Iranian-US Prisoner Swap Deal Awaits Transfer of Funds

 The amphibious assault ship USS Bataan sailed in the Red Sea last Tuesday (AP)
The amphibious assault ship USS Bataan sailed in the Red Sea last Tuesday (AP)
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Iranian-US Prisoner Swap Deal Awaits Transfer of Funds

 The amphibious assault ship USS Bataan sailed in the Red Sea last Tuesday (AP)
The amphibious assault ship USS Bataan sailed in the Red Sea last Tuesday (AP)

US and Iranian delegations gathered in separate hotels in Doha – “within sight of each other, but not within earshot”, to reach an agreement on a deal to release five Americans detained in Iran, CNN quoted a US official as saying.

However, the official, who is familiar with the negotiations, stressed that the on-and-off hotel meetings in the Qatari capital, which were being held for over more than a year, saw no face-to-face meetings between the US and Iranian delegations.

Qatari officials conveyed messages back and forth, CNN reported, with some of the logistical work happening in the most discreet way possible, via text thread between the Qataris and the US diplomats.

The indirect talks were part of a two-year process that led to the agreement announced this week, a potential diplomatic breakthrough between the two arch-rivals who do not directly speak to each other.

On Thursday, those intense efforts yielded the first signs of a deal, when Iran released four Americans held in the notorious Evin prison and transferred them to house arrest, with a fifth American prisoner also under home confinement.

CNN quoted well-informed sources as saying that Washington rejected overt initiatives to deal directly with Tehran on this issue.

American officials approached the negotiations on the basis that there were “no guarantees” with the Iranians. But just when things seemed to be going well, the US government began reaching out to Congress and the families of the US detainees.

On Thursday, the US source said that American officials were in direct contact with the Swiss ambassador to Iran to get an update on progress on the ground. Switzerland has been sponsoring US interests in Iran for four decades.

The path was described as a step-by-step process, and American officials stressed that the indirect negotiations were ongoing and sensitive.

One component of the deal is an expected prisoner exchange between the United States and Iran, and the other includes allowing $6 billion in Iranian funds frozen in a restricted account in South Korea to be transferred more easily for “unsanctioned trade” in goods, such as food and medicine, by moving them to restricted accounts in Qatar.

According to CNN, the sources said that the money came from oil sales that were authorized and placed in accounts set up under the Trump administration.

Sources familiar with the deal said the process of transferring the money to Qatar was likely to take between 30 and 45 days, and that the money would be moved through Switzerland before arriving in Qatar.

According to the Associated Press, the transfer process would take so long because Iran did not want to freeze assets in South Korean won, which are less convertible than euros or dollars.

US officials say that while South Korea approves of the conversion, it is worried that converting this big amount into other currencies at once would negatively affect its exchange rate and the economy.

Thus, the country is proceeding slowly, sending smaller amounts of frozen assets for eventual transfer to the central bank in Qatar.

While the Biden administration describes the process - with the ultimate goal of securing the release of Americans - as a long road, CNN quoted those sources as saying that bringing Americans home has been a priority since the beginning of Biden’s term.

However, experts in Iranian affairs criticized these allegations, accusing the Biden administration of providing billions of dollars to support Iran’s activities.

Richard Goldberg, vice president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies said on X (formerly Twitter) that the billions of dollars were in support of a wide range of illegal activities, the completion of construction of a new, hardened underground facility, and establishment of nuclear threshold status.

For his part, Henry Rome, a researcher in Iranian affairs at The Washington Institute, said on the X platform that the deal for Iran to reduce its uranium stocks by 60 percent was a constructive step in implementing the American-Iranian understandings that were reached in Oman.

Rome expected Tehran to use the diplomatic progress to try to divert social pressure ahead of the anniversary of the outbreak of popular protests after the death of Mahsa Amini.

However, some observers believe that two main reasons could be behind this agreement. First, Iran’s attempt to avoid sanctions that could be imposed during the next meeting of the IAEA’s Board of Experts, through its “voluntary” reduction of its stockpile of enriched uranium, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Second, the unprecedented US military build-up in the Gulf waters, which was considered a “firm” message to Tehran.

On Saturday, US forces and their Western allies issued a new warning to cargo ships transiting the strategic Strait of Hormuz to stay as far as possible from Iranian territorial waters to avoid being captured. This was considered a stark notice, amid tensions between Iran and the United States, despite the ongoing negotiations, according to the Associated Press.



The Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Truce is Holding so Far, Despite Violations

Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
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The Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Truce is Holding so Far, Despite Violations

Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)

A fragile ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanon's Hezbollah has held up for over a month, even as its terms seem unlikely to be met by the agreed-upon deadline.

The deal struck on Nov. 27 to halt the war required Hezbollah to immediately lay down its arms in southern Lebanon and gave Israel 60 days to withdraw its forces there and hand over control to the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers.

So far, Israel has withdrawn from just two of the dozens of towns it holds in southern Lebanon. And it has continued striking what it says are bases belonging to Hezbollah, which it accuses of attempting to launch rockets and move weapons before they can be confiscated and destroyed, The AP reported.

Hezbollah, which was severely diminished during nearly 14 months of war, has threatened to resume fighting if Israel does not fully withdraw its forces by the 60-day deadline.

Yet despite accusations from both sides about hundreds of ceasefire violations, the truce is likely to hold, analysts say. That is good news for thousands of Israeli and Lebanese families displaced by the war still waiting to return home.

“The ceasefire agreement is rather opaque and open to interpretation,” said Firas Maksad, a senior fellow with the Middle East Institute in Washington. That flexibility, he said, may give it a better chance of holding in the face of changing circumstances, including the ouster of Syria's longtime leader, Bashar Assad, just days after the ceasefire took effect.

With Assad gone, Hezbollah lost a vital route for smuggling weapons from Iran. While that further weakened Hezbollah’s hand, Israel had already agreed to the US-brokered ceasefire.

Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel on Oct. 8, 2023 — the day after Hamas launched a deadly attack into Israel that ignited the ongoing war in Gaza. Since then, Israeli air and ground assaults have killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon, including hundreds of civilians. At the height of the war, more than 1 million Lebanese people were displaced.

Hezbollah rockets forced some 60,000 from their homes in northern Israel, and killed 76 people in Israel, including 31 soldiers. Almost 50 Israeli soldiers were killed during operations inside Lebanon.

Here’s a look at the terms of the ceasefire and its prospects for ending hostilities over the long-term.

What does the ceasefire agreement say? The agreement says that both Hezbollah and Israel will halt “offensive” military actions, but that they can act in self-defense, although it is not entirely clear how that term may be interpreted.

The Lebanese army is tasked with preventing Hezbollah and other militant groups from launching attacks into Israel. It is also required to dismantle Hezbollah facilities and weapons in southern Lebanon — activities that might eventually be expanded to the rest of Lebanon, although it is not explicit in the ceasefire agreement.

The United States, France, Israel, Lebanon and the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, are responsible for overseeing implementation of the agreement.

“The key question is not whether the deal will hold, but what version of it will be implemented,” Maksad, the analyst, said.

Is the ceasefire being implemented? Hezbollah has for the most part halted its rocket and drone fire into Israel, and Israel has stopped attacking Hezbollah in most areas of Lebanon. But Israel has launched regular airstrikes on what it says are militant sites in southern Lebanon and in the Bekaa Valley.

Israeli forces have so far withdrawn from two towns in southern Lebanon - Khiam and Shamaa. They remain in some 60 others, according to the International Organization for Migration, and around 160,000 Lebanese remain displaced.

Lebanon has accused Israel of repeatedly violating the ceasefire agreement and last week submitted a complaint to the UN Security Council that says Israel launched some 816 “ground and air attacks” between the start of the ceasefire and Dec. 22, 2024.

The complaint said the attacks have hindered the Lebanese army's efforts to deploy in the south and uphold its end of the ceasefire agreement.

Until Israel hands over control of more towns to the Lebanese army, Israeli troops have been destroying Hezbollah infrastructure, including weapons warehouses and underground tunnels. Lebanese authorities say Israel has also destroyed civilian houses and infrastructure.

What happens after the ceasefire has been in place for 60 days? Israel's withdrawal from Lebanese towns has been slower than anticipated because of a lack of Lebanese army troops ready to take over, according to Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, a military spokesman. Lebanon disputes this, and says it is waiting for Israel to withdraw before entering the towns.

Shoshani said Israel is satisfied with the Lebanese army's control of the areas it has already withdrawn from, and that while it would prefer a faster transfer of power, security is its most important objective.

Israel does not consider the 60-day timetable for withdrawal to be “sacred,” said Harel Chorev, an expert on Israel-Lebanon relations at Tel Aviv University who estimates that Lebanon will need to recruit and deploy thousands more troops before Israel will be ready to hand over control.

Hezbollah officials have said that if Israeli forces remain in Lebanon 60 days past the start of the ceasefire, the militant group might return to attacking them. But Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Kassem said Wednesday that, for now, the group is holding off to give the Lebanese state a chance to "take responsibility” for enforcing the agreement.

Over the final two months of the war, Hezbollah suffered major blows to its leadership, weapons and forces from a barrage of Israeli airstrikes, and a ground invasion that led to fierce battles in southern Lebanon. The fall of Assad was another big setback.

“The power imbalance suggests Israel may want to ensure greater freedom of action after the 60-day period,” Maksad, the analyst, said. And Hezbollah, in its weakened position, now has a “strong interest” in making sure the deal doesn't fall apart altogether “despite Israeli violations,” he said.

While Hezbollah may not be in a position to return to open war with Israel, it or other groups could mount guerilla attacks using light weaponry if Israeli troops remain in southern Lebanon, said former Lebanese army Gen. Hassan Jouni. And even if Israel does withdraw all of its ground forces, Jouni said, the Israeli military could could continue to carry out sporadic airstrikes in Lebanon, much as it has done in Syria for years.