Israeli Anger at Netanyahu Erupts at Hospital Bedsides as Judgment Day Nears for PM 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks to the media during a joint press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Tuesday, Oct. 17, 2023. (Reuters)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks to the media during a joint press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Tuesday, Oct. 17, 2023. (Reuters)
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Israeli Anger at Netanyahu Erupts at Hospital Bedsides as Judgment Day Nears for PM 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks to the media during a joint press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Tuesday, Oct. 17, 2023. (Reuters)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks to the media during a joint press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Tuesday, Oct. 17, 2023. (Reuters)

One Israeli cabinet minister was barred from a hospital visitors' entrance. Another's bodyguards were drenched with coffee thrown by a bereaved man. A third had "traitor" and "imbecile" shouted at her as she came to comfort families evacuated during the horror.

The shock Oct. 7 massacre by Hamas gunmen has rallied Israelis to one another. But there is little love shown for a government being widely accused of dropping the country's guard and engulfing it in a Gaza war that is rattling the region.

Whatever ensues, a day of judgment looms for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, after a record-long career of political comebacks.

Public fury over some 1,300 Israeli fatalities has been further fueled by Netanyahu's signature self-styling as a Churchillian strategist who foresaw national-security threats.

Another backdrop is social polarization this year over his religious-nationalist coalition's judicial overhaul drive, which triggered walkouts by some military reservists and raised doubts - now borne out in blood, some argue - about combat-readiness.

"October 2023 Debacle" read a headline in top-selling daily Yedioth Ahronoth, language meant to recall Israel's failure to anticipate a twin Egyptian and Syrian offensive in October 1973, which eventually led then-Prime Minister Golda Meir to resign.

That ouster put paid to the hegemony of Meir's center-left Labour party. Amotz Asa-El, research fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem, predicted a similar fate for Netanyahu and his long-dominant, conservative Likud party.

"It doesn't matter if there's a commission of inquiry or not, or whether or not he admits fault. All that matters is what 'middle Israelis' think - which is that this is a fiasco and that the prime minister is responsible," Asa-El told Reuters.

"He will go, and his entire establishment along with him."

An opinion poll in Maariv newspaper found that 21% of Israelis want Netanyahu to remain prime minister after the war. Sixty-six percent said "someone else" and 13% were undecided.

Were an election held today, the poll found, Likud would lose a third of its seats while the centrist National Unity party of his main rival Benny Gantz would grow by a third - setting the latter up for top office.

Israel forms emergency war cabinet

But Israelis do not now want a ballot. They want action, and as the counter-offensive builds into a potential ground invasion, Gantz, a former military chief, has set aside political differences to join Netanyahu in an emergency cabinet.

Busy with the top brass and foreign emissaries, Netanyahu has limited his encounters with the public. He met relatives of some 200 hostages taken to Gaza, without TV cameras present. Amid a mounting outcry, his wife visited one family in mourning.

Netanyahu has also yet to make any statements of personal accountability - even as his top general, defense minister, national security adviser, foreign minister, finance minister and intelligence chiefs acknowledged failure to anticipate and prevent the worst attack on civilians in Israel's history.

Israel has won vocal Western support for its counter-offensive. That may fade if a Gaza ground invasion bogs down with rising Palestinian casualties and military losses.

Military planners say the Gaza war, whose stated goal is Hamas' annihilation, could last months. Netanyahu would enjoy a political truce for the duration, Asa-El said. Whether the prime minister's health will endure is another question. In July he was fitted with a pacemaker as judicial protests surged. He will turn 74 on Saturday.

Some commentators have suggested that rifts within Israeli society, and the degree to which they sapped national security, should be attributed more broadly than to Netanyahu alone.

"We forgot to be brothers, and got a war," Amit Segal, political analyst for the top-rated Channel 12 TV, said on Telegram. "It's not too late to repair. Stop quarrelling - now."

Noting the scorn heaped on some cabinet ministers, Asa-El said fissures seemed already to be appearing within the government coalition.

"You hear people in the street who are natural Likud supporters speaking about them with unequivocal hostility," he said. "The wrath is only going to grow, and this apparent effort by Netanyahu to evade his own responsibility only makes people angrier. He just can't bring himself to say: 'We screwed up.'"



British Researcher Urges Coordinated Int’l Pressure to Prevent Sudan’s Fragmentation

Members of Sudan’s armed forces take part in a military parade on Army Day in Gadaref on August 14, 2024. (AFP)
Members of Sudan’s armed forces take part in a military parade on Army Day in Gadaref on August 14, 2024. (AFP)
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British Researcher Urges Coordinated Int’l Pressure to Prevent Sudan’s Fragmentation

Members of Sudan’s armed forces take part in a military parade on Army Day in Gadaref on August 14, 2024. (AFP)
Members of Sudan’s armed forces take part in a military parade on Army Day in Gadaref on August 14, 2024. (AFP)

Coordinated and high-level political attention is paramount to ending the devastating war in Sudan between Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), according to a British researcher.

As the conflict in Sudan escalates, fears are growing that the country could split into conflicting states under two rival governments.

Rosalind Marsden, a British researcher and diplomat said in a report to the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), that 17 months of war in Sudan have resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of civilians and displaced 10 million people – 2 million into neighboring countries and 8 million internally.

She said the war has created the world’s worst hunger crisis, pushing millions to the brink of a man-made famine.

Meanwhile, a series of international mediation efforts have failed to stop the conflict.

According to Marsden, the latest was a US-mediated attempt to restart a stalled ceasefire process in mid-August, aiming to bring together senior delegations from the warring parties – the SAF and the RSF.

Talks in Geneva were intended to achieve a nationwide cessation of hostilities, allowing humanitarian access to all areas of the country, and a robust monitoring and verification mechanism, she said.

The negotiations were co-hosted by Saudi Arabia and Switzerland, with the United Nations, African Union, Egypt and the UAE present as observers.

Some limited progress was made on humanitarian access to Darfur. The SAF agreed to temporarily reopen the Adre border crossing from Chad, which they had arbitrarily shut in February and the RSF unblocked the Al Dabbah route.

Failure of ceasefire talks

Marsden said the main reason for failure of the ceasefire talks is that both the SAF and RSF are still pursuing military victory.

The SAF refused to send a delegation to Geneva, setting unrealistic preconditions and objecting to the presence of the UAE, which they accuse of arming the RSF.

That meant mediators had to communicate virtually with SAF representatives, while conducting in-person talks with the RSF, she noted.

Marsden said that although the SAF is losing on the battlefield, it doesn’t want to negotiate from a position of weakness and has intensified aerial bombing since Geneva.

Its leaders hope that more advanced weaponry from Iran, China, Russia and elsewhere will turn the tide.

SAF Commander General Abdel Fatah al Burhan is also under pressure to continue the war from hardcore Islamists, particularly those with ties to Ali Karti, Secretary-General of the Sudan Islamic Movement and formerly foreign minister under the regime of Omar al-Bashir.

Islamist brigades provide manpower for the SAF, and Islamist control of Sudan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has made the SAF’s diplomatic position hostile to progress, she said.

RSF awaits dry season

The RSF, another creation of the Bashir regime, is also hoping to make further territorial gains once the dry season starts in October, according to Marsden.

They have been more cooperative in international forums, using SAF recalcitrance to pose in a positive light, she said.

During the Geneva talks, they agreed to a code of conduct on the protection of civilians, followed by a directive from their commander, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti.

But their commitments are severely undermined by their record of atrocities, including ethnically-targeted killing, and expanding attacks on civilians, according to the British researcher.

She said given this stalemate, more pressure is needed on countries fueling the war through military, financial and logistical support to the belligerents.

The recent renewal of the UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions regime and arms embargo on Darfur, in place since 2005 but never effectively implemented, was a missed opportunity to expand the arms embargo to all of Sudan, given the spread of the conflict and evidence that both warring parties have acquired new weapons from a range of countries.

Robust international action

Marsden said the priority now must be for the UNSC to take more robust action in the face of violations of the existing embargo.

She said sanctions are also needed “against those living in Western democracies who propagate hate speech and call for a continuation of the war.”

At the same time, the US and its partners should continue working with regional actors including Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE to try to leverage their influence on the belligerents and persuade them that everyone loses if the war continues.

In this regard, the newly-formed Aligned for Advancing Liefesaving and Peace in Sudan, which includes the US, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, the EU and the African Union could be a significant platform.

The high-level segment of the UN General Assembly will also be an important opportunity to reinforce these messages, she said.

Threat of partition

Marsden said Sudan is facing the real possibility of de facto partition under rival governments and even further fragmentation.

An army general recently vowed that it will hold on to power for another 20 years if it wins, while an RSF victory would see the state become a subsidiary of the Dagalo family business empire, she added.

If Sudan’s democracy-supporting civilians want to change these calculations, they need to unite on a common anti-war platform and make their voices central to shaping future peacebuilding efforts, she urged. International support is crucial to enabling that objective.

This means not bestowing legitimacy on either warring party, but elevating the role of civilians in diplomatic initiatives and pressing for a peaceful transition to a democratic, civilian government across the whole country.

If Africa’s third largest country disintegrates, it would have generational impacts for Sudanese. It would also spread instability to its fragile neighbors, and beyond its 800 km Red Sea coastline, Marsden warned.

Sudan can no longer be ignored amidst other global crises. Coordinated and high-level political attention is paramount to ending this devastating war, she demanded.