Türkiye’s Central Bank Hikes Interest Rates Again

FILE - A seller attends a client in a street market at Eminonu commercial area in Istanbul, Turkey, on, June 7, 2023. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco, File)
FILE - A seller attends a client in a street market at Eminonu commercial area in Istanbul, Turkey, on, June 7, 2023. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco, File)
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Türkiye’s Central Bank Hikes Interest Rates Again

FILE - A seller attends a client in a street market at Eminonu commercial area in Istanbul, Turkey, on, June 7, 2023. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco, File)
FILE - A seller attends a client in a street market at Eminonu commercial area in Istanbul, Turkey, on, June 7, 2023. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco, File)

Türkiye’s central bank raised its key interest rate by 5 percentage points Thursday, another large but expected hike that signals a continued push toward more traditional economic policies under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The bank hiked its policy rate to 30%, saying it has kept up the “monetary tightening process” to combat rampant inflation and control price instability. Its statement said inflation in July and August was “above expectations," hitting 58.94% last month.

It takes Türkiye into a more typical economic approach after critics blamed a series of rate cuts set by Erdogan for making a cost-of-living crisis worse. Turkish households were left struggling to afford rent and basic goods as inflation surged.

Erdogan has long argued that lowering interest rates helps fight inflation, a theory that runs contrary to traditional economic thinking. The Turkish central bank started cutting rates in late 2021 under pressure from Erdogan.

Central banks around the world, meanwhile, have been hiking rates to bring consumer price rises under control following the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine. Now, banks from the US Federal Reserve to Bank of England are hitting pause as they near the end of their aggressive increases.
Türkiye has work to do to catch up in its fight against inflation, The Associated Press reported.

After winning reelection in May, Erdogan appointed a new economic team, signaling a return to more conventional policies.

The team includes former Merrill Lynch banker Mehmet Simsek, who returned as finance minister, a post he held until 2018, and Hafize Gaye Erkan who took over as central bank governor.

Before their appointments, the central bank had cut its key interest rate from around 19% in 2021 to 8.5% earlier this year. Erdogan has fired three central bank governors who resisted pressure to cut rates before appointing Erkan’s predecessor in 2021.

Economists say Erdogan’s unorthodox policies exacerbated economic turmoil, leading to currency and cost-of-living crises that have brought hardship to households. Erdogan insists his economic model stimulates growth, exports and employment.

Following Erkan’s appointment, the bank has raised its key rate a series of time: by an aggressive 7.5 percentage points in August, 2.5 percentage points in July and 6.5 percentage points in June.



OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters
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OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters

OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth this year and next on Tuesday, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions, marking the producer group's fourth consecutive downward revision in the 2024 outlook.

The weaker outlook highlights the challenge facing OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, which earlier this month postponed a plan to start raising output in December against a backdrop of falling prices.

In a monthly report on Tuesday, OPEC said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd forecast last month. Until August, OPEC had kept the outlook unchanged since its first forecast in July 2023.

In the report, OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd, Reuters.

China accounted for the bulk of the 2024 downgrade. OPEC trimmed its Chinese growth forecast to 450,000 bpd from 580,000 bpd and said diesel use in September fell year-on-year for a seventh consecutive month.

"Diesel has been under pressure from a slowdown in construction amid weak manufacturing activity, combined with the ongoing deployment of LNG-fuelled trucks," OPEC said with reference to China.

Oil pared gains after the report was issued, with Brent crude trading below $73 a barrel.

Forecasts on the strength of demand growth in 2024 vary widely, partly due to differences over demand from China and the pace of the world's switch to cleaner fuels.

OPEC is still at the top of industry estimates and has a long way to go to match the International Energy Agency's far lower view.

The IEA, which represents industrialised countries, sees demand growth of 860,000 bpd in 2024. The agency is scheduled to update its figures on Thursday.

- OUTPUT RISES

OPEC+ has implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support prices, most of which are in place until the end of 2025.

The group was to start unwinding the most recent layer of cuts of 2.2 million bpd from December but said on Nov. 3 it will delay the plan for a month, as weak demand and rising supply outside the group maintain downward pressure on the market.

OPEC's output is also rising, the report showed, with Libyan production rebounding after being cut by unrest. OPEC+ pumped 40.34 million bpd in October, up 215,000 bpd from September. Iraq cut output to 4.07 million bpd, closer to its 4 million bpd quota.

As well as Iraq, OPEC has named Russia and Kazakhstan as among the OPEC+ countries which pumped above quotas.

Russia's output edged up in October by 9,000 bpd to about 9.01 million bpd, OPEC said, slightly above its quota.