S&P Warns of Longterm Shortage in Egypt's Gas Supply

The Tamar gas platform off the coast of Israel. (Chevron)
The Tamar gas platform off the coast of Israel. (Chevron)
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S&P Warns of Longterm Shortage in Egypt's Gas Supply

The Tamar gas platform off the coast of Israel. (Chevron)
The Tamar gas platform off the coast of Israel. (Chevron)

Standard & Poor's warned that the escalation of Israel's war in Gaza may leave Egypt facing a long-term shortage in gas supplies.

In a report seen by Asharq Al-Awsat on Monday, the agency said that "the war will largely be contained to Israel and Gaza and last no more than three to six months."

However, further escalation, also spreading beyond Israel's borders, could involve damage to pipelines or obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

"We believe if that were to happen, Israel's gas exports could stop completely. And we don't think many producers in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) could fill that gap since most of their gas production is already under contract," read the report.

"We assume the war will remain centered in Gaza and have a low impact on Israel's neighbors, but if it spreads to important delivery channels, Egypt – which is already rationing gas – might struggle in the medium term, in our view."

Standard & Poor's indicated that this situation could eventually "hurt credit quality in the region if it escalates further."

In its latest report on Egypt on Oct. 20, the agency lowered its long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Egypt to "B-" from "B." The outlook is stable. We also affirmed our short-term sovereign credit ratings at "B."

It has also announced that it was lowering Israel's credit outlook from stable to negative. The credit rating itself remains unchanged at AA-.

Since the start of the war, Israel has shut down the Tamar gas platform, which produces about 10 billion cubic meters of gas, about 85 percent of which is used for the Israeli domestic market, and about 15 percent of the remaining is exported to Jordan to generate electricity, and Egypt to liquefy and export to Europe.

Since 2020, Israel has provided almost all of Jordan's natural gas supply and 5 percent to 10 percent of Egypt's, according to S&P Commodity Insights data.

"Yet we believe Egypt's gas supply is more exposed than Jordan's because Jordan has an unused LNG plant and an offtake agreement with Israel," said the report.

Gas production in Israel is down almost 50 percent due to the repercussions of the war.

Israel produced about 22 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas in 2022, about one percent of the global total.

It exported a combined nine bcm to Egypt and Jordan, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data. Most of Israel's gas production comes from offshore fields in the Mediterranean Sea.

Since 2019, Egypt has achieved self-sufficiency in gas production to meet domestic demand, and about 60-65 percent of it is consumed as fuel for power generation, and 20-25 percent goes for industrial use.

Egypt imported about six billion cubic meters of gas in 2022 from Israel, converting some of it into liquefied natural gas and then exporting it to Europe.

It contributes less than five percent of Europe's natural gas needs.

Europe imports most of the LNG it needs from the US and Qatar. The EU has also exceeded its 95 percent target inventory level and, barring an unusually cold winter, has sufficient gas supply without LNG from Egypt.

However, even before the recent escalation in Israel, increased demand for energy led to blackouts in Egypt. It came amid lower gas production in Egypt and a greater need for gas to fuel cooling units during this year's unseasonably hot summer.



OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters
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OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters

OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth this year and next on Tuesday, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions, marking the producer group's fourth consecutive downward revision in the 2024 outlook.

The weaker outlook highlights the challenge facing OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, which earlier this month postponed a plan to start raising output in December against a backdrop of falling prices.

In a monthly report on Tuesday, OPEC said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd forecast last month. Until August, OPEC had kept the outlook unchanged since its first forecast in July 2023.

In the report, OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd, Reuters.

China accounted for the bulk of the 2024 downgrade. OPEC trimmed its Chinese growth forecast to 450,000 bpd from 580,000 bpd and said diesel use in September fell year-on-year for a seventh consecutive month.

"Diesel has been under pressure from a slowdown in construction amid weak manufacturing activity, combined with the ongoing deployment of LNG-fuelled trucks," OPEC said with reference to China.

Oil pared gains after the report was issued, with Brent crude trading below $73 a barrel.

Forecasts on the strength of demand growth in 2024 vary widely, partly due to differences over demand from China and the pace of the world's switch to cleaner fuels.

OPEC is still at the top of industry estimates and has a long way to go to match the International Energy Agency's far lower view.

The IEA, which represents industrialised countries, sees demand growth of 860,000 bpd in 2024. The agency is scheduled to update its figures on Thursday.

- OUTPUT RISES

OPEC+ has implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support prices, most of which are in place until the end of 2025.

The group was to start unwinding the most recent layer of cuts of 2.2 million bpd from December but said on Nov. 3 it will delay the plan for a month, as weak demand and rising supply outside the group maintain downward pressure on the market.

OPEC's output is also rising, the report showed, with Libyan production rebounding after being cut by unrest. OPEC+ pumped 40.34 million bpd in October, up 215,000 bpd from September. Iraq cut output to 4.07 million bpd, closer to its 4 million bpd quota.

As well as Iraq, OPEC has named Russia and Kazakhstan as among the OPEC+ countries which pumped above quotas.

Russia's output edged up in October by 9,000 bpd to about 9.01 million bpd, OPEC said, slightly above its quota.