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Iran's Raisi Expected in Türkiye for Delayed Gaza Talks

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) visited Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran in 2022. Mustafa Kamaci / TURKISH PRESIDENCY PRESS OFFICE/AFP
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) visited Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran in 2022. Mustafa Kamaci / TURKISH PRESIDENCY PRESS OFFICE/AFP
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Iran's Raisi Expected in Türkiye for Delayed Gaza Talks

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) visited Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran in 2022. Mustafa Kamaci / TURKISH PRESIDENCY PRESS OFFICE/AFP
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) visited Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran in 2022. Mustafa Kamaci / TURKISH PRESIDENCY PRESS OFFICE/AFP

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was expected to fly to Türkiye on Wednesday for twice-delayed talks aimed at ironing out past differences and trying to halt the spread of the Israel-Hamas war.
Raisi's visit to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan comes with the war in Gaza starting to inflame tensions and escalate fighting across the Middle East, AFP reported on Wednesday.
The United States and Britain have stepped up joint airstrikes against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen in response to their attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes.
Israel has repeatedly targeted Tehran-linked figures in Syria and appears to be on the brink of launching a full-scale war against Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.
Iran and Pakistan last week exchanged strikes against "militant" and "terrorist" targets and Türkiye itself has stepped up attacks against Kurdish groups in Syria and Iran.
The rapid pace of the Middle East escalation forced Raisi to delay his visit to Ankara twice.
His planned talks in Ankara in early January were called off when twin blasts claimed by ISIS extremist group killed 89 people at the shrine of assassinated Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps general Qasem Soleimani.
A trip he had planned for November was canceled because of conflicting schedules of diplomats involved in consultations over the Gaza war.
'Liberators'
The turmoil engulfing the Middle East since Israel went to war in retaliation for Hamas's October 7 attack has added a new layer of complexity to Türkiye’s close but uneasy relationship with Iran.
Erdogan depicts Iran-backed Hamas as legitimately elected "liberators" and not the "terrorist" organization it has been proscribed as across the Western world.
He has compared Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Adolf Hitler for pursuing an offensive that has killed more than 25,000 people -- mostly women and children -- in Gaza, according to the enclave's Hamas-run health ministry.
Relentless Israeli attacks since October 7 have left much of the besieged Palestinian territory in ruins and starved of food.
But Erdogan had initially defended Israel's right to respond to the Hamas raids that resulted in the death of 1,140 people -- also mostly civilians -- according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.
Hamas is still believed to hold around 132 of the estimated 250 people the group took hostage in the worst attack in Israel's history.
Tensions over trade
Analysts note widespread anger in Iran's official and semi-official media about Türkiye’s continuing trade and diplomatic relations with Israel.
These differences add to existing tensions between the two regional powers in Syria -- where they supported opposing camps in the country's civil war -- and in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh.
"Relations between Türkiye and Iran have always been complex and multidimensional," Istanbul's Centre for Iranian Studies director Hakki Uygur told AFP.
"Türkiye has always been able to manage it, to somehow find a middle ground. I think a similar thing will happen now."
Iran's official IRNA news agency said Raisi will be leading a "high-ranking political and economic delegation" on his first official visit to Türkiye since his election in 2021.
Containing the conflict
Iran and Türkiye share a 535-kilometer (330-mile) border and a long history of both close economic relations and diplomatic feuds.
Türkiye backed rebel efforts to topple Iranian- and Russian-backed President Bashar al-Assad during Syria's civil war.
Iran grew increasingly anxious as Türkiye supplied arms to help Azerbaijan beat back Armenian separatists from the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave in 2020 and then again last year.
Tehran fears that Baku's resurgence in the Caucasus region could feed the separatist ambitions of Iran's large ethnic Azerbaijani minority.
Analysts believe the Gaza war has helped put regional disputes on the back burner and force the two leaders to seek a joint approach to the Middle East.
"It is possible that Raisi and Erdogan might declare some symbolic measure about Palestine out of the meeting," said Clemson University professor Arash Azizi.
"But I think their focus will be mostly on how to contain the conflict and make sure it doesn't expand further, something that Ankara and Tehran both want."

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Iran Defies International Pressure, Increasing Stockpile of Near Weapons-Grade Uranium, UN Says

This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran on November 15 2024, shows the organization's spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi (R) and Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharib Abadi (L), posing for a picture with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi (2-L), in front of the gate of the Natanz nuclear enrichment plant in Iran's Isfahan province. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran / AFP)
This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran on November 15 2024, shows the organization's spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi (R) and Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharib Abadi (L), posing for a picture with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi (2-L), in front of the gate of the Natanz nuclear enrichment plant in Iran's Isfahan province. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran / AFP)
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Iran Defies International Pressure, Increasing Stockpile of Near Weapons-Grade Uranium, UN Says

This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran on November 15 2024, shows the organization's spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi (R) and Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharib Abadi (L), posing for a picture with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi (2-L), in front of the gate of the Natanz nuclear enrichment plant in Iran's Isfahan province. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran / AFP)
This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran on November 15 2024, shows the organization's spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi (R) and Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharib Abadi (L), posing for a picture with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi (2-L), in front of the gate of the Natanz nuclear enrichment plant in Iran's Isfahan province. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran / AFP)

Iran has defied international demands to rein in its nuclear program and has increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels, according to a confidential report by the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog seen Tuesday by The Associated Press.

The report by the International Atomic Energy Agency said that as of Oct. 26, Iran has 182.3 kilograms (401.9 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60%, an increase of 17.6 kilograms (38.8 pounds) since the last report in August.

Uranium enriched at 60% purity is just a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%.

The IAEA also estimated in its quarterly report that as of Oct. 26, Iran’s overall stockpile of enriched uranium stands at 6,604.4 kilograms (14,560 pounds), an increase of 852.6 kilograms (1,879.6 pounds) since August. Under the IAEA’s definition, around 42 kilograms (92.5 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60% purity is the amount at which creating one atomic weapon is theoretically possible — if the material is enriched further, to 90%.

The reports come at a critical time as Israel and Iran have traded missile attacks in recent months after more than a year of war in Gaza, which is governed by Hamas, a group supported by Iran.

Adding to the complexity, Donald Trump’s reelection raises questions about whether and how the incoming administration and Iran may engage.

Trump’s first term in office was marked by a particularly troubled period, when he pursued a policy of “maximum pressure” against Tehran. He unilaterally withdrew America from Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers, leading to the sanctions hobbling the economy, and ordered the killing of the country’s top general.

Western diplomats consider censuring Iran

Iran last week offered not to expand its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60%, during a visit to Tehran by the IAEA chief, Rafael Mariano Grossi.

The IAEA said during the meetings, “the possibility of Iran not further expanding its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% U-235 was discussed, including technical verification measures necessary for the Agency to confirm this, if implemented.”

The report said that one day after Grossi left Iran, on Nov. 16, IAEA inspectors verified that “Iran had begun implementation of preparatory measures aimed at stopping the increase of its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60 % U-235” at its underground nuclear sites in Fordow and Natanz.

The reports come ahead of this week’s regular IAEA Board of Governors meeting in Vienna. Western countries have been considering a resolution censuring Iran for its failure to improve cooperation with the agency.

A senior diplomat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said it is possible that the commitments made by Iran during the IAEA’s chief visit may not stand in case a resolution is passed. In the past, Iran has responded to resolutions by the IAEA Board of Governors by further enhancing its nuclear program.

Iran has maintained its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only, but Grossi, has previously warned that Tehran has enough uranium enriched to near-weapons-grade levels to make “several” nuclear bombs if it chose to do so. He has acknowledged the UN agency cannot guarantee that none of Iran’s centrifuges may have been peeled away for clandestine enrichment.

Little progress on improving ties

The IAEA also reported that Iran has failed to take concrete steps as of now to improve cooperation, despite pleas by Grossi, who held talks last week with Mohammad Eslami of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Iran’s reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian.

However, Tuesday’s confidential report also said that during Grossi’s visit to Iran on Nov. 14, “Iran agreed to respond to the Agency’s concerns related to Iran’s withdrawal of the designation of several experienced Agency inspectors by considering the acceptance of the designation of four additional experienced inspectors.”

In September 2023, Iran barred some of the Vienna-based agency’s most experienced inspectors.

The report also said there was no progress thus far in reinstalling more monitoring equipment, including cameras, removed in June 2022. Since then, the only recorded data comes from IAEA cameras installed at a centrifuge workshop in Isfahan in May 2023 — although Iran has not provided the IAEA with access to this data and inspectors have not been able to service the cameras.

Last week, Eslami warned that Iran could retaliate if challenged at the upcoming IAEA board meeting. Grossi acknowledged some nations were considering taking action against Iran.

In an effort to ensure Iran could not develop atomic weapons, world powers struck a deal with Tehran in 2015 under which it agreed to limit enrichment of uranium to levels necessary for nuclear power in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. UN inspectors were tasked with monitoring the program

Under the original 2015 nuclear deal, Iran was allowed to enrich uranium only up to 3.67% purity, can maintain a stockpile of uranium of 300 kilograms and is permitted to use only very basic IR-1 centrifuges, machines that spin uranium gas at high speed for enrichment purposes.

A year after the US withdrawal from the deal under Donald Trump, Iran started to gradually abandon all limits the deal put on its program and began enriching uranium to up to 60% purity.