Report: Himalayan Glaciers on Track to Lose Up to 75% of Ice by 2100 

Water forms under Nepal's Khumbu glacier as the ice melts in this undated handout image. (Alex Treadway/ICIMOD/Handout via Reuters)
Water forms under Nepal's Khumbu glacier as the ice melts in this undated handout image. (Alex Treadway/ICIMOD/Handout via Reuters)
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Report: Himalayan Glaciers on Track to Lose Up to 75% of Ice by 2100 

Water forms under Nepal's Khumbu glacier as the ice melts in this undated handout image. (Alex Treadway/ICIMOD/Handout via Reuters)
Water forms under Nepal's Khumbu glacier as the ice melts in this undated handout image. (Alex Treadway/ICIMOD/Handout via Reuters)

Glaciers in Asia’s Hindu Kush Himalaya could lose up to 75% of their volume by century’s end due to global warming, causing both dangerous flooding and water shortages for the 240 million people who live in the mountainous region, according to a new report.

A team of international scientists has found that ice loss in the region, home to the famous peaks of Everest and K2, is speeding up. During the 2010s, the glaciers shed ice as much as 65% faster than they had in the preceding decade, according to the assessment by the Kathmandu-based International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), an intergovernmental scientific authority on the region.

“We’re losing the glaciers, and we’re losing them in 100 years’ time,” said Philippus Wester, an environmental scientist and ICIMOD fellow who was the lead author of the report.

The Hindu Kush Himalaya stretches 3,500 km (2,175 miles) across Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan.

At 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2C of warming above preindustrial temperatures, glaciers across the entire region will lose 30% to 50% of their volume by 2100, the report said.

But where glaciers will melt most depends on location. At 3C of warming — what the world is roughly on track for under current climate policies — glaciers in the Eastern Himalaya, which includes Nepal and Bhutan, will lose up to 75% of their ice. At 4C of warming, that ticks up to 80%.

The full picture

Scientists have struggled to assess how climate change is affecting the Hindu Kush Himalaya. Unlike the European Alps and North America’s Rocky Mountains, the region lacks a long historical record of field measurements that reveal whether glaciers are growing or shrinking.

“There was always some uncertainty in the Himalaya — are they really melting?”, said Wester.

In 2019, the United States declassified spy satellite images of the region’s glaciers dating back to 1970, providing a new scientific baseline.

Further advances in satellite technology in the past five years, alongside bolstered field efforts, have buoyed scientists’ understanding of the changes underway. The report draws on data running through December 2022.

“While the knowledge of the Himalayan glaciers is still not as good as the Alps, it’s now comparable to other regions like the Andes,” said Tobias Bolch, a glaciologist with Graz University of Technology in Austria unaffiliated with the report.

Compared with a 2019 ICIMOD assessment of the region, “there’s a much higher level of confidence now in these findings,” said Wester. “We have a better sense of what the loss will be through to 2100 at different levels of global warming.”

Livelihoods at risk

With this newfound understanding comes grave concern for the people living in the Hindu Kush Himalaya.

The report found water flows in the region’s 12 river basins, including the Ganges, Indus, and Mekong, are likely to peak around mid-century, with consequences for the more than 1.6 billion people who depend on this supply.

"While it may sound like we'll have more water because glaciers are melting at an increased rate ... too frequently it will arise as floods instead of a steady flow," said Wester. Past peak water, supplies will eventually dwindle.

Many high mountain communities use glacial water and snowmelt to irrigate crops. But the timing of when snow falls has become more erratic, and there’s less than there used to be.

“We’ve had ... huge numbers of yak deaths because during summer they go to higher pastures,” said report co-author Amina Maharjan, a senior specialist in livelihoods and migration at ICIMOD. If the snow falls too soon, “the entire area is covered in snow and they don’t have grass to graze”.

People are now moving away from mountain communities to earn income elsewhere, she said.

Melting glaciers also pose a danger to downstream communities. Runoff pools in shallow lakes, held back by rocks and debris. The risk comes when a lake overfills, bursting through its natural barrier and sending a torrent of water rushing down mountain valleys.

Governments are trying to prepare for these changes. China is working to shore up the country’s water supplies. And Pakistan is installing early warning systems for glacial lake outburst floods.



Japan Sees Bright Future for Ultra-Thin, Flexible Solar Panels

Japan is hoping ultra-thin, flexible solar panels made from perovskite will help it meet renewable energy goals. (AFP)
Japan is hoping ultra-thin, flexible solar panels made from perovskite will help it meet renewable energy goals. (AFP)
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Japan Sees Bright Future for Ultra-Thin, Flexible Solar Panels

Japan is hoping ultra-thin, flexible solar panels made from perovskite will help it meet renewable energy goals. (AFP)
Japan is hoping ultra-thin, flexible solar panels made from perovskite will help it meet renewable energy goals. (AFP)

Japan is heavily investing in a new kind of ultra-thin, flexible solar panel that it hopes will help it meet renewable energy goals while challenging China's dominance of the sector.

Pliable perovskite panels are perfect for mountainous Japan, with its shortage of flat plots for traditional solar farms. And a key component of the panels is iodine, something Japan produces more of than any country but Chile, reported AFP.

The push faces some obstacles: perovskite panels contain toxic lead, and, for now, produce less power and have shorter lifespans than their silicon counterparts.

Still, with a goal of net-zero by 2050 and a desire to break China's solar supremacy, perovskite cells are "our best card to achieve both decarbonization and industrial competitiveness," minister of industry Yoji Muto said in November.

The government is offering generous incentives to get industry on board, including a 157-billion-yen ($1 billion) subsidy to plastic maker Sekisui Chemical for a factory to produce enough perovskite solar panels to generate 100 megawatts by 2027, enough to power 30,000 households.

By 2040, Japan wants to install enough perovskite panels to generate 20 gigawatts of electricity, equivalent to adding about 20 nuclear reactors.

That should help Japan's target to have renewable energy cover up to 50 percent of electricity demand by 2040.

- Breaking the silicon ceiling -

The nation is looking to solar power, including perovskite and silicon-based solar cells, to cover up to 29 percent of all electricity demand by that time, a sharp rise from 9.8 percent in 2023.

"To increase the amount of renewable energy and achieve carbon neutrality, I think we will have to mobilize all the technologies available," said Hiroshi Segawa, a specialist in next-generation solar technology at the University of Tokyo.

"Perovskite solar panels can be built domestically, from the raw materials to production to installation. In that sense, they could significantly contribute to things like energy security and economic security," he told AFP.

Tokyo wants to avoid a repeat of the past boom and bust of the Japanese solar business.

In the early 2000s, Japanese-made silicon solar panels accounted for almost half the global market.

Now, China controls more than 80 percent of the global solar supply chain, from the production of key raw material to assembling modules.

Silicon solar panels are made of thin wafers that are processed into cells that generate electricity.

They must be protected by reinforced glass sheets and metal frames, making the final products heavy and cumbersome.

Perovskite solar cells, however, are created by printing or painting ingredients such as iodine and lead onto surfaces like film or sheet glass.

The final product can be just a millimeter thick and a tenth the weight of a conventional silicon solar cell.

Perovskite panels' malleability means they can be installed on uneven and curved surfaces, a key feature in Japan, where 70 percent of the country is mountainous.

- Generating where power is used -

The panels are already being incorporated into several projects, including a 46-storey Tokyo building to be completed by 2028.

The southwestern city of Fukuoka has also said it wants to cover a domed baseball stadium with perovskite panels.

And major electronics brand Panasonic is working on integrating perovskite into windowpanes.

"What if all of these windows had solar cells integrated in them?" said Yukihiro Kaneko, general manager of Panasonic's perovskite PV development department, gesturing to the glass-covered high-rise buildings surrounding the firm's Tokyo office.

That would allow power to be generated where it is used, and reduce the burden on the national grid, Kaneko added.

For all the enthusiasm, perovskite panels remain far from mass production.

They are less efficient than their silicon counterparts, and have a lifespan of just a decade, compared to 30 years for conventional units.

The toxic lead they contain also means they need careful disposal after use.

However, the technology is advancing fast. Some prototypes can perform nearly as powerfully as silicon panels and their durability is expected to reach 20 years soon.

University professor Segawa believes Japan could have a capacity of 40 gigawatts from perovskite by 2040, while the technology could also speed up renewable uptake elsewhere.

"We should not think of it as either silicon or perovskite. We should look at how we can maximize our ability to utilize renewable energy," Segawa said.

"If Japan could show a good model, I think it can be brought overseas."