UK Inflation Slows to Near Three-year Low

A general view shows Palace of Westminster, home to the Houses of Parliament, and the Elizabeth Tower, commonly known by the name of the bell "Big Ben", in London on June 15, 2023. (Photo by Daniel LEAL / AFP)
A general view shows Palace of Westminster, home to the Houses of Parliament, and the Elizabeth Tower, commonly known by the name of the bell "Big Ben", in London on June 15, 2023. (Photo by Daniel LEAL / AFP)
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UK Inflation Slows to Near Three-year Low

A general view shows Palace of Westminster, home to the Houses of Parliament, and the Elizabeth Tower, commonly known by the name of the bell "Big Ben", in London on June 15, 2023. (Photo by Daniel LEAL / AFP)
A general view shows Palace of Westminster, home to the Houses of Parliament, and the Elizabeth Tower, commonly known by the name of the bell "Big Ben", in London on June 15, 2023. (Photo by Daniel LEAL / AFP)

Britain's annual inflation rate slowed to a near three-year low in April as energy prices cooled further, official data showed Wednesday, boosting the governing Conservatives before this year's general election.

The Consumer Prices Index slowed to 2.3 percent from 3.2 percent in March, the Office for National Statistics revealed in a statement, though it was still faster than the 2.1 percent analysts were expecting.

April marked the lowest level since July 2021, when inflation had stood at the Bank of England's 2.0-percent target.

The news comes after the British central bank this month signalled a summer interest rate cut, as it held borrowing costs at a 16-year peak of 5.25 percent to further dampen price rises.

Following the inflation data, most analysts said a rate reduction was unlikely to occur as soon as June, when the European Central Bank is forecast to decrease eurozone borrowing costs, AFP reported.

The Federal Reserve is also expected to cut US interest rates this year as global inflationary pressures subside.

Sharply lower inflation sets the scene for this year's general election, as beleaguered Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservatives trail the main opposition Labor Party in opinion polls.

"Today marks a major moment for the economy, with inflation back to normal. This is proof that the plan is working and that the difficult decisions we have taken are paying off," insisted Sunak, who has made cutting inflation a top priority.

However, Labor finance spokesperson Rachel Reeves slammed the Tories' stewardship of the economy, which emerged in the first quarter from a shallow recession.

"Inflation has fallen but now is not the time for Conservative ministers to be popping champagne corks. Prices have soared, mortgages bills have risen and taxes are at a seventy year high," Reeves argued.

Prices are still rising on top of the sharp increases seen in recent years but at a far slower rate, with businesses and households weathering a cost-of-living crisis.

That has been worsened by elevated BoE interest rates which ramp up the cost of loans, denting disposable incomes and company investment, thereby crimping economic activity.

 



Germany's Coalition in Impasse Over 2025 Budget

FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner (L), Greens Economy Minister Robert Habeck (C) and Chancellor Olaf Scholz (R) of the SPD are locked in a budget dispute - AFP
FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner (L), Greens Economy Minister Robert Habeck (C) and Chancellor Olaf Scholz (R) of the SPD are locked in a budget dispute - AFP
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Germany's Coalition in Impasse Over 2025 Budget

FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner (L), Greens Economy Minister Robert Habeck (C) and Chancellor Olaf Scholz (R) of the SPD are locked in a budget dispute - AFP
FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner (L), Greens Economy Minister Robert Habeck (C) and Chancellor Olaf Scholz (R) of the SPD are locked in a budget dispute - AFP

The three parties in the German government are locked in a bitter dispute over the 2025 budget, with experts warning the stalemate could be the final straw for the uneasy coalition.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the liberal FDP, who came to power in 2021, have until July 3, the end of the current parliamentary term, to reach a compromise, AFP reported.

FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner, a fiscal hawk, is demanding close to 30 billion euros ($32 billion) in savings -- which the Greens and SPD have baulked at.

The coalition has faced many rows in the past but some pundits believe this could be the one that finally blows the government apart.

"These talks will decide the coalition's continued presence in office," said the Sueddeutsche Zeitung daily this week.

While budget discussions have been difficult before, they have never lasted this long.

"It's much more difficult than usual," Jacques-Pierre Gougeon, an expert on German politics at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs, told AFP.

He pointed to a gloomy backdrop due to Germany's poor performance in recent times, with Europe's biggest economy hit hard by high inflation and a manufacturing slowdown.

According to the finance ministry, tax revenues for 2025 are set to be 11 billion euros lower than originally forecast.

A ruling by the country's top court in November that the coalition had contravened the constitutionally enshrined "debt brake", a self-imposed cap on annual borrowing, has also limited room for new spending.

In addition, all three parties are increasingly worried about their own levels of support after doing badly at this month's EU elections -- in which the opposition conservative CDU-CSU bloc came first, with the far-right AfD second.

A key sticking point in discussions centres on unemployment benefits.

Lindner wants to restrict the current payouts, which he believes are too expensive and do not provide enough of an incentive to get people to return to work.

But the SPD won't accept this. Improving benefits was central to the party's 2021 election campaign as they sought to win back support of lower-income voters.

"Politically, the Social Democrats cannot afford to give it up," said Gougeon.

There is also disagreement about any measures affecting diplomacy and defence, at a time when Germany is seeking to stand up for liberal, European values and overhaul its creaking military in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Defence Minister Boris Pistorius is calling for an increase in his ministry's budget, and for military spending not to be covered by the debt brake.

"It would be disastrous to have to say in a few years' time: we saved the debt brake at the expense of Ukraine and the European security order," said Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, from the Greens.

While calls have grown for the debt rules to be relaxed, Lindner and the FDP categorically refuse to countenance any changes.

Maintaining the brake is an "existential question" for the party, according to Gougeon.

Lindner did however promise on Wednesday not to push for any savings in defence.

Scholz, Lindner and Economy Minister Robert Habeck, from the Greens, are due to meet Sunday in an attempt to make progress.

The aim is to prevent "the budget crisis from turning into a crisis of confidence", which could lead to new elections, according to the left-leaning daily TAZ.

The parties may ultimately compromise as the alternative -- a collapse of the government -- will not be in their favour.

They "know that they would be swept aside if there were new elections, and will want to avoid them", said Gougeon.