عربي English Türkçe اردو فارسى
Logo
Latest News
Business

World Bank Explains to Asharq Al-Awsat Saudi Growth Forecast Surge for 2025

Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank (Asharq Al-Awsat)
TT
TT

World Bank Explains to Asharq Al-Awsat Saudi Growth Forecast Surge for 2025

Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The World Bank is forecasting a 5.9% growth for Saudi Arabia’s economy in 2025, surpassing previous estimates. This surge is fueled by heightened non-oil activities and anticipated increases in oil prices, as explained by Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank.

The bank now expects the Kingdom’s economy to expand by 5.9% next year, a significant increase from its earlier prediction of 4.2%. It also forecasts a 4.8% growth in the non-oil private sector in Saudi Arabia this year.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Gatti explained that the higher forecast for Saudi Arabia’s economy next year relies on two main factors:

Firstly, boosting non-oil activities through loose fiscal policy, large investments (especially public ones), and strong private spending, all while keeping inflation low with generous subsidies.

Secondly, expecting a significant rise in oil production in 2025 due to current trends and extending oil production cuts until mid-2024, leading to a 5.9% GDP growth.

Economic Shocks and Debt Impact

Discussing a report about conflict and debt in the MENA region, Gatti highlighted how conflict exacerbates major weaknesses in the region, notably the surge in debt compared to GDP.

Over the past decade, most regional economies saw their debt levels rise, a trend accelerated by the pandemic.

By 2023, debt had climbed to 88% of GDP in oil-importing countries, up from 81% in 2013. Importantly, debt levels are much higher for oil-importing nations, averaging 88% of GDP in 2023 compared to 34% for oil-exporting ones.

Gatti stressed the importance of transparency in debt management, particularly for oil-importing nations. She also underscored the need to address off-budget expenditures, which are not officially recorded.

She warned that financial adjustments made to handle high interest payments might not fully tackle the increasing debt burdens resulting from off-budget spending. This is especially pertinent for oil-importing countries in the MENA region, Gatti noted.

Oil-exporting nations face the task of broadening their economic and financial sources due to shifts in global oil markets and rising demand for renewable energy.

Gatti explained that uncertainty in the MENA region, already higher than in other emerging markets and developing countries, intensified after October 7 (the start of the conflict between Israel and Hamas) and remains higher than in those regions.

While noting that the report assumes no escalation in conflict, she cautioned about its lasting effects.

As per Gatti, studies show that debt patterns after conflict differ from other disasters. Debt tends to rise after nearly any natural disaster, and GDP growth drops in the disaster year. But growth rebounds in the following years.

After armed conflict, debt spikes significantly, like in any disaster. However, economic recovery post-conflict doesn’t happen, meaning government actions after fighting may not boost economic growth. This means pre-existing debt vulnerabilities could worsen if conflict escalates in the Middle East and North Africa.

Most Viewed

 
 
Business

Saudi Energy Minister: Oil Pumped Through East-West Pipeline Reached 5.8 Million Barrels

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. Reuters file photo
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. Reuters file photo
TT
TT

Saudi Energy Minister: Oil Pumped Through East-West Pipeline Reached 5.8 Million Barrels

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. Reuters file photo
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. Reuters file photo

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Tuesday that oil pumped through the East-West Pipeline, reached 5.8 million barrels as of Tuesday morning.

The pipeline runs to the Kingdom's Red Sea export hub of Yanbu.

Since the disruption of ⁠oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, Riyadh has been using the pipeline to reroute oil to Yanbu.

Prince Abdulaziz spoke at the Made in GCC 2026 Forum and Exhibition held in Bahrain’s capital Manama.

Business

Saudi Arabia Bolsters Food Security with $798 Million for Strategic Commodities

Agricultural land in Saudi Arabia (SPA) 
Agricultural land in Saudi Arabia (SPA) 
TT
TT

Saudi Arabia Bolsters Food Security with $798 Million for Strategic Commodities

Agricultural land in Saudi Arabia (SPA) 
Agricultural land in Saudi Arabia (SPA) 

Saudi Arabia’s Agricultural Development Fund (ADF) is playing a central role in national efforts to bolster food security, allocating SAR 3 billion ($798 million) to finance imports of strategic commodities through direct lending and partnerships with banks.

The funding is designed to cushion the impact of supply-chain disruptions and difficulties in getting goods into the Kingdom, with disbursements to beneficiaries continuing through the end of this year.

Saudi Arabia no longer views food security solely through the lens of increasing domestic production. Its approach has evolved into an integrated system encompassing stronger production, secure supply chains, strategic reserves, the localization of modern technologies and more efficient use of water and other resources.

By the end of the third quarter, the ADF had extended more than SAR 600 million ($159.6 million) in loans and credit facilities across several regions of the Kingdom. The financing covers projects in red meat, supply chains and processing industries, with the goal of increasing domestic production and sustaining food security.

Development loans

Since the beginning of the year, the fund has also extended more than SAR 150 million ($40 million) in development loans.

A total of 737 loans were issued, including 412 for rain-fed crops, around 236 for fruit production, processing and marketing, and about 56 for field crops and vegetables. Coffee production and processing accounted for around 14 loans, while four covered operating costs for date purchases.

Habib Al-Shammari, spokesman for the ADF, told Asharq Al-Awsat that development loans allow individuals to finance a range of agricultural activities, enabling them to contribute to economic and social development while helping strengthen food security.

They also allow farmers to capitalize on available opportunities and resources and the comparative advantages of different regions, while improving efficiency and promoting the optimal, sustainable use of agricultural and renewable water resources.

Among the programs backed by the fund is the Basic Commodities Import Initiative, carried out in coordination with the National Development Fund and the General Food Security Authority. It seeks to bolster strategic reserves of essential commodities and maintain stable food supply chains.

The ADF said the initiative reflects efforts by the Saudi leadership to address the repercussions of current conditions in the region by ensuring adequate supplies of essential food products, strengthening strategic stocks and maintaining the flow of goods to the domestic market.

The fund operates under an integrated strategy aligned with the National Agriculture Strategy, the Food Security Strategy and the National Development Fund Strategy, making it one of the key enablers of the Kingdom’s food security and environmental sustainability goals.

Al-Shammari said the ADF’s role extends beyond financing farmers and investors. Its range of financial products helps the agricultural sector adopt and localize modern technologies, increase productivity and become more sustainable, while taking water-security requirements into account.

Water at the heart of financing

The fund encourages agricultural projects to embrace technologies that reduce water and energy consumption while improving production efficiency.

Particular attention is given to projects that reuse treated water, alongside efforts to incorporate environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards throughout the financing process.

Backing also extends to innovative startups developing solutions in smart and vertical farming, water and energy technologies, agricultural production and food.

The approach reflects a broader shift in agricultural finance, from funding conventional production to investing in technologies capable of raising output while conserving natural resources, particularly water and energy, among the main challenges facing the sector’s long-term sustainability.

Research partnerships

In parallel, the ADF continues to forge strategic partnerships with government agencies, the private sector and research institutions to develop and apply modern agricultural practices and advance the technologies it finances.

Its partners include King Saud University, King Faisal University, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), and the National Center for Sustainable Agriculture Research and Development (Estidamah). The partnerships examine agricultural methods that can promote the adoption of modern technologies and improve efficiency across the sector.

Through this framework, the fund seeks to generate lasting economic and environmental benefits by increasing agricultural output, improving resource efficiency and reducing risks associated with water scarcity, in support of the Kingdom’s food-security and water-sustainability goals.

Against this backdrop, agricultural financing is expanding into investment across the entire food-security system, from meat and agricultural production to storage, refrigeration and processing, through to agricultural technologies, water and energy.

Ultimately, the approach is aimed at ensuring stable supplies and building strategic reserves capable of weathering changing conditions. Saudi food security is therefore based not simply on having food available in the market, but on the national system’s capacity to produce, store and transport it, secure its supply and efficiently manage the resources needed for production, ensuring its sustainability for future generations.

Business

Digital Resilience: Saudi Arabia Readies Government Services for Continuity

A citizen captures footage at a conference in Riyadh (SPA)
A citizen captures footage at a conference in Riyadh (SPA)
TT
TT

Digital Resilience: Saudi Arabia Readies Government Services for Continuity

A citizen captures footage at a conference in Riyadh (SPA)
A citizen captures footage at a conference in Riyadh (SPA)

A student follows a lesson in a virtual classroom, a patient receives a medical consultation from home and a beneficiary accesses an official document on a mobile phone -snapshots of how digital government services have become part of everyday life in Saudi Arabia.

As access becomes easier, ensuring those services remain available is increasingly important. Education, healthcare and government transactions are daily needs that require readiness to maintain service availability and allow beneficiaries to rely on them when needed.

Amid current political conditions in the region and related security developments, such preparedness has taken on greater importance in supporting the continuity of daily life.

Digital resilience therefore goes beyond simply making services available electronically. It encompasses government entities’ ability to continue providing them and respond to changing needs through risk management and business continuity planning.

What has been achieved?

The Digital Government Authority (DGA) supports this effort through three interconnected services. Those include classifying platforms according to their importance and setting target recovery times for their services; recording digital service availability rates; and regulating outage reporting when required.

According to the DGA’s annual report, these tools help government entities maintain service continuity by establishing priorities, monitoring availability and defining reporting responsibilities.

Alongside these preparedness measures, Saudi Arabia’s Digital Experience Maturity Index reached 87.06% in 2026 following an assessment of 59 platforms. The quality of the digital experience measured by the index and the business continuity governed by regulations and services extend efforts from making platforms easier to use to supporting their ability to keep delivering services.

Risk at the heart of planning

The regulatory approach begins with the Controls of Risk Management and Business Continuity for Digital Government, designed to address risks proactively by establishing a risk management system and continuously improving it.

On business continuity, the controls cover establishing and activating the system, verifying its effectiveness and continuing to develop it.

The requirements embed risk management within the institutional workflow. The task does not end with drawing up a plan but extends to testing its effectiveness and improving it. Preparedness therefore becomes a continuous process tied to how services are managed rather than a measure invoked only in specific circumstances.

Linking risk management with business continuity allows entities to understand what could affect a service, organize preparations to address it, and direct resources and procedures toward priority operations.

Priority and recovery time

At the operational level, the Government Platforms and Applications Classification Service allows entities to classify their platforms and applications and set target recovery times for digital services according to their importance and the impact of any disruption.

This makes the nature and impact of a service the basis for determining priorities, rather than treating all platforms as having identical continuity requirements. A target recovery time is then assigned to define what continuity arrangements should achieve.

The approach shifts planning from a general discussion of preparedness toward requirements tied to specific services and their importance.

Monitoring availability

While classification establishes priorities, the Service Availability Rate allows government entities to record the availability rates of digital services provided to beneficiaries to monitor compliance.

When reporting is required, the Reporting Digital Government Services Disruption Service provides government entities with a defined process. It begins with the entity’s information technology chief appointing a crisis team responsible for submitting reports.

The three functions are therefore interconnected: classification establishes importance and target recovery times, availability records provide monitoring data, and outage reporting defines the communication channel and who is responsible for it. Together, they organize service continuity from planning and monitoring through to handling incidents requiring notification.

Guidance for implementation

These tools are supported by guidance documents, including the Guideline of Risk and Business Continuity Management for Digital Government and guidance on combating digital fraud.

The first supports government entities in applying relevant regulatory requirements and improving practices that underpin services to beneficiaries, providing a reference to help translate requirements into implementation.

Digital fraud guidance adds another dimension related to the security of transactions by supporting a risk-management methodology and national efforts to curb digital fraud.

Continuous access and reliable use are complementary needs. The first concerns keeping a service available, while the second concerns safeguarding transactions carried out through it.

Readiness centered on people

These measures give digital resilience a practical meaning: classification linking preparedness to the importance of a service, data for monitoring availability, clearly assigned reporting responsibilities, and controls and guidance supporting implementation.

Though regulatory and operational in nature, their impact is directly connected to people’s ability to manage their daily lives. For the student in a virtual classroom, the patient receiving a consultation and the beneficiary retrieving an official document, the objective is clear: ease of access must be matched by readiness to keep the service running.

Trust in digital government begins with the user experience but rests on the planning and monitoring behind it, keeping people’s needs at the heart of preparedness as daily life increasingly moves online.