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China’s Deflation Pressures Ease, More Steps Expected to Spur Demand

A woman shops at a shoes shop in Beijing, China, 07 September 2023. (EPA)
A woman shops at a shoes shop in Beijing, China, 07 September 2023. (EPA)
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China’s Deflation Pressures Ease, More Steps Expected to Spur Demand

A woman shops at a shoes shop in Beijing, China, 07 September 2023. (EPA)
A woman shops at a shoes shop in Beijing, China, 07 September 2023. (EPA)

China's consumer prices returned to positive territory in August while factory-gate price declines slowed, data showed on Saturday, as deflation pressures ease amid signs of stabilization in the economy.

But analysts say more policy support is needed to shore up consumer demand in the world's second-biggest economy, with a labor market recovery slowing and household income expectations uncertain.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% in August from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said, slower than the median estimate for a 0.2% increase in a Reuters poll. CPI fell 0.3% in July.

Core inflation, which excludes food and fuel prices, was unchanged at 0.8% in August.

The producer price index (PPI) fell 3.0% from a year earlier, in line with expectations, after a drop of 4.4% in July. The drop in factory prices was the smallest in five months.

"There is a bit of improvement in the inflation profile. In the meantime, the PPI deflation appears to be narrowing, pointing to a slow and moderate restoring process," said Zhou Hao, chief economist at Guotai Junan International.

"In general, the inflation (rate) still points to weak demand and requires more policy support for the foreseeable future."

Food prices fell 1.7% on year while non-food costs rose 0.5% - led by rising costs linked to tourism, the bureau said.

Recent floods have damaged corn and rice crops in China's key northern grain-producing belt, sparking domestic food inflation fears as consumers worldwide face tightening food supplies caused by the war in Ukraine.

"Both CPI and PPI are likely to show modest improvements in the fourth quarter," said Luo Yunfeng, an economist at Huajin Securities.

Deflation pressures

Compared with the previous month, CPI rose 0.3%, picking up from 0.2% in July, the statistics bureau said.

Factory-gate deflation moderated in August due to improving demand for some industrial products and rising international crude oil prices, the statistics bureau said.

China's anemic price changes contrast sharply with the surging inflation most other major economies have seen since the COVID-19 pandemic waned, forcing their central banks to rapidly raise interest rates.

China in July became the first of the Group of 20 wealthy nations to report a year-on-year decline in consumer prices since Japan's last negative headline CPI reading in August 2021.

August trade data showed China's exports and imports both narrowing their declines, joining a run of other indicators showing a possible stabilization in the economic downturn, as policymakers seek to spur demand and fend off deflation.

"With early signs of growth stabilization, we see deflationary pressures easing, a trend reflected in higher commodity prices in August," ANZ analysts said in a note.

Beijing has announced a series of measures in recent months to shore up growth, including mortgage rate cuts and the easing of borrowing rules last week by the authorities to aid home-buyers.

China's central bank could continue to cut interest rates and bank reserve requirement ratios, said Bruce Pang, chief economist at Jones Lang Lasalle.

Premier Li Qiang said this week that China is expected to achieve its 2023 growth target of around 5%, but some analysts believe the target could be missed due to a worsening property slump, weak consumer spending and tumbling credit growth.

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Business

Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies(Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies(Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies(Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies(Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.

Business

Aljadaan: Emerging Markets Account for 70% of Global Growth

Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat
Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat
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Aljadaan: Emerging Markets Account for 70% of Global Growth

Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat
Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat

Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed Aljadaan stressed Sunday that the world economy is going through a “profound transition,” saying emerging markets and developing economies now account for nearly 60 percent of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in purchasing power terms and over 70 percent of global growth.

In his opening remarks at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, organized by the Saudi Ministry of Finance and the IMF in AlUla, the minister said these economies have become an increasingly important driver of global growth with their share of global economy more than doubling since 2010.

“Today, the 10 emerging economies in the G20 alone account for more than half of the world growth. Yet, they face a more complex and fragmented environment, elevated debt levels, slower trade growth and increasing exposure to geopolitical shocks.”

“Unfortunately, more than half of low income countries are either in or at the risk of debt distress. At the same time global trade growth has slowed at around half of what it was pre the pandemic,” Aljadaan added.

The Finance Minister stressed that the Saudi experience over the past decade has reinforced three lessons that may be relevant to the discussions at the two-day conference, which brings together a select group of ministers and central bank governors, leaders of international organizations, leading investors and academics.

“First, macroeconomic stability is not the enemy of growth. It is actually the foundation,” he said.

“Structural reforms deliver results only when institutions deliver. So there is no point of reforming ... if the institutions are unable to deliver,” he stated.

Finally, he said that “international cooperation matters more, not less, in a fragmented world.”

Business

Georgieva from AlUla: Growth Still Lacks Pre-pandemic Levels

Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Georgieva from AlUla: Growth Still Lacks Pre-pandemic Levels

Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Sunday that world growth still lacks pre-pandemic levels, expressing concern as she expected more shocks amid high spending and rising debt levels in many countries.

Georgieva spoke at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, organized by the Saudi Ministry of Finance and the IMF in AlUla.

The two-day conference brings together a select group of ministers and central bank governors, leaders of international organizations, leading investors and academics to deliberate on policies to global stability, prosperity, and multilateral collaboration.

Georgieva said that the conference was launched last year in recognition of the growing role of emerging market economies in a world of sweeping transformations.

“I came out of this gathering .... With a sense of hope for the pragmatic attitude and determination to pursue good policies and build strong institutions,” she said.

Georgieva stressed that “good policies pay off,” and said that growth rates across emerging economies reached four percent this year, exceeding by a large margin those of advanced economies that are around 1.5 percent.