While many were waiting to learn who would become the new head of Hamas’s political bureau, the movement issued a rare and surprising statement last Saturday saying the result could not be decided in the first round and that a second would be held.
Asharq Al-Awsat asked Hamas sources inside and outside Gaza why the process of electing a new leader had stalled.
Speaking separately, they cited several factors, including “blank ballots” cast by some voters to show they were not backing either of the two contenders, Khalil al-Hayya, head of Hamas’s office in Gaza, and Khaled Meshaal, his counterpart abroad.
Hamas is facing its worst crisis since it was founded in 1987. Israeli strikes that began after the October 7, 2023, attack have hit its various wings and leaderships.
Israel assassinated its political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July 2024. He was succeeded by Yahya al-Sinwar in Gaza in October of the same year.
For about a year and a half, a “leadership council” has been running Hamas’s affairs. At the start of this year, a new push began to elect a chief to lead the movement for the remaining period of the current political bureau’s term. The term had been due to end in 2025 but was extended by one year, pending general elections at the end of this year or the beginning of next year.
Two options
Three Hamas sources, including two outside Gaza, told Asharq Al-Awsat that since the result was not decided in favor of either al-Hayya or Meshaal, the movement’s internal regulations offer “two options: either the candidate with fewer votes withdraws in favor of the one with more, or a second round is held within 20 days of the first.”
The vote to elect the head of the political bureau is conducted through the 71-member Shura Council.
The two sources outside Gaza said many voters submitted blank votes, meaning they did not name any candidate. This prevented either contender from winning the first round.
Both sources, who are senior leaders in the movement, said this was “the first time” they had seen such a situation in a vote for the head of the bureau.
One source said the situation suggested “dissatisfaction with the two competing figures, and perhaps a protest against the movement’s policies and an attempt to push toward a younger leadership.”
The other source said: “This is not necessarily a protest against the contenders, as much as it indicates that there is real rejection of some policies on several files, or a desire to postpone the idea of electing an interim chief, wait until comprehensive elections are held, and keep the current leadership council in place.”
Hard-fought contest
Assessments inside and outside Hamas suggest that the competition between al-Hayya and Meshaal reflects diverging trends between two camps within the movement.
Al-Hayya is believed to be closer to support from the Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s military wing, and to advocates of closer ties with Iran.
Meshaal is seen as representing a current that is more independent from tying the movement’s path to Tehran, as reflected in his dispute over the events of the Syrian revolution and in distancing the movement from involvement in it.
One source outside Gaza described the election as a very tight contest between Meshaal and al-Hayya, saying Hamas’s leadership in Gaza had controlled the movement’s most important files over the past two election cycles.
The source inside Gaza said only that “decisions within the movement are made by consensus, regardless of the standing or historical role of whoever leads Hamas.”
Previous elections
In previous years, elections for the head of Hamas’s political bureau were held as part of broader elections for the entire bureau and its various bodies.
In the last comprehensive elections, held in 2021, Haniyeh secured the leadership of the political bureau for a second term. His closest rivals were Saleh al-Arouri and Mohammed Nazzal, respectively.
In his first term as head of the movement in 2017, Haniyeh ran for the leadership with relative ease after Meshaal, who led Hamas’s political bureau between 2013 and 2017, was unable to run.
In the last election, held in Gaza, there was a fierce contest between Sinwar and Nizar Awadallah. It was heading for a second round before Awadallah withdrew in favor of Sinwar.
