuss ending the war, post-war security pacts and de-escalation efforts.