Euro Zone Business Growth Slowed Sharply in June

A worker at German manufacturer of silos and liquid tankers, Feldbinder Special Vehicles, welds aluminium at the company's plant in Winsen, Germany, July 10, 2018. REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer/ File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
A worker at German manufacturer of silos and liquid tankers, Feldbinder Special Vehicles, welds aluminium at the company's plant in Winsen, Germany, July 10, 2018. REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer/ File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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Euro Zone Business Growth Slowed Sharply in June

A worker at German manufacturer of silos and liquid tankers, Feldbinder Special Vehicles, welds aluminium at the company's plant in Winsen, Germany, July 10, 2018. REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer/ File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
A worker at German manufacturer of silos and liquid tankers, Feldbinder Special Vehicles, welds aluminium at the company's plant in Winsen, Germany, July 10, 2018. REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer/ File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

 

Overall business growth across the euro zone slowed sharply last month as a solid expansion in the bloc's dominant services industry failed to offset a further deterioration in manufacturing, a survey showed on Wednesday, Reuters reported.

HCOB's composite Purchasing Managers' Index for the currency union, compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, dropped to 50.9 in June from May's 12-month high of 52.2.

It was just above a preliminary 50.8 estimate and the fourth consecutive month above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction.

"Growth in the euro zone can be attributed fully to the service sector. While the manufacturing sector weakened considerably in June, activity growth in the services sector continued to be nearly as robust as the month before," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank.

The services PMI dipped to 52.8 last month from 53.2 but was ahead of the 52.6 flash estimate.

Manufacturing activity across the bloc took a turn for the worse last month as demand fell at a much faster pace despite factories cutting their prices, a sister survey showed on Monday.

Falling demand for manufactured goods, alongside slower growth for services, meant the composite new business index slumped below breakeven for the first time since February, registering 49.4 compared to May's 51.6. The flash reading was 49.2.

That was despite the European Central Bank delivering a widely predicted cut to interest rates last month. It is expected to cut again in September and December, according to a Reuters poll.

Strong wage data and still sticky price pressures have increased uncertainties around the rationale for more cuts but both input and output cost pressures eased, according to the PMI.

Charges levied by services firms rose at the slowest pace in over three years. The output prices index fell to 53.5 from 54.2.

"The ECB ... is getting some support for this decision from the HCOB Services PMI price indices," de la Rubia added.

"Looking forward, the ECB will remain cautious, as the price increases are still way above pre-pandemic averages and still unusually high given the fragile state of the economy."



US Job Growth Surges in September, Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.1%

A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
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US Job Growth Surges in September, Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.1%

A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo

US job growth accelerated in September and the unemployment slipped to 4.1%, further reducing the need for the Federal Reserve to maintain large interest rate cuts at its remaining two meetings this year.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000 jobs last month after rising by an upwardly revised 159,000 in August, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising by 140,000 positions after advancing by a previously reported 142,000 in August.
The initial payrolls count for August has typically been revised higher over the past decade. Estimates for September's job gains ranged from 70,000 to 220,000.
The US labor market slowdown is being driven by tepid hiring against the backdrop of increased labor supply stemming mostly from a rise in immigration. Layoffs have remained low, which is underpinning the economy through solid consumer spending.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% after gaining 0.5% in August. Wages increased 4% year-on-year after climbing 3.9% in August.
The US unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% in August. It has jumped from 3.4% in April 2023, in part boosted by the 16-24 age cohort and rise in temporary layoffs during the annual automobile plant shutdowns in July.
The US Federal Reserve's policy setting committee kicked off its policy easing cycle with an unusually large half-percentage-point rate cut last month and Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized growing concerns over the health of the labor market.
While the labor market has taken a step back, annual benchmark revisions to national accounts data last week showed the economy in a much better shape than previously estimated, with upgrades to growth, income, savings and corporate profits.
This improved economic backdrop was acknowledged by Powell this week when he pushed back against investors' expectations for another half-percentage-point rate cut in November, saying “this is not a committee that feels like it is in a hurry to cut rates quickly.”
The Fed hiked rates by 525 basis points in 2022 and 2023, and delivered its first rate cut since 2020 last month. Its policy rate is currently set in the 4.75%-5.00% band.
Early on Friday, financial markets saw a roughly 71.5% chance of a quarter-point rate reduction in November, CME's FedWatch tool showed. The odds of a 50 basis points cut were around 28.5%.