World Bank Says 1.8 Mln Additional Ukrainians in Poverty

FILE PHOTO: People queue for meals from World Central Kitchen food truck on a street in Kherson, Ukraine February 22, 2023. REUTERS/Lisi Niesner/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: People queue for meals from World Central Kitchen food truck on a street in Kherson, Ukraine February 22, 2023. REUTERS/Lisi Niesner/File Photo
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World Bank Says 1.8 Mln Additional Ukrainians in Poverty

FILE PHOTO: People queue for meals from World Central Kitchen food truck on a street in Kherson, Ukraine February 22, 2023. REUTERS/Lisi Niesner/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: People queue for meals from World Central Kitchen food truck on a street in Kherson, Ukraine February 22, 2023. REUTERS/Lisi Niesner/File Photo

The number of Ukrainians living in poverty has grown by 1.8 million since 2020, bringing the total to about 29% of the population as Russia's 2022 invasion continues to ravage the country's economy, the World Bank said in a report.
The situation would be much worse if Ukraine had not received substantial foreign budget support to pay old-age pensions and salaries for teachers, doctors and others, according to Arup Banerji, the World Bank's regional director for Eastern Europe.
"If international partners, especially the US, had not crowded in resources specifically tailored to these social expenditures, then there would have been three million more people in poverty," he told Reuters in an interview.
The World Bank report, based on monthly phone surveys of up to 2,000 households, estimated that some 9 million Ukrainians were living in poverty last year. The country's total population is now estimated to be around 32 million.
The increase in poverty was driven by declining employment, with more than a fifth of adults who were working before the war having lost their jobs, it said.
It noted that nearly one-quarter of Ukrainians surveyed did not have enough money to buy food at some point in June 2023, although a rebound in economic growth and slowing inflation had helped to improve food security in the second half of the year.
Banerji said US passage of fresh Ukraine funding after months of delay was "fantastic" news which would help ensure Ukraine's continued ability to keep up payments for salaries, pensions and social assistance.
The report showed that 85-92% of health clinics in Ukraine were still fully operational in 2023, despite ongoing Russian attacks.
It said at least 89% of children aged 6-18 also remained in school, although in areas facing active hostilities 72% of those students were attending school online.
The survey also showed that 97% of old-age pensions and 85% social assistance transfers were paid on time, a key factor in preventing even more from falling into poverty. Pensions and other social assistance had helped compensate for job losses in vulnerable households, it found.
Banerji said Ukraine's biggest challenge remained security and ending the war, but Ukrainian officials had done a great job running the economy under the circumstances.
"There can be no economic prosperity or economic growth without physical security," he said, adding, "But I've never seen a government that has done so much with so little."



OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters
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OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters

OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth this year and next on Tuesday, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions, marking the producer group's fourth consecutive downward revision in the 2024 outlook.

The weaker outlook highlights the challenge facing OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, which earlier this month postponed a plan to start raising output in December against a backdrop of falling prices.

In a monthly report on Tuesday, OPEC said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd forecast last month. Until August, OPEC had kept the outlook unchanged since its first forecast in July 2023.

In the report, OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd, Reuters.

China accounted for the bulk of the 2024 downgrade. OPEC trimmed its Chinese growth forecast to 450,000 bpd from 580,000 bpd and said diesel use in September fell year-on-year for a seventh consecutive month.

"Diesel has been under pressure from a slowdown in construction amid weak manufacturing activity, combined with the ongoing deployment of LNG-fuelled trucks," OPEC said with reference to China.

Oil pared gains after the report was issued, with Brent crude trading below $73 a barrel.

Forecasts on the strength of demand growth in 2024 vary widely, partly due to differences over demand from China and the pace of the world's switch to cleaner fuels.

OPEC is still at the top of industry estimates and has a long way to go to match the International Energy Agency's far lower view.

The IEA, which represents industrialised countries, sees demand growth of 860,000 bpd in 2024. The agency is scheduled to update its figures on Thursday.

- OUTPUT RISES

OPEC+ has implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support prices, most of which are in place until the end of 2025.

The group was to start unwinding the most recent layer of cuts of 2.2 million bpd from December but said on Nov. 3 it will delay the plan for a month, as weak demand and rising supply outside the group maintain downward pressure on the market.

OPEC's output is also rising, the report showed, with Libyan production rebounding after being cut by unrest. OPEC+ pumped 40.34 million bpd in October, up 215,000 bpd from September. Iraq cut output to 4.07 million bpd, closer to its 4 million bpd quota.

As well as Iraq, OPEC has named Russia and Kazakhstan as among the OPEC+ countries which pumped above quotas.

Russia's output edged up in October by 9,000 bpd to about 9.01 million bpd, OPEC said, slightly above its quota.