Ukraine Fights Russia in Sudan

Sudanese army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan visits a military base in the coastal city of Port Sudan on August 28, 2023. (AFP)
Sudanese army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan visits a military base in the coastal city of Port Sudan on August 28, 2023. (AFP)
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Ukraine Fights Russia in Sudan

Sudanese army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan visits a military base in the coastal city of Port Sudan on August 28, 2023. (AFP)
Sudanese army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan visits a military base in the coastal city of Port Sudan on August 28, 2023. (AFP)

Ukrainian special forces have begun training members of Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed Ukrainian and Sudanese military officials.

The newspaper said when Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudan’s military ruler, found himself besieged by Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the country’s capital last summer, he called an unlikely ally for help: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Zelensky responded positively because "Burhan had been quietly supplying Kyiv with weapons since shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022," it wrote.

The first wave of Ukrainian troops—nearly 100 soldiers, mostly from HUR's Timur unit—landed on a charter jet in Sudan in mid-August.

The Ukrainians' first mission was to help get Burhan out of Khartoum, where the RSF had surrounded him. But not long after they arrived, Burhan drove in a convoy to the compound outside the capital where the Ukrainians were based.

Burhan thanked the Ukrainians for their efforts, then headed to Port Sudan, a city on the Red Sea that his forces still controlled. He met Zelensky at Ireland's Shannon Airport a few weeks later.

Following the meeting, the Ukrainian President wrote on Telegram: "We discussed our common security challenges, namely the activities of illegal armed groups financed by Russia."

The Ukrainian troops supplied Burhan's guards with new AKM rifles and silencers.

A 30-year-old officer from the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, known by the call sign King, who led the first group of Ukrainians to arrive in Sudan, said his team found strong differences between the Russian-Ukrainian war and the local conflict.

According to him, soldiers from both sides fought in sandals and fired at the enemy while holding their weapons above their heads. A large part of the Sudanese army was unmotivated and had not been paid for months. Soldiers did not wear insignia, which constantly led to losses due to friendly fire.

Taking advantage of the poor equipment of the "pro-Wagner" RSF, the Ukrainian military focused on night operations using night vision devices and night drones.

The intelligence officers went on missions at dusk around 8:00 p.m., traveling in vans and moving in several groups of six soldiers each. All operations were completed before dawn so they could return unnoticed at night.

"Even if we wanted to do something during the day, we're a group of white people," King said. "Everyone would realize what was going on."

Source of gold, arms

The WSJ said Sudan has become a battlefield in the Russia-Ukraine war because it is rich in two resources: weapons and gold.

During frequent conflicts in the country over several decades, arms poured in—directly and indirectly—from the US, Russia, China and elsewhere.

As a result, Sudan had plenty of weaponry to spare in early 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and Kyiv was searching for all the arms it could find.

"We took a lot of weapons out of Sudan. Different countries paid for them. Sudan had a wide range of weapons, from Chinese to American," said Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.

Meanwhile, Russia has long been plumbing Sudan for gold. Wagner led Moscow's operation in the country, as it did in several other African nations. They trained RSF fighters, who in turn provided security for Russian entities at the mines.

Before the conflict in Sudan began last spring, only 30% of the gold mined in the country was officially registered with the central bank, leaving $4 billion of gold annually unaccounted for, according to Sudanese officials and activists. Much of that smuggled gold ended up in Russian hands, activists say.

RSF and Wagner

When the war erupted, the RSF initially refused Wagner's offer of heavy weapons, concerned about alienating the US.

But following military setbacks in April, the group reversed course, according to international security officials.

On April 28, a convoy of Toyota pickups supervised by Wagner brought weapons, including shoulder-mounted antiaircraft missiles from the neighboring Central African Republic, where Wagner had established a power base in recent years.

Wagner also began recruiting men from the Central African Republic to fight in Sudan and the RSF soon advanced into Khartoum, WSJ reported.

After the death of Wagner's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin last year, the Russian Defense Ministry took control of the group's operations in Africa, though it is still widely known as Wagner.

Wagner

In November, King's team went home, and another arrived with new troops from the Timur unit. His team captured one Russian Wagner fighter and killed two others.

A 40-year-old Ukrainian officer, who goes by the call sign Prada and led one of the Ukrainian teams in Sudan, told the newspaper the man was detained during a fight in Omdurman, Khartoum's twin city on the west bank of the Nile River, after he had grown confused about which fighters were on which side, and stayed after his own side retreated.

"Wagner has become like a franchise in Sudan. They fight using locals. They give them patches, pay them a salary, and say, 'Now you're Wagner,' " Prada said. "It was never our goal to chase individual Wagner soldiers."

He said: "The goal was to disrupt Russian interests in Sudan."



The Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Truce is Holding so Far, Despite Violations

Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
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The Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Truce is Holding so Far, Despite Violations

Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)

A fragile ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanon's Hezbollah has held up for over a month, even as its terms seem unlikely to be met by the agreed-upon deadline.

The deal struck on Nov. 27 to halt the war required Hezbollah to immediately lay down its arms in southern Lebanon and gave Israel 60 days to withdraw its forces there and hand over control to the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers.

So far, Israel has withdrawn from just two of the dozens of towns it holds in southern Lebanon. And it has continued striking what it says are bases belonging to Hezbollah, which it accuses of attempting to launch rockets and move weapons before they can be confiscated and destroyed, The AP reported.

Hezbollah, which was severely diminished during nearly 14 months of war, has threatened to resume fighting if Israel does not fully withdraw its forces by the 60-day deadline.

Yet despite accusations from both sides about hundreds of ceasefire violations, the truce is likely to hold, analysts say. That is good news for thousands of Israeli and Lebanese families displaced by the war still waiting to return home.

“The ceasefire agreement is rather opaque and open to interpretation,” said Firas Maksad, a senior fellow with the Middle East Institute in Washington. That flexibility, he said, may give it a better chance of holding in the face of changing circumstances, including the ouster of Syria's longtime leader, Bashar Assad, just days after the ceasefire took effect.

With Assad gone, Hezbollah lost a vital route for smuggling weapons from Iran. While that further weakened Hezbollah’s hand, Israel had already agreed to the US-brokered ceasefire.

Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel on Oct. 8, 2023 — the day after Hamas launched a deadly attack into Israel that ignited the ongoing war in Gaza. Since then, Israeli air and ground assaults have killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon, including hundreds of civilians. At the height of the war, more than 1 million Lebanese people were displaced.

Hezbollah rockets forced some 60,000 from their homes in northern Israel, and killed 76 people in Israel, including 31 soldiers. Almost 50 Israeli soldiers were killed during operations inside Lebanon.

Here’s a look at the terms of the ceasefire and its prospects for ending hostilities over the long-term.

What does the ceasefire agreement say? The agreement says that both Hezbollah and Israel will halt “offensive” military actions, but that they can act in self-defense, although it is not entirely clear how that term may be interpreted.

The Lebanese army is tasked with preventing Hezbollah and other militant groups from launching attacks into Israel. It is also required to dismantle Hezbollah facilities and weapons in southern Lebanon — activities that might eventually be expanded to the rest of Lebanon, although it is not explicit in the ceasefire agreement.

The United States, France, Israel, Lebanon and the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, are responsible for overseeing implementation of the agreement.

“The key question is not whether the deal will hold, but what version of it will be implemented,” Maksad, the analyst, said.

Is the ceasefire being implemented? Hezbollah has for the most part halted its rocket and drone fire into Israel, and Israel has stopped attacking Hezbollah in most areas of Lebanon. But Israel has launched regular airstrikes on what it says are militant sites in southern Lebanon and in the Bekaa Valley.

Israeli forces have so far withdrawn from two towns in southern Lebanon - Khiam and Shamaa. They remain in some 60 others, according to the International Organization for Migration, and around 160,000 Lebanese remain displaced.

Lebanon has accused Israel of repeatedly violating the ceasefire agreement and last week submitted a complaint to the UN Security Council that says Israel launched some 816 “ground and air attacks” between the start of the ceasefire and Dec. 22, 2024.

The complaint said the attacks have hindered the Lebanese army's efforts to deploy in the south and uphold its end of the ceasefire agreement.

Until Israel hands over control of more towns to the Lebanese army, Israeli troops have been destroying Hezbollah infrastructure, including weapons warehouses and underground tunnels. Lebanese authorities say Israel has also destroyed civilian houses and infrastructure.

What happens after the ceasefire has been in place for 60 days? Israel's withdrawal from Lebanese towns has been slower than anticipated because of a lack of Lebanese army troops ready to take over, according to Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, a military spokesman. Lebanon disputes this, and says it is waiting for Israel to withdraw before entering the towns.

Shoshani said Israel is satisfied with the Lebanese army's control of the areas it has already withdrawn from, and that while it would prefer a faster transfer of power, security is its most important objective.

Israel does not consider the 60-day timetable for withdrawal to be “sacred,” said Harel Chorev, an expert on Israel-Lebanon relations at Tel Aviv University who estimates that Lebanon will need to recruit and deploy thousands more troops before Israel will be ready to hand over control.

Hezbollah officials have said that if Israeli forces remain in Lebanon 60 days past the start of the ceasefire, the militant group might return to attacking them. But Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Kassem said Wednesday that, for now, the group is holding off to give the Lebanese state a chance to "take responsibility” for enforcing the agreement.

Over the final two months of the war, Hezbollah suffered major blows to its leadership, weapons and forces from a barrage of Israeli airstrikes, and a ground invasion that led to fierce battles in southern Lebanon. The fall of Assad was another big setback.

“The power imbalance suggests Israel may want to ensure greater freedom of action after the 60-day period,” Maksad, the analyst, said. And Hezbollah, in its weakened position, now has a “strong interest” in making sure the deal doesn't fall apart altogether “despite Israeli violations,” he said.

While Hezbollah may not be in a position to return to open war with Israel, it or other groups could mount guerilla attacks using light weaponry if Israeli troops remain in southern Lebanon, said former Lebanese army Gen. Hassan Jouni. And even if Israel does withdraw all of its ground forces, Jouni said, the Israeli military could could continue to carry out sporadic airstrikes in Lebanon, much as it has done in Syria for years.