China Stops Short of Africa Debt Relief as Pledges More Cash

People pass by signage for the Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, China, 01 September 2024. (EPA)
People pass by signage for the Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, China, 01 September 2024. (EPA)
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China Stops Short of Africa Debt Relief as Pledges More Cash

People pass by signage for the Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, China, 01 September 2024. (EPA)
People pass by signage for the Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, China, 01 September 2024. (EPA)

China stopped short of providing the debt relief sought by many African countries this week, but pledged 360 billion yuan ($50.7 billion) over three years in credit lines and investments.
The Forum for China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) launched in 2000 took on an enhanced role after the 2013 inception of President Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to recreate the ancient Silk Road for the world's second largest economy and biggest bilateral lender to Africa, Reuters said.
"China is moving back on to the front foot in terms of overseas deployment of capital in the emerging markets," said Tellimer's Hasnain Malik, while adding it was not yet at pre-COVID levels.
China has also sought to use FOCAC to counter growing competition in Africa from the United States, the European Union, Japan and others.
In Beijing, diplomats and delegates from around the world mingled in the Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square as leaders from more than 50 African countries and Chinese officials led by Xi gathered for a group photo.
The new financial pledge is more than what Beijing promised at the last FOCAC in 2021, but below the $60 billion of 2015 and 2018, which marked the peak of lending to Africa under the Belt and Road Initiative.
During those peak years, Beijing bankrolled the construction of roads, railways and bridges. But a drying up of funds since 2019 has left Africa with stalled construction projects.
The new funds will go towards 30 infrastructure projects to improve trade links, China said, without giving details.
The 54-nation continent of more than 1 billion people has an annual infrastructure funding deficit estimated at $100 billion, and needs transport links to make a new giant pan-African trade bloc (AfCFTA) a reality.
Beijing has in recent years cut funding for such projects as it shifted focus to "small and beautiful" projects, mainly due to its own domestic economic pressures and an increase in debt risks among African countries.
Asked how the new commitments fit into China's current cautious overseas lending strategy, a foreign ministry spokesperson said there was no contradiction.
"The cooperation between China and African countries, including the specific implementation of projects, is discussed and determined by both sides," Mao Ning, a foreign ministry spokesperson told a regular news conference on Friday.
CURRENCY SWAPS
China also said it will launch 30 clean energy projects in Africa, offer co-operation on nuclear technology and tackle a power deficit that has delayed industrialisation efforts.
"The outcomes of the FOCAC summit signal an impetus for green projects and especially for renewable energy installations," said Goolam Ballim, head of research at South Africa's Standard Bank.
China has become a global leader in wind and solar energy, Ballim said, controlling significant supply chains and reducing production costs.
Others were skeptical.
"The issue is not so much about the size of the investments, it's been about the lack of transparency around the terms of the debt," said Trang Nguyen, global head of emerging markets credit strategy at French bank BNP Paribas.
Success was less clear-cut for countries owing a large share of their debt to China, which made no express offer of assistance to those struggling with repayments.
Beijing instead urged other creditors "to participate in the handling and restructuring of African countries' debts under the principle of joint actions and fair burden-sharing".
African leaders hoping to bask in large deals for their countries had to settle for less splashy announcements.
Ethiopia and Mauritius announced new currency swap lines with China's central bank. Kenya said it made progress on talks to reopen the lending taps for key projects like its modern railway to link the region.
Still, there was optimism from some, as they welcomed China's increased commitments to Africa's security, humanitarian challenges and other non-financial affairs.
"After nearly 70 years of hard work, China-Africa relations are at their best in history," Tanzania's President Samia Suluhu said on her X account.



Economists Warn of Global Trade Risks from Israel-Iran Conflict

Rescue workers at site hit by Israeli airstrikes in Tehran (Reuters)
Rescue workers at site hit by Israeli airstrikes in Tehran (Reuters)
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Economists Warn of Global Trade Risks from Israel-Iran Conflict

Rescue workers at site hit by Israeli airstrikes in Tehran (Reuters)
Rescue workers at site hit by Israeli airstrikes in Tehran (Reuters)

Economic experts have warned that a protracted conflict between Israel and Iran could have far-reaching repercussions on the global economy, driving up energy prices and disrupting key sectors including aviation, insurance, trade, and maritime navigation.

 

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Saudi Shura Council member Fadl Al-Buainain said the ongoing military confrontation is already impacting global energy markets, with oil prices spiking to multi-month highs in the immediate aftermath of the outbreak.

 

He warned that continued Iranian threats to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz could further fuel the surge in energy prices. “Such an act would be hostile, not only to Gulf nations but also to global consumers, compounding the challenges already facing the world economy”, Al-Buainain said.

 

He stressed that the energy sector is particularly vulnerable to military escalations. “Any disruption to oil production or exports from major producers could send oil and gas prices skyrocketing, with direct consequences for global economic stability”, he said.

 

While current military actions have had limited impact on output and exports, Al-Buainain cautioned that any direct strikes on energy infrastructure could push oil prices above $100 per barrel, depending on how badly global supply chains are hit.

 

The conflict has already disrupted international flight routes and increased operational costs for airlines, he said, while surging risk premiums have driven up insurance costs across the region. Maritime trade and shipping lanes are also at risk of direct disruption.

 

Al-Buainain noted that the fallout will vary across the region. He pointed out that Saudi Arabia, thanks to its strategic location and Red Sea ports, is better positioned to maintain the flow of trade. The kingdom also benefits from pipelines that transport oil from the east to the west, partially shielding its exports from Gulf disruptions.

 

He described energy as the “real engine” of the global economy and said it, along with foreign trade, will bear the brunt of the economic impact. "But the human cost and developmental setbacks caused by war are far worse”, he added.

 

Al-Buainain warned that prospects for a swift diplomatic resolution are diminishing. “Starting wars is easier than ending them,” he said, adding that an Iranian move to shut down Hormuz, while difficult in practice, could spark a direct confrontation with global powers, particularly the United States. “If American interests are attacked, Washington could be drawn into the conflict, which risks expanding beyond control”.

 

Khaled Ramadan, head of the Cairo-based International Center for Strategic Studies, said Israel’s strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, including the Abadan refinery, which has a capacity of 700,000 barrels per day, could severely reduce oil and gas supplies if the conflict drags on.

 

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that Brent crude had already risen 8–13% following the escalation, crossing $78 per barrel. “Should the Strait of Hormuz be closed, we could see oil prices surge to record levels”, he warned.

 

Ramadan said the conflict could also disrupt global supply chains, especially through Hormuz, affecting non-oil goods such as electronics and food. Shipping and insurance costs would rise, leading to higher consumer prices and a slowdown in global trade.

 

Food staples such as wheat and corn, along with petrochemicals, garments, electronics, auto parts, and pharmaceuticals are all likely to see price increases, he said, citing higher energy and transport costs as well as declining market confidence.

 

Ramadan added that the economic fallout includes rising inflation, weakening currencies, and a drop in investment — particularly in tourism and tech.

 

“The Iranian rial and Israeli shekel have already hit their lowest levels this year,” he noted, adding that the war could reshape global energy alliances, with Europe increasingly seeking alternative suppliers.