IMF, World Bank Warn Gaza War, Red Sea Attacks Imperil Global Economy

Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva attends a session at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 12 February 2024. (EPA)
Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva attends a session at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 12 February 2024. (EPA)
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IMF, World Bank Warn Gaza War, Red Sea Attacks Imperil Global Economy

Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva attends a session at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 12 February 2024. (EPA)
Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva attends a session at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 12 February 2024. (EPA)

The IMF and World Bank warned on Monday that the Gaza war and the related attacks on shipping through the Red Sea pose threats to the global economy.

The Israel-Hamas war raging since October has already hit the Middle East and North Africa region's economy, said the International Monetary Fund's managing director Kristalina Georgieva.

Its knock-on effects could impact the world the longer the fighting drags on, Georgieva told the World Governments Summit, an annual gathering of business and political leaders in Dubai.

"I fear most a longevity of the conflict because, if it goes on and on, the risk of spillover goes up," she said.

"Right now we see a risk of spillover in the Suez Canal," she said, as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militias have attacked Red Sea shipping leading to the crucial maritime passage.

The Houthis say they are targeting what they consider Israeli-linked shipping in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, pushing some cargo carriers to take longer and more expensive routes to avoid attacks.

The UN Conference on Trade and Development warned late last month that the volume of commercial traffic passing through the Suez Canal had fallen more than 40 percent in the previous two months.

Georgieva said that if there are other "consequences in terms of where the fighting goes, it could be more problematic for the world as a whole".

On a personal note, she added that "as a woman, as a mother, grandmother... I pray for peace".

The Gaza Strip has been under intense Israeli assault for over four months, in retaliation for the October 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel.

Hamas's unprecedented attack resulted in the deaths of about 1,160 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel vowed to destroy the militant group and launched air strikes and a ground offensive that have killed at least 28,340 people, mostly women and children, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory.

Despite the war-related uncertainties, Georgieva said the IMF is "very confident that the world economy is now poised for this soft landing we have been dreaming of".

"I expect to see by mid-year interest rates going in the direction inflation has been going for the last year now," she said, when asked about interest rates being cut in leading economies.

Also speaking at the summit, World Bank President Ajay Banga said that "what's going on Gaza, but also the challenges of Ukraine... and the Red Sea" are among the top challenges to the global economic outlook.

"When you add these variables to what is already turning out to be probably the lowest growth of the last 55 years.... that's something we have to keep a close eye on," he said.



Expert: Türkiye Anti-inflation Steps Don’t Go Far Enough

People shop at a bazaar in Istanbul. Reuters
People shop at a bazaar in Istanbul. Reuters
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Expert: Türkiye Anti-inflation Steps Don’t Go Far Enough

People shop at a bazaar in Istanbul. Reuters
People shop at a bazaar in Istanbul. Reuters

Although Turkish inflation slowed in September, it is still raging out of control with the government avoiding difficult decisions that could help tackle it, experts told AFP.

Türkiye has experienced spiraling inflation the past two years, peaking at an annual rate of 85.5 percent in October 2022 and 75.45 percent in May.

The government claims it slowed to 49.4 percent in September.

But the figures are disputed by the ENAG group of independent economists who estimate that year-on-year inflation stood at 88.6 percent in September.

Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek has said Ankara was hoping to bring inflation down to 17.6 percent by the end of 2025 and to “single digits” by 2026.

And President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently hailed Türkiye’s success in “starting the process of permanent disinflation.”

“The hard times are behind us,” he said.

But economists interviewed by AFP said the surge in consumer prices in Türkiye had become “chronic” and is being exacerbated by some government policies.

“The current drop is simply due to a base effect. The price rises over the course of a month is still high, at 2.97 percent across Türkiye and 3.9 percent in Istanbul.

“You can’t call this a success story,” said Mehmet Sisman, economics professor at Istanbul’s Marmara University.

Spurning conventional economic practice of raising interest rates to curb inflation, Erdogan has long defended a policy of lowering rates. That has sent the lira sliding, further fueling inflation.

But after his reelection in May 2023, he gave Türkiye’s Central Bank free rein to raise its main interest rate from 8.5 to 50 percent between June 2023 and March 2024.

The central bank’s rate remained unchanged in September for the sixth consecutive month.

“The fight against inflation revolves around the priorities of the financial sector. As a result, it is done indirectly and generates uncertainty,” explained Erinc Yeldan, economics professor at Kadir Has University in Istanbul.

But raising interest rates alone is not enough to steady inflation without addressing massive budget deficits, according to Yakup Kucukkale, an economics professor at Karadeniz Technical University.

He pointed to Türkiye’s record budget deficit of 129.6 billion lira (3.45 billion euros).

“Simsek says this is due to expenditure linked to the reconstruction in regions hit by the February 2023 earthquake,” he said of the disaster that killed more than 53,000 people.

“But the real black hole is due to the costly public-private partnership contracts,” he said, referring to infrastructure contracts which critics say are often awarded to firms close to Erdogan’s government.

Such contracts cover construction and management of everything from motorways and bridges to hospitals and airports, and are often accompanied by generous guarantees such as state compensation in the event they are underused.

“We should question these contracts, which are a burden on the budget because this compensation is indexed to the dollar or the euro,” said Kucukkale.

Anti-inflation measures also tend to impact low-income households at a time when the minimum wage hasn’t been raised since January, he said.

“But these people already have little purchasing power. To lower demand, such measures must target higher-income groups, but there is hardly anything affecting them,” he said.