IMF: Middle East Conflict Escalation Could Have Significant Economic Consequences

Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
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IMF: Middle East Conflict Escalation Could Have Significant Economic Consequences

Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki
Displaced families, mainly from Syria, gather at Beirut's central Martyrs' Square, where they spent the night fleeing the overnight Israeli strikes in Beirut, Lebanon September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could have significant economic ramifications for the region and the global economy, but commodity prices remain below the highs of the past year.

IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack told a regular news briefing that the Fund is closely monitoring the situation in southern Lebanon with "grave concern" and offered condolences for the loss of life.

"The potential for further escalation of the conflict heightens risks and uncertainty and could have significant economic ramifications for the region and beyond," Kozack said.

According to Reuters, she said it was too early to predict specific impacts on the global economy, but noted that economies in the region have already suffered greatly, especially in Gaza, where the civilian population "faces dire socioeconomic conditions, a humanitarian crisis and insufficient aid deliveries.

The IMF estimates that Gaza's GDP declined 86% in the first half of 2024, Kozack said, while the West Bank's first-half GDP likely declined 25%, with prospects of a further deterioration.

Israel's GDP contracted by about 20% in the fourth quarter of 2023 after the conflict began, and the country has seen only a partial recovery in the first half of 2024, she added.
The IMF will update its economic projections for all countries and the global economy later in October when the global lender and World Bank hold their fall meetings in Washington.
"In Lebanon, the recent intensification of the conflict is exacerbating the country's already fragile macroeconomic and social situation," Kozack said, referring to Israel's airstrikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
"The conflict has inflicted a heavy human toll on the country, and it has damaged physical infrastructure."
The main channels for the conflict to impact the global economy have been through higher commodity prices, including oil and grains, as well as increased shipping costs, as vessels avoid potential missile attacks by Yemen's Houthis on vessels in the Red Sea, Kozack said. But commodity prices are currently lower than their peaks in the past year.
"I just emphasize once again that we're closely monitoring the situation, and this is a situation of great concern and very high uncertainty," she added.
Lebanon in 2022 reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF on a potential loan program, but there has been insufficient progress on required reforms, Kozack said.
"We are prepared to engage with Lebanon on a possible financing program when the situation is appropriate to do so, but it would necessitate that the actions can be taken and decisive policy measures can be taken," Kozack added. "We are currently supporting Lebanon through capacity development assistance and other areas where possible."
 

 

 

 



Saudi Arabia Boosts Food Security

An agricultural farm in Saudi Arabia (SPA)
An agricultural farm in Saudi Arabia (SPA)
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Saudi Arabia Boosts Food Security

An agricultural farm in Saudi Arabia (SPA)
An agricultural farm in Saudi Arabia (SPA)

Saudi Arabia is accelerating efforts to strengthen food security, a strategic objective rooted in the Kingdom’s founding and shaped by its desert geography and limited water resources.

As part of its Vision 2030, the Kingdom has placed food security among its top priorities, implementing a national strategy to boost local production and promote long-term agricultural sustainability.

The agricultural sector’s contribution to GDP rose to SAR114 billion ($30.4 billion) in 2024, up from SAR109 billion ($29 billion) the previous year, according to the latest Vision 2030 annual report.

Government support, particularly through the Agricultural Development Fund, has fueled the sector’s growth. Agricultural loans increased by 54% between 2018 and 2024, reaching SAR5 billion ($1.33 billion).

Saudi Arabia has achieved higher self-sufficiency rates across several key products. Domestic production in 2024 included 2.95 million tons of fruit, 3.38 million tons of vegetables, 1.83 million tons of grains, 399,000 tons of eggs, 2.7 million tons of milk, 274,000 tons of red meat, 1.15 million tons of poultry, 217,000 tons of fish, and 8,500 tons of honey.

Aquaculture has seen significant growth, with fish production rising from 40,000 tons in 2016 to over 246,000 tons in 2024, driven by investments in sustainable technologies and marine projects. Saudi Arabia is positioning itself as an emerging regional hub for aquaculture.

The Kingdom’s progress reflects its long-term commitment to food security, supported by initiatives to enhance supply chains, stimulate private sector investment, and advance research and innovation in modern farming technologies. Authorities say the achievements so far signal Saudi Arabia’s ability to continue advancing toward self-sufficiency in a more resilient and sustainable agricultural environment.