Lebanon’s Precarious Sectarian Balance Tipping amid Hezbollah-Israeli War

A view shows buildings in the town of Klayaa, southern Lebanon, March 29, 2024. (Reuters)
A view shows buildings in the town of Klayaa, southern Lebanon, March 29, 2024. (Reuters)
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Lebanon’s Precarious Sectarian Balance Tipping amid Hezbollah-Israeli War

A view shows buildings in the town of Klayaa, southern Lebanon, March 29, 2024. (Reuters)
A view shows buildings in the town of Klayaa, southern Lebanon, March 29, 2024. (Reuters)

As the Lebanese Christian village of Rmeish marks its first Easter since the Gaza war erupted, residents say a parallel confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel is dragging them into a conflict they did not choose.

Like many Christians elsewhere in southern Lebanon, residents are angry and fearful their homes could be caught in the cross-fire and their families forced to flee -- permanently -- from their ancestral villages near the Lebanon-Israel border.

Earlier this week, a Rmeish resident confronted a group of armed men trying to launch rockets at Israel from within the village. Some villagers rang church bells to sound the alarm, and the armed men moved off to fire rockets from another neighborhood, according to mayor Milad al-Alam and Rmeish residents.

"What we've been saying for the last six months is: among our own homes, keep us neutral. Any strike in return would have brought huge losses," Alam told Reuters.

Hezbollah began launching rockets from hilltops and villages in southern Lebanon at Israel on Oct. 8 in support of its Palestinian ally Hamas, which carried out a cross-border attack into Israel the previous day that triggered a fierce Israeli land, air and sea offensive on the Gaza Strip.

The villagers' resentment reflects criticism from Christian clerics and politicians opposed to Hezbollah, who have long accused the group of undermining the state through its possession of a controversial arsenal that outguns the national army, and of monopolizing decisions of war and peace.

"We have nothing to do with this war. Do they (Hezbollah) want to displace us?" said a 40-year-old resident of Rmeish who asked not to be identified, fearing that criticizing Hezbollah could bring reprisals. Iran-backed Hezbollah denied its fighters had tried to launch rockets from Rmeish.

More than a dozen sects coexist in a precarious balancing act in tiny Lebanon, reflected in a power-sharing system that reserves government posts by religion. The presidency and central bank governor – two top posts reserved for Maronite Christians – have been vacant since Oct. 2022 and July 2023 respectively due to divisions over choosing successors.

‘No say’ in system

Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese have been displaced both internally and to foreign countries by conflict and hardship over the last century, with the 15-year civil war seeing killings and kidnappings according to sect. Some 90,000 people have been displaced from southern Lebanon since the conflict broke out in October.

Christian lawmaker Ghada Ayoub, who represents a constituency in the south and hails from the anti-Hezbollah Lebanese Forces party, told Reuters that Christians were standing up to Hezbollah "because it is encroaching on their presence," and that the war was deepening fissures in Lebanese politics.

"The question is now: are there even any shared points left that we can carry on with – that we can build a state with?" she said.

The area most impacted by the shelling is the border strip, home to about a dozen Christian villages including Rmeish. They are nestled in rolling hills of olive groves, pine trees and tobacco fields -- now too dangerous to plant or harvest due to shelling.

"The areas around us were really affected – there have been strikes 500, 600 meters away. Our harvests have been ruined," said Joseph Salameh, a local official in the town of Klayaa, about four km (2.5 miles) from Lebanon's southern border.

Lebanon was already hit hard by a financial meltdown that began in 2019. With tourists staying away due to bombing, shops closed and schools shuttered or sheltering thousands displaced by the fighting, villages across the predominantly Shiite south have been dealt another severe economic blow, prompting fears among locals of a Christian exodus.

"Now the war has added to it and is encouraging our children to leave... Christians are no longer able to take on more than others because the problems of this country have become too many," Salameh said.

Lebanon's top Christian clerics have also sounded the alarm in weekly sermons. Maronite Patriarch Boutros al-Rahi called early on in the Gaza war for Lebanon to stay on the sidelines and more recently said war had been "imposed" on Christians.

Mounting outcry

Greek Orthodox Metropolitan of Beirut Elias Audeh asked earlier this month if it was fair for "one faction of Lebanese to decide on behalf of everyone, and take unilateral decisions that not all Lebanese agree on".

With outcry mounting, Hezbollah's main Christian ally the Free Patriotic Movement has even ramped up criticism, saying its nearly two-decade alliance with Hezbollah had been "shaken".

"The main problem that arose recently was crossing the limits of defending Lebanon and getting involved in a conflict in which we cannot make decisions," FPM head Gebran Bassil said.

Their alliance had provided Hezbollah with supporters from a religious community outside its traditional base, but the pair have split over several issues in the last two years – including who should be Lebanon's next president.

Michael Young at the Carnegie Middle East Center said Bassil's comments were an attempt to gain some leverage over Hezbollah by signaling a rift – but also reflected Christian unease with the status quo.

"The mood among the Christian community is almost a psychological divorce from the system. They don't feel that they have a say in the system and in a way it's true -- Hezbollah is in control of much of the system," Young told Reuters.



Israel Says It Will Keep Troops in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria Indefinitely. What Does that Mean?

Israeli soldiers gather next to a military post on the border with Gaza Strip, in southern Israel, Tuesday, March 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)
Israeli soldiers gather next to a military post on the border with Gaza Strip, in southern Israel, Tuesday, March 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)
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Israel Says It Will Keep Troops in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria Indefinitely. What Does that Mean?

Israeli soldiers gather next to a military post on the border with Gaza Strip, in southern Israel, Tuesday, March 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)
Israeli soldiers gather next to a military post on the border with Gaza Strip, in southern Israel, Tuesday, March 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

The Israeli defense minister says his country's troops will stay in “security zones” in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon and Syria indefinitely, after Israel unilaterally expanded its frontiers in the war unleashed by Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack.

Israel says it needs to hold on to the zones to prevent similar attacks, but the takeovers appear to meet the dictionary definition of military occupation, The Associated Press said.

The acquisition of territory by force is universally seen as a violation of international law, something Western allies of Israel have repeatedly invoked with regard to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Israel, which has captured territory during wars with its Arab neighbors going back to the country's establishment in 1948, says this is a special case. For decades, Israeli governments said they must hold such lands for self-defense but would return them in peace agreements, as when Israel restored the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt in the Camp David Accords.

Israel has formally annexed east Jerusalem, as well as the Golan Heights captured from Syria. It has occupied the West Bank, home to some 3 million Palestinians, for more than half a century and built settlements there that today house more than 500,000 Jewish settlers.

Israel withdrew soldiers and settlers from Gaza in 2005 but imposed a blockade, along with Egypt, after Hamas took power two years later.

In a statement Wednesday, Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israeli troops would remain in the so-called security zones in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon “in any temporary or permanent situation.”

What are the ‘security zones’?

Israel launched a massive offensive after the 2023 attack and carved out a wide buffer zone along the border. Israel ended its ceasefire with Hamas last month and has since expanded the buffer zone, established corridors across the strip and encircled the southern city of Rafah.

Israel now controls over 50% of Gaza, according to experts. Katz did not specify which territories he was referring to.

Israel was supposed to withdraw from Lebanon under the ceasefire it reached with the Hezbollah militant group in November after more than a year of fighting. But troops have remained in five strategic locations along the border and have continued to carry out strikes against what Israel says are militant targets.

When opposition factions overthrew Syrian President Bashar Assad in December, Israeli forces advanced from the Golan Heights into the Syrian side of a buffer zone established after the 1973 war. Israel has since expanded its zone of control to nearby villages, setting off clashes with residents last month.

Israel has also repeatedly bombed Syrian military bases and other targets, and has said it will not allow Syrian security forces to operate south of Damascus.

How have Israel's neighbors responded?

Lebanon and Syria have condemned Israel's seizure of their territory as a blatant violation of their sovereignty and of international law. But neither country's armed forces are capable of defending their borders against Israel.

Hezbollah, which was established during the early years of Israel's 1982-2000 occupation of southern Lebanon, has threatened to renew hostilities if Israel does not complete its withdrawal, but its military capabilities have been severely depleted by the war and the fall of Assad, who had been a close ally.

While Hezbollah seems unlikely to return to war, an ongoing Israeli occupation could complicate Lebanese efforts to negotiate the group's disarmament.

The Palestinians seek an independent state in east Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza, territories Israel captured in the 1967 Mideast war. A two-state solution is widely seen internationally as the only way to resolve the conflict, but the last serious peace talks broke down more than 15 years ago.

Hamas has said it will only release the remaining 59 hostages held in Gaza — 24 of whom are believed to be alive — in exchange for a full Israeli withdrawal from the territory and a lasting ceasefire. Israel's vow to remain in Gaza could further complicate slow-moving talks on a new ceasefire.

What is the Trump administration's position?

The United States has not yet commented on Katz's remarks.

But the Trump administration has expressed full support for Israel's actions in Gaza, including its decision to end the ceasefire, renew military operations with a surprise bombardment that killed hundreds of people, and seal off the territory from all food, fuel or other supplies.

During his first term, President Donald Trump gave unprecedented support to Israel's acquisition of territory by force, at times upending decades of US foreign policy.

Under Trump, the US became the first and so far only state to recognize Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights. Trump also relocated the US Embassy to Jerusalem, lending support to Israel's claims to the entire city. Both policies continued under the Biden administration.

Trump has proposed that the US take ownership of Gaza after the war and redevelop it as a tourist destination. He has called for the Palestinian population to be resettled in other countries, a plan that has been rejected by Palestinians and much of the international community.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to implement the plan after Hamas is defeated, saying Israel supports the “voluntary emigration” of Palestinians from a territory it largely controls, much of which has been rendered uninhabitable by its offensive.