Iran announced it was deploying a warship to the Red Sea after the US repelled an attack by the Tehran-aligned Houthi militias in Yemen on a container vessel.
US helicopters repelled the attack, sinking three ships and killing 10 militants, according to accounts by American, Maersk, and Houthi officials on Sunday.
Iran’s deployment of the Alborz is seen as an act of support to the Houthis, but it may deepen the tensions in the area and transform Yemen and its territorial waters into an arena of an international conflict.
The deployment took place after Houthi spokesman and their so-called foreign minister Mohammed Abdulsalam Flita met with secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Ali Akbar Ahmadian in Tehran.
Flita said he discussed with his host "issues of common interest." Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that the officials tackled regional security issues. Ahmadian also praised the Houthis for threatening international marine navigation in the Red Sea.
The Houthis have been targeting vessels in the Red Sea since November to show their support for the Palestinian group Hamas in the war with Israel. This has prompted major shipping companies to take the longer and costlier route around Africa's Cape of Good Hope rather than through the Suez Canal.
The Red Sea is the entry point for ships using the Suez Canal, which handles about 12% of global trade and is vital for the movement of goods between Asia and Europe.
The United States launched Operation Prosperity Guardian on Dec. 19, saying more than 20 countries had agreed to participate in the efforts to safeguard ships in Red Sea waters near Yemen.
Meanwhile, the New York Times reported on Monday that Pentagon officials have come up with plans to strike Houthi missile and drone basis in Yemen should the need arise, but there are concerns that such a move would play into Iran’s hands.
It added that senior officials at the Defense Department were pushing for harsher measures against Iran’s proxies in the region.
The British Sunday Times reported that London, alongside Washington, was preparing to launch air strikes against a number of targets. The operations may take place in the Red Sea or Yemen.
Writing in the Daily Telegraph newspaper, British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said: "We are willing to take direct action, and we won’t hesitate to take further action to deter threats to freedom of navigation in the Red Sea."
"The Houthis should be under no misunderstanding: we are committed to holding malign actors accountable for unlawful seizures and attacks," he said.
Biggest losers
Meanwhile, Yemeni academic and researcher Fares al-Beel told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Yemenis are "the biggest losers" in the Red Sea showdown.
He remarked that in spite of the threats, the US and Iran were unlikely to take any further escalatory steps.
He explained that the US doesn’t want to expand the conflict, but wants it to remain limited to Israel’s war on Gaza. Iran, for its part, cannot wage a direct confrontation because that would compromise its expansionist ambitions in the region.
It will not burn any bridges at this stage. Rather, it will use the conflict in the Red Sea to gain popular support, al-Beel went on to say.
Moreover, he said Iran’s deployment of a warship in the Red Sea is an act of moral support to the Houths. When it comes down to the wire, it will opt for non-military solutions. The same will take place with Hamas, which is backed by Tehran, after the war.
He did not rule out the possibility of the eruption of "limited confrontations", but the race for power and influence will continue to hold sway in the region.
The Yemeni people and their economy are the ultimate losers in this situation, al-Beel lamented.
Yemeni political analyst Mohammed al-Saar told Asharq Al-Awsat that the instability in the Red Sea is revealing Iran to be a major player in the conflict.
Tehran is seeking to maintain its influence in the region through providing support to the Houthis, he added.
Yemeni political analyst Mahmoud al-Taher ruled out the possibility of a major escalation in the Red Sea.
He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the countries surrounding Yemen want peace. Iran is also aware that the countries overlooking the Red Sea do not want an escalation and are seeking to defuse tensions.
Tehran deployed its warship to the Red Sea in a show of force and to send a message of support to the Houthis, he remarked.
"At any rate, the developments have proven what we have always warned of. Tehran wants to control the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and Red Sea through the Houthis," Taher stated.
This issue will weigh heavily over the potential peace or truce talks in Yemen, he predicted.
The Houthis and the forces of the Prosperity Guardian coalition will continue to clash, but Iran will not be dragged into a direct confrontation, he said. Iran will continue to order the Houthis to carry out attacks.
Furthermore, Taher said the convention on freedom of international marine navigation binds members of the UN Security Council and countries overlooking the Red Sea to protect the area. Any action by them against the Houthis should be a precursor to the liberation of Yemen’s Hodeidah province from the militias.
