Ukraine Has an Array of New Western Weapons. What Advantages Could They Offer in a Counteroffensive?

A Ukrainian serviceman of 28th brigade shoots a Maxim gun towards Russian positions at the frontline in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, June 21, 2023. (AP)
A Ukrainian serviceman of 28th brigade shoots a Maxim gun towards Russian positions at the frontline in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, June 21, 2023. (AP)
TT

Ukraine Has an Array of New Western Weapons. What Advantages Could They Offer in a Counteroffensive?

A Ukrainian serviceman of 28th brigade shoots a Maxim gun towards Russian positions at the frontline in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, June 21, 2023. (AP)
A Ukrainian serviceman of 28th brigade shoots a Maxim gun towards Russian positions at the frontline in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, June 21, 2023. (AP)

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine’s military was largely reliant on Soviet-era weaponry, from tanks to artillery to fighter jets.

While that arsenal helped Ukraine fend off an assault on the capital of Kyiv and prevent a total rout in the early weeks of the war, billions of dollars in military assistance has since poured into the country, including more modern Western-made weapons.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive, now in its early stages, could offer a glimpse of whether and to what extent the newer weapons systems have strengthened Kyiv’s ability to stand up to Russia.

Analysts are cautiously optimistic.

"Ukraine is in a much better position to be able to conduct a combined arms warfare than where they were in the beginning of Russia’s full-scale reinvasion of Ukraine," George Barros, a Russia analyst for the Center for Strategic International Studies said.

Here’s a look at some of the Western weapons sent to Ukraine and what advantages they might offer.

Striking targets

One sophisticated US-made rocket launcher sent to Ukraine has received a lot of attention — and for good reason: High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems gave Kyiv's forces the ability to hit targets farther away and with much greater accuracy than Soviet-designed ones.

In the fall counteroffensive, the HIMARS — which currently give troops the capability to strike a target up to 80 kilometers (50 miles) away and then quickly move on — were used to destroy bridges near the southern city of Kherson, cutting Russian troops off from one another and their supply routes.

Ukraine has since clamored for longer-range missiles that can also be launched by the HIMARS and could reach up to 300 kilometers (190 miles) away. But the U.S. and its allies have been reluctant to provide them.

However, Washington agreed in February to send Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs, which have a range of 150 kilometers (90 miles) when fired by HIMARS, and the UK announced the delivery of Storm Shadow cruise missiles — with a range of 550 kilometers (340 miles).

Both weapons already have been spotted in combat, extending Ukraine’s reach.

Air defense

Throughout the war, Russia has rained missiles down on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure almost daily.

To defend against those barrages, the West has sent Ukraine the Patriot and the Avenger air defense systems.

At $4 million per round, Patriot missiles are meant to shield against larger ballistic missile attacks, leaving simpler weapons to deal with the cheap, slow-flying Iranian exploding drones often used by the Russians.

Even with these new air defense systems, Ukraine has struggled to protect its territory against daily Russian attacks.

Russia has relied on long-range ballistic and cruise missiles to strike targets deep in Ukraine, avoiding a risk to its warplanes after losing many of them in the initial stages of the invasion. Moscow’s failure to win control of Ukrainian airspace was one of the biggest surprises of the war.

Ukraine also has kept its much smaller air force made of Soviet-made Sukhoi and Mig-29 jets away from the front line and used them to launch missiles from large distances to minimize losses.

Ukraine long has pushed for Western jets, but their delivery isn’t expected any time soon.

"Ukraine would be a lot in a better position for a more decisive victory and success on a shorter timeline if we took these decisions a lot faster," Barros said.

Artillery

Long known as the "King of Battle," artillery systems are key in any war — but especially the one in Ukraine. Russian troops have dug themselves in throughout the south and east of the country. Driving them out will require significant artillery.

Artillery can take out buildings and enemy weapons from reasonable distances and cause such chaos that opposing troops are forced to withdraw. Ukrainian forces are making heavy use of artillery in the battles around Zaporizhzhia, where the beginnings of the counteroffensive are unfolding.

Ukraine had plenty of artillery to begin with — but now it has American M777s and German Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers, both of which are more accurate and powerful than what it started the war with.

Tanks and armored vehicles

Ukraine needs the "punching force" of tanks and other fighting vehicles if it's going to break through Russian lines, Barros said.

Tanks delivered thus far — which include multiple models of German Leopards and the British Challengers — are more sophisticated than the Soviet-designed T-64 and T-72 tanks Ukraine relied on at the start of the invasion.

They also have far better armor and can strike more accurately than Russia's tanks, according to Craig Cartier, a retired Soviet Union analyst for the US with more than three decades of experience.

The US, meanwhile, has sent Bradley fighting vehicles, which offer better protection for troops they carry and have better firepower compared to Soviet-era armored vehicles that Ukraine has used.

All of these vehicles can inflict high casualties and destroy other weapons systems, making them invaluable for a counteroffensive.

Training

Perhaps most crucial to Ukraine’s success, however, has been the Ukrainians themselves. Both Barros and Cartier said the experience and training of Ukrainian troops, not just the weapons provided by the West, has made them a lethal force.

The Ukrainians "have demonstrated the ability to not only master the equipment and tactics, but to be able to do things nobody else has been able to do, as demonstrated by their (air defense) wizardry," Cartier said.

In the UK and Germany, in addition to other neighboring countries, Ukrainian forces have been trained on infantry tactics and on certain specialized equipment, such as the Challenger-2 tanks.

It's impossible to know how the counteroffensive will unfold, Barros said.

"What I will say is every single time that the Ukrainians have had an opportunity to demonstrate their fortitude and resolve on the battlefield, they’ve always outperformed expectations," he said.



Long Silenced by Fear, Syrians Now Speak about Rampant Torture under Assad

People walk through a corridor of Syria's infamous Saydnaya military prison, just north of Damascus, Syria, on Dec. 9, 2024. (AP)
People walk through a corridor of Syria's infamous Saydnaya military prison, just north of Damascus, Syria, on Dec. 9, 2024. (AP)
TT

Long Silenced by Fear, Syrians Now Speak about Rampant Torture under Assad

People walk through a corridor of Syria's infamous Saydnaya military prison, just north of Damascus, Syria, on Dec. 9, 2024. (AP)
People walk through a corridor of Syria's infamous Saydnaya military prison, just north of Damascus, Syria, on Dec. 9, 2024. (AP)

Handcuffed and squatting on the floor, Abdullah Zahra saw smoke rising from his cellmate’s flesh as his torturers gave him electric shocks.

Then it was Zahra’s turn. They hanged the 20-year-old university student from his wrists and electrocuted and beat him for two hours. They made his father watch and taunted him about his son’s torment.

That was 2012, and the entire security apparatus of Syria’s then-President Bashar Assad was deployed to crush the protests against his rule.

With Assad’s fall a month ago, the machinery of death that he ran is starting to come out into the open.

It was systematic and well-organized, growing to more than 100 detention facilities into which tens of thousands disappeared over more than a decade. Torture, sexual violence and mass executions were rampant, according to rights groups and former prisoners.

A blanket of fear kept Syrians silent about their experiences or lost loved ones. But now, everyone is talking. After the insurgents who swept Assad out of power on Dec. 8 opened prisons and detention facilities, crowds swarmed in, searching for answers, bodies of loved ones, and ways to heal.

The Associated Press visited seven of these facilities in Damascus and spoke to nine former detainees. Some details of the accounts by those who spoke to the AP could not be independently confirmed, but they matched past reports by former detainees to human rights groups.

Days after Assad’s fall, Zahra — now 33 — came to visit Branch 215, a detention facility run by military intelligence in Damascus where he was held for two months.

There, he said, he was kept in a windowless underground cell, 4-by-4-meters (yards) and crammed with 100 other inmates. When ventilators were cut off -- either intentionally or because of a power failure -- some suffocated. Men went mad; torture wounds festered. When a cellmate died, they stowed his body next to the cell’s toilet until jailers collected corpses, Zahra said.

“Death was the least bad thing,” he said. “We reached a place where death was easier than staying here for one minute.”

A member of the security forces for the new interim Syrian government stands next to prison cells at the Palestine Branch, a detention facility operated by the General Intelligence Agency during Bashar al-Assad's regime, in Damascus, Syria, on Dec. 14, 2024. (AP)

Assad’s system of repression grew as civil war raged

After he and his father were released, Zahra fled to opposition-held areas. Within a few months, security agents returned and dragged off 13 of his male relatives, including a younger brother and, again, his father.

All were killed. Zahra later recognized their bodies among photos leaked by a defector showing thousands killed in detention. Their bodies were never recovered.

Rights groups estimate at least 150,000 people went missing since anti-government protests began in 2011, most vanishing into detention facilities. Many were killed, either in mass executions or from torture and prison conditions. The exact number remains unknown.

Even before the uprising, Assad had ruled with an iron fist. But as protests turned into a civil war that would last 14 years, Assad expanded his system of repression. New detention facilities run by military, security and intelligence agencies sprung up in security compounds, military airports and under buildings.

At Branch 215, Zahra hoped to find some sign of his lost relatives. But there was nothing. At home, his aunt, Rajaa Zahra, looked at the leaked pictures of her killed children for the first time – something she had long refused to do. She lost four of her six sons in Assad’s crackdowns. Her brother, she said, lost two of his three sons.

“They were hoping to finish off all the young men of the country.”

A site believed to be a mass grave for detainees killed under Bashar al-Assad's rule is visible in Najha, south of Damascus, Syria, on Dec. 17, 2024. (AP)

Syrians were tortured with ‘the tire’ and ‘magic carpet’

The tortures had names. One was called the “magic carpet,” where a detainee was strapped to a hinged wooden plank that bends in half, folding his head to his feet, which were then beaten.

Abdul-Karim Hajeko said he endured this five times. His torturers stomped on his back during interrogations at the Criminal Security branch, and his vertebrae are still broken.

“My screams would go to heaven. Once a doctor came down from the fourth floor (to the ground floor) because of my screams,” he said.

He was also put in “the tire.” His legs were bent inside a car tire as interrogators beat his back and feet. Afterward, they ordered him to kiss the tire and thank it for teaching him “how to behave.”

Many prisoners said the tire was inflicted for rule violations -- like making noise, raising one’s head in front of guards, or praying – or for no reason at all.

Saleh Turki Yahia said a cellmate died nearly every day during the seven months in 2012 he was held at the Palestine Branch, a detention facility run by the General Intelligence Agency. He said he was given electric shocks, hanged from his wrists, beaten on his feet. He lost half his body weight and nearly tore his own skin scratching from scabies.

“They broke us,” he said, breaking into tears as he visited the Palestine Branch. “A whole generation is destroyed.”

Documents are scattered around Branch 215, a detention facility run by Bashar al-Assad's regime, in Damascus, Syria, on Dec. 17, 2024. (AP)

The mounting evidence will be used in trials

Now comes the monumental task of accounting for the missing and compiling evidence that could one day be used to prosecute Assad’s officials, whether by Syrian or international courts.

Hundreds of thousands of documents remain scattered throughout detention facilities. Some seen by the AP included transcripts of phone conversations; intelligence files on activists; and a list of hundreds of prisoners killed in detention. At least 15 mass graves have been identified around Damascus and elsewhere around the country.

A UN body known as the International Impartial and Independent Mechanism has offered to help the new interim administration in collecting, organizing and analyzing all the material. Since 2011, it has been compiling evidence and supporting investigations in over 200 criminal cases against figures in Assad’s government.

Many want answers now.

Officials cannot just declare that the missing are presumed dead, said Wafaa Mustafa, a Syrian journalist, whose father was detained and killed 12 years ago.

“No one gets to tell the families what happened without evidence, without search, without work.”