Maritime Disruptions Cast Shadow on Global Energy Security

A container ship passing through the Suez Canal (Suez Canal Official Website)
A container ship passing through the Suez Canal (Suez Canal Official Website)
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Maritime Disruptions Cast Shadow on Global Energy Security

A container ship passing through the Suez Canal (Suez Canal Official Website)
A container ship passing through the Suez Canal (Suez Canal Official Website)

As the world focuses on the Red Sea due to rising attacks on passing ships, experts warn of growing threats to the region's shipping lanes, which could impact global energy security.

Some link the disruptions to regional geopolitical changes, while others believe they are part of a planned strategy due to the area’s natural resources.

Recently, a commercial ship off Yemen’s coast issued a distress call after a missile attack.

This incident coincided with the first international conference on energy security through maritime safety kicking off in Cairo, organized by the Saif Bin Helal Center for Studies and Research in Energy Sciences.

The conference stressed that secure waterways are essential for energy exports and development.

“The region is unstable. Geostrategic, economic, and security challenges are mounting,” warned former Arab League Secretary-General and Egyptian Foreign Minister Amr Moussa at the opening of the conference.

“Disruptions in maritime routes threaten the stability, sovereignty, and wealth of nations. These are broad challenges, not just Red Sea issues—they’re reshaping global interests,” he added.

With this warning, he highlighted the ongoing turmoil in the Suez Canal, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Black Sea.

Moussa also warned about the risks of alternative routes being studied by various countries.

“These routes will serve specific national interests, not the security of international trade,” he cautioned.

On his part, Former Egyptian Petroleum Minister Osama Kamal stressed the vital role of the region’s waterways, especially with Gulf nations being major energy players worldwide.

He pointed out that without energy, there can be no development.

As the conference continued, British security firm Ambrey reported that a merchant vessel off the Yemeni coast took on water and tilted to one side after being targeted with three missiles.

The vessel issued a distress call stating it had sustained damage to the cargo hold and was taking on water approximately 54 nautical miles southwest of Yemen’s Hodeidah, Ambrey added.



OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters
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OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters

OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth this year and next on Tuesday, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions, marking the producer group's fourth consecutive downward revision in the 2024 outlook.

The weaker outlook highlights the challenge facing OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, which earlier this month postponed a plan to start raising output in December against a backdrop of falling prices.

In a monthly report on Tuesday, OPEC said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd forecast last month. Until August, OPEC had kept the outlook unchanged since its first forecast in July 2023.

In the report, OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd, Reuters.

China accounted for the bulk of the 2024 downgrade. OPEC trimmed its Chinese growth forecast to 450,000 bpd from 580,000 bpd and said diesel use in September fell year-on-year for a seventh consecutive month.

"Diesel has been under pressure from a slowdown in construction amid weak manufacturing activity, combined with the ongoing deployment of LNG-fuelled trucks," OPEC said with reference to China.

Oil pared gains after the report was issued, with Brent crude trading below $73 a barrel.

Forecasts on the strength of demand growth in 2024 vary widely, partly due to differences over demand from China and the pace of the world's switch to cleaner fuels.

OPEC is still at the top of industry estimates and has a long way to go to match the International Energy Agency's far lower view.

The IEA, which represents industrialised countries, sees demand growth of 860,000 bpd in 2024. The agency is scheduled to update its figures on Thursday.

- OUTPUT RISES

OPEC+ has implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support prices, most of which are in place until the end of 2025.

The group was to start unwinding the most recent layer of cuts of 2.2 million bpd from December but said on Nov. 3 it will delay the plan for a month, as weak demand and rising supply outside the group maintain downward pressure on the market.

OPEC's output is also rising, the report showed, with Libyan production rebounding after being cut by unrest. OPEC+ pumped 40.34 million bpd in October, up 215,000 bpd from September. Iraq cut output to 4.07 million bpd, closer to its 4 million bpd quota.

As well as Iraq, OPEC has named Russia and Kazakhstan as among the OPEC+ countries which pumped above quotas.

Russia's output edged up in October by 9,000 bpd to about 9.01 million bpd, OPEC said, slightly above its quota.