Geopolitical Strife Could Cost Global Economy $14.5 Trln Over 5 Years

09 October 2024, Palestinian Territories, Gaza City: A general view of buildings damaged by Israeli strikes. Photo: Mahmoud Issa/Quds Net News via ZUMA Press/dpa
09 October 2024, Palestinian Territories, Gaza City: A general view of buildings damaged by Israeli strikes. Photo: Mahmoud Issa/Quds Net News via ZUMA Press/dpa
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Geopolitical Strife Could Cost Global Economy $14.5 Trln Over 5 Years

09 October 2024, Palestinian Territories, Gaza City: A general view of buildings damaged by Israeli strikes. Photo: Mahmoud Issa/Quds Net News via ZUMA Press/dpa
09 October 2024, Palestinian Territories, Gaza City: A general view of buildings damaged by Israeli strikes. Photo: Mahmoud Issa/Quds Net News via ZUMA Press/dpa

The global economy could face losses of $14.5 trillion over a five-year period from a hypothetical geopolitical conflict which hits supply chains, insurance market Lloyd's of London said on Wednesday.

The economic impact would result from severe damage to infrastructure in the conflict region and the potential for compromised shipping lanes, Lloyd's said in a statement.

Wars in Ukraine and Gaza have already disturbed shipping routes in the Black Sea and Red Sea.

"With more than 80% of the world's imports and exports – around 11 billion tons of goods – at sea at any given time, the closure of major trade routes due to a geopolitical conflict is one of the greatest threats to the resources needed for a resilient economy," Lloyd's said.

The possibility of such a geopolitical conflict was a systemic - or low likelihood but high impact - risk, Lloyd's said.

Lloyd's said it has also researched other potential systemic risks in partnership with the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, including cyber attacks and extreme weather events.



COP 16 Launches Monday in Riyadh: Advancing a World Free of Desertification

Riyadh is hosting this Monday the 16th Conference of the Parties (COP 16). (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Riyadh is hosting this Monday the 16th Conference of the Parties (COP 16). (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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COP 16 Launches Monday in Riyadh: Advancing a World Free of Desertification

Riyadh is hosting this Monday the 16th Conference of the Parties (COP 16). (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Riyadh is hosting this Monday the 16th Conference of the Parties (COP 16). (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Global attention turns to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, as it hosts the 16th Conference of the Parties (COP 16) under the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). The event seeks to address environmental challenges threatening the planet, intensify efforts to combat land degradation, and reduce the impact of drought.
From December 2 to 13, Riyadh will host representatives from 197 countries, signatories to the UNCCD, to collaborate on effective solutions for rehabilitating millions of hectares of degraded land and building resilience against drought. The conference aims to support policymakers while engaging the private sector and civil society in protecting the environment and conserving natural resources.
COP 16 is the largest meeting in the history of the UNCCD and the first to be held in the Middle East. It also represents Saudi Arabia’s largest-ever multilateral conference and coincides with the 30th anniversary of the UNCCD, established alongside the Rio Conventions on climate change and biodiversity in 1992.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres highlighted the significance of COP 16 as a potential turning point, renewing global commitment to accelerating investments in land restoration and drought resilience. He described it as the largest UN conference on land to date and a landmark event for the Middle East and North Africa.
Saudi Arabia is a key supporter of global environmental efforts. The Crown Prince’s Saudi Green Initiative aims to rehabilitate 49 billion square meters of land. This initiative has gained regional and international support, with Gulf nations already undertaking reforestation and coastal protection projects.
The Conference Program
The conference features an innovative dual-track approach, combining formal negotiations with an action-oriented agenda, according to the COP 16 presidency. This approach aims to address urgent global crises, including desertification, land degradation, and drought, through practical and implementable decisions.
The action agenda will focus on showcasing voluntary initiatives, innovative solutions, and discussions on key topics such as artificial intelligence, sustainable land management, and the social and economic impacts of land degradation. High-level ministerial sessions will explore critical issues, including drought resilience, financing, and the relationship between land degradation, forced migration, and security.
Dr. Osama Faqeeha, Deputy Minister for Environment and advisor to COP 16, emphasized the pivotal role of the conference in tackling global challenges related to land degradation and drought. He noted that Saudi Arabia has introduced the first-ever Green Zone in COP history. This zone aims to engage scientists, businesses, financial institutions, NGOs, and the public in collaborative efforts to drive lasting change.
The COP 16 agenda includes thematic days to focus discussions and accelerate outcomes: December 4: Earth Day, December 5: Food Systems Day, December 6: Governance Day, December 7: Peoples’ Day, December 9: Science, Technology, and Innovation Day, December 10: Capacity Building Day, and December 11: Finance Day.
Saudi Green Initiative Forum
In parallel with COP 16, Riyadh will host the 4th annual Saudi Green Initiative Forum on December 3–4 under the theme “Inspired by Nature”. The forum will gather policymakers, business leaders, and experts from around the world to share best practices, explore innovative solutions, and review progress toward the initiative’s sustainability goals.
Land degradation currently affects approximately 40% of the Earth’s surface, impacting the lives of 3.2 billion people worldwide, according to the UNCCD. Each year, nearly 100 million hectares of land deteriorate, while drought intensity and frequency have risen by one-third since 2000.
Despite the urgent need for action, restoration and resilience efforts remain significantly underfunded. COP 16 aims to prioritize mobilizing public and private financing to accelerate land restoration and enhance global resilience, building a sustainable future for both people and the planet.