Russia, China Push for De-escalation in Middle East Tensions

Students walking in front of an anti-United States mural in the heart of the capital, Tehran (AFP)
Students walking in front of an anti-United States mural in the heart of the capital, Tehran (AFP)
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Russia, China Push for De-escalation in Middle East Tensions

Students walking in front of an anti-United States mural in the heart of the capital, Tehran (AFP)
Students walking in front of an anti-United States mural in the heart of the capital, Tehran (AFP)

Tensions are rising in the Middle East, with Russia urging measures to calm the situation and China warning against a “cycle of retaliation.”

In response to a drone attack in Jordan, the US vowed to defend its forces, despite stating it doesn’t seek war with Iran.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Monday vowed the US would take “all necessary actions” to defend its troops after a deadly drone attack in Jordan by Iran-backed militants, even as President Joe Biden’s administration stressed it was not seeking a war with Iran.

the Kremlin, asked on Tuesday about potential US strikes on Iranian interests, said tensions in the Middle East were high and that steps were needed to de-escalate rather than destabilize the wider region.

“We do not welcome any actions that lead to destabilization in the region and increase tensions, especially against the backdrop of the excessive potential for conflict,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

“We will not welcome the continuation of such actions, regardless of who they come from. The level of tension is high now and we need to take steps to de-escalate. This is what will prevent the conflict from spreading.”

Russia’s special representative to Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, informed TASS that Moscow and Washington are currently not engaged in any dialogue regarding Syria.

Meanwhile, China on Tuesday warned against a “cycle of retaliation” in the Middle East after the US vowed to respond to the drone attack.

Beijing said it had “noted reports of casualties caused by the attack on a US military base.”

“We have also noted that Iran stated that it had nothing to do with the attack,” foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said.

“We hope that all relevant parties will remain calm and restrained... in order to avoid falling into a vicious cycle of retaliation and prevent further escalation of regional tension,” he added.

“The situation in the Middle East is currently highly complex and sensitive,” Wang said.

London Calls for De-escalation

UK Defense Minister Grant Shapps urged Iran to use its influence on militias, including the Houthi rebels in Yemen, to de-escalate tensions in the region.

In a post on “X,” Shapps affirmed that London and Washington are in continued collaboration to enhance stability in the Middle East.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also strongly condemned drone attacks linked to Iran-affiliated groups.

Sunak expressed concern and pledged to urge Iran to seek de-escalation in the region, emphasizing strong support for allies in achieving stability and peace.

It’s worth noting that in response to recent attacks in Syria and Iraq, Washington conducted a series of strikes in Iraq targeting Iran-backed groups.

Protest and Political Resolution Call

In Tehran, the Iranian Foreign Ministry strongly protested London’s accusations by summoning the British ambassador.

The ministry did not specify the reason for the protest.

During the meeting, an Iranian official rejected the baseless accusations by British authorities, condemning their sabotage activities, as reported by IRNA.

This comes after London and Washington imposed sanctions on an Iranian network, accusing it of ties to the Tehran government and targeting dissident journalists.

The Iranian official informed the British ambassador that such sanctions are “illegitimate.”

The Iranian Foreign Ministry criticized NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg’s remarks about “Iran's role in the region,” calling them baseless and akin to bitter humor.

Iran asserted that it adheres to a consistent policy of enhancing relations with neighbors while opposing foreign interference.

On his part, former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif called for an Iranian role in supporting the resistance amid the complexities of the upcoming US presidential elections.

While avoiding direct comments on the killing of US soldiers, Zarif mentioned ongoing diplomatic efforts for a political solution in Gaza and its regional consequences.

“The possibility that Biden will order direct attacks on Iranian targets cannot be ignored,” political analyst Ahmad Zeidabadi wrote in the Ham-Mihan newspaper.

But he said any US attacks would more likely target “the bases of Iranian forces in other countries.”

The reformist Etemaad Daily newspaper also said it was “possible” the Biden administration — under political pressure from the Republicans — “will target limited but strategic targets inside Iran.”

“This scenario may spell the end of diplomatic efforts between Tehran and Washington,” it said.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Tuesday the solution to the crisis must be “political” and wrote on X that “diplomacy is active in this direction.”



Three Scenarios for Russia’s Military Presence in Syria

Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
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Three Scenarios for Russia’s Military Presence in Syria

Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday he would meet former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Russia after his regime fell in Damascus. But what will Putin say to his former ally? And how might their first exchange unfold, given Russia’s role in helping Assad escape on a chaotic night?

The Kremlin, known for staging Putin’s meetings with precision, might opt to limit media coverage this time. Putin could be seen sitting at a small table with Assad, now on asylum

in Moscow, in a soundless scene—one that leaves little room for formal pleasantries.

Why has Putin announced plans to meet Assad? Is it to reprimand him? Many in Russia believe Assad’s stubbornness has hurt Moscow’s efforts, threatened its gains in Syria, and could eventually risk its key military presence there.

As details remain unclear, Russian experts are racing to analyze developments in Syria and outline scenarios for the next phase.

Some Russian experts have painted grim scenarios. A member of the prestigious Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy warned of potential risks, including a prolonged conflict with civil war elements, a humanitarian catastrophe with millions of refugees, escalating migration in Europe, and rising tensions among nations like Israel, the US, and Iran.

He also predicted a new wave of international terrorism that could reach far beyond the region.

Other experts echoed this pessimism. One posted an image of a Syrian dissident stepping on a statue of Assad’s father, warning that “this is just the beginning.” Another blamed the crisis on the “Obama curse,” citing the West’s interference, while a third shared a bleak analysis titled, “We Must Pray for Syria.”

So far, Russian media and think tanks have avoided any optimistic outlooks for Syria’s future.

Experts, who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat, believe Moscow may be preparing to handle one of three possible scenarios in Syria.

The first, most favorable for Russia’s interests, involves Moscow reaching an agreement with the new Syrian authorities to maintain its military presence for a limited period.

This could mean replacing the current 49-year agreements with a five-year deal to facilitate a gradual Russian withdrawal. Such an arrangement could help the new leadership in Syria manage Western pressure to cut ties with Moscow.

The second scenario envisions Russia giving up its airbase in Hmeimim while retaining a significant presence in Tartus. This would mirror agreements from 1972, which allowed Russian naval vessels to use the Tartus logistics center in the Mediterranean. This compromise would preserve Russia’s interests while reducing Western pressure on Damascus.

The third scenario involves a full Russian withdrawal from both bases, with Moscow later seeking agreements for shared use of air and sea ports. Such agreements, similar to those Russia has signed with other countries, are less likely to provoke Western opposition.

Regardless of the outcome, the Kremlin has yet to develop a clear strategy for dealing with the emerging situation in Syria.

Key questions remain, including how to curb Iran’s regional influence, manage Türkiye and Israel’s growing roles in Syria, and establish a new regional balance that secures Moscow’s minimum interests.