Arman to Asharq Al-Awsat: Terminating UNITAMS Mission May Lead to War Escalation

 The leader of the Forces of Freedom and Change, Yasser Saeed Arman.
The leader of the Forces of Freedom and Change, Yasser Saeed Arman.
TT

Arman to Asharq Al-Awsat: Terminating UNITAMS Mission May Lead to War Escalation

 The leader of the Forces of Freedom and Change, Yasser Saeed Arman.
The leader of the Forces of Freedom and Change, Yasser Saeed Arman.

The leader of the Forces of Freedom and Change, Yasser Saeed Arman, said that ending the tasks of the UN Integrated Transitional Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) would not support the endeavors to end the war in the country.

The UN Security Council on Friday decided to terminate the mandate of the UN political mission in Sudan as of this Monday, after Khartoum called for its immediate withdrawal last month.

In statements to Asharq Al-Awsat, Arman said that the UN Security Council should not have ended the mission’s tasks, stressing that the international community would not abandon the issue of war in Sudan due to its internal and external repercussions on civilians.

The prominent Sudanese politician also warned that the decision to end the mission of UNITAMS would bring about “negative results to those who called for the termination.”

“Despite the current divisions in the Security Council, all of these measures encourage the escalation of the war instead of working to end it as quickly as possible, because they constitute a danger to the Sudanese state and herald its collapse...” He stated.

In mid-November, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres received a request from Khartoum to immediately end the mandate of the UN mission, and decided to appoint the Algerian diplomat, Ramtane Lamamra, as his personal envoy to Sudan.

Asked about the priorities and goals that the Sudanese political forces must seek to achieve in the coming period, Arman stressed that those should include securing access to humanitarian aid, protecting the civilians, and ending hostilities.

He added that the Sudanese components should work to “stop the war and build a new state, new army, and institutions that give the opportunity to establish a national project that achieves democracy and stability in the country.”

Since the announcement of the termination of the UNITAMS, questions were raised about whether Sudan would fall under the provisions of Chapter Seven of the United Nations Charter, which includes mechanisms for actions taken in cases of threat to peace.

According to Arman, falling under this chapter “depends on the developments of the war, and the extent to which it poses a major challenge for civilians, which forces the international community to resort to that path that entails large and extensive costs.”



Lebanon’s War Losses Double Compared to 2006

Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
TT

Lebanon’s War Losses Double Compared to 2006

Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)

A comparison of the current human and material losses from the ongoing Hezbollah-Israel conflict with those from the July 2006 war shows that current losses have doubled.

Experts warn that the reconstruction funds and aid pledged to Lebanon 18 years ago may have limited impact once the war ends.

Total Losses

Mohammad Shamseddine, a researcher from Information International, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the death toll has risen from 900 in 2006 to 2,865 in the current conflict (as of October 31, 2024), with the number increasing daily. The number of wounded was 4,000 in 2006, but it has now exceeded 13,047.

In 2006, 600,000 people were displaced, while today that number has surpassed 1.2 million. Of these, 189,174 are in shelters. A total of 358,133 Syrians and 172,604 Lebanese have fled to Syria, and 120,000 have sought refuge in other countries.

Lebanese Economy and Trade Minister Amin Salam estimated that Lebanon’s total economic losses from the current conflict have reached $20 billion. However, economic associations report direct losses between $10 billion and $12 billion, covering damage to key sectors, homes, buildings, and infrastructure.

These figures align with estimates from Shamseddine, who believes direct and indirect losses are around $10 billion.

Of this, $4 billion occurred from October 8, 2023, to September 17, 2024 (when the conflict was mostly limited to the south), and $7 billion from September 17 to October 31, 2024, after Israel expanded the war. For comparison, losses during the 2006 war totaled $5.3 billion.

In 2006, infrastructure damage was valued at $900 million, higher than the current war's $570 million in infrastructure losses.

Housing losses in 2006 totaled $2.2 billion, while they have now surpassed $4.26 billion. Mohammad Shamseddine points out that commercial losses were similar in both conflicts, at $4.7 million.

Agricultural and environmental losses in 2006 were $450 million, but now exceed $900 million. Indirect economic damages were $1.2 billion in 2006, while they have now surpassed $3.38 billion.

One notable difference is the number of airstrikes: from October 8, 2023, to October 31, 2024, there were 11,647, compared to just 3,670 during the 33-day 2006 war.