The Taiwan Strait: Crucial Waterway and Military Flashpoint

This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)
This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)
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The Taiwan Strait: Crucial Waterway and Military Flashpoint

This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)
This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)

China launched fighter jets and other aircraft over the Taiwan Strait on Monday as part of military drills aimed at sending a "warning" to the self-ruled island.

Here, AFP looks at the critical waterway and growing military flashpoint:

- Where is the Taiwan Strait? -

The strait separates the southeastern Chinese province of Fujian from the main island of Taiwan, home to around 23 million people.

At its narrowest point, just 130 kilometers (about 80 miles) of windswept water separates the two major landmasses, and several outlying Taiwanese islands -- including Kinmen and Matsu -- lie just a few kilometers from the Chinese coastline.

China and Taiwan have been governed separately since Mao Zedong's communist army won a civil war and sent the opposition nationalist forces fleeing across the strait in 1949.

- Why is it important? -

The strait is a critical artery for global shipping through which a huge volume of trade passes every day.

Around $2.45 trillion of goods -- more than a fifth of global maritime trade -- transited the strait in 2022, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

Taiwan plays an outsized role in the global economy thanks to producing over 90 percent of the world's most advanced computing chips, used in everything from smartphones to cutting-edge military equipment.

Analysts say a Chinese invasion would deal a catastrophic blow to these supply chains.

More minor disruptions, such as a blockade of the island, would cause costly shipping cancellations and diversions that would impact worldwide consumers.

"In the event of a long conflict over Taiwan, financial markets would tank, trade would shrivel, and supply chains would freeze, plunging the global economy into a tailspin," Robert A. Manning, a China expert at Washington's Stimson Center, wrote this year.

A report by the Rhodium Group estimated that a blockade of the island could cost firms dependent on Taiwan's chips $1.6 trillion in revenue annually.

An invasion would also endanger Taiwan's way of life, embodied by its democratic freedoms and boisterous elections.

It would also risk a wider conflict because the United States, while not recognizing Taiwan diplomatically, has an agreement to help the island defend itself.

- What has China announced? -

Beijing said that it had launched military exercises called "Joint Sword-2024B" in areas to the north, south and east of Taiwan.

The armed forces deployed fighter jets, bombers and warships in the strait, and also simulated a rocket strike, state media said.

The military also said it had deployed an aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, to "strike on maritime and ground targets in the waters and airspace to the east" of the island.

The coast guard said four fleets were conducting "inspections" around the Taiwanese mainland and disclosed other patrols near Matsu.

The drills "test the joint operations capabilities of the theater command's troops" while sending a "stern warning to the separatist acts of 'Taiwan Independence' forces", according to Chinese authorities.

Taiwan has condemned the actions as "irrational and provocative", and the US has called them "unwarranted".

- Has this happened before? -

In late May, three days after the inauguration of President Lai Ching-te, China launched Joint Sword-2024A, an apparent precursor to the latest drills.

The Chinese military also held three days of drills encircling Taiwan in April last year in response to Lai's predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, meeting with then US Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

And in 2022, Beijing launched over a week of maneuvers after McCarthy's predecessor, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan.

Several major crises punctuated the preceding decades, most recently in 1995-6, when China conducted missile tests around Taiwan.

It is not yet clear how the drills announced on Monday compare in scale and intensity to those of previous years.



Efforts that Averted the Collapse of the Gaza Ceasefire

Displaced Palestinians arrive in the northern Gaza Strip, following Israel's decision to allow thousands of them to go back for the first time since the early weeks of the 15-month war with Hamas, Monday, Jan. 27, 2025. (AP)
Displaced Palestinians arrive in the northern Gaza Strip, following Israel's decision to allow thousands of them to go back for the first time since the early weeks of the 15-month war with Hamas, Monday, Jan. 27, 2025. (AP)
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Efforts that Averted the Collapse of the Gaza Ceasefire

Displaced Palestinians arrive in the northern Gaza Strip, following Israel's decision to allow thousands of them to go back for the first time since the early weeks of the 15-month war with Hamas, Monday, Jan. 27, 2025. (AP)
Displaced Palestinians arrive in the northern Gaza Strip, following Israel's decision to allow thousands of them to go back for the first time since the early weeks of the 15-month war with Hamas, Monday, Jan. 27, 2025. (AP)

The Gaza truce faced fresh challenges over the last two days as Israel refused to allow displaced Palestinians in southern and central Gaza to return to the north, a key part of the agreement.

Instead, Israel insisted on the release of Israeli captive Arbel Yehoud before permitting any returns, raising concerns the deal could collapse.

The situation worsened after Hamas handed over four Israeli female captives. Hamas demanded mediators pressure Israel to honor its promises, including allowing displaced Palestinians to return.

Israel, however, refused to proceed until Yehoud’s release or guarantees for her return, with a critical deadline looming on Saturday.

Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Yehoud, held by Islamic Jihad and the Popular Resistance Committees, was confirmed alive after coordination with Hamas. However, Israel requested proof of life, a demand rejected by Palestinian factions to avoid giving Israel leverage without concessions.

Hamas took charge of negotiations, insisting that displaced Palestinians return before Yehoud’s release to prevent any potential Israeli deception. Disagreements also arose over Yehuod’s classification.

Hamas argued she was a reserve soldier, requiring 50 Palestinian prisoners to be freed in exchange. Israel claimed she was a civilian, which would reduce the exchange to 30 detainees.

Israel demanded a full list of captives set for release in the first phase. Palestinian factions complied, revealing more living captives than expected, which advanced talks on the return of displaced Palestinians.

To ease tensions, mediators suggested releasing two additional Israeli captives alongside Yehoud. Eventually, the factions agreed to release 30 Palestinian detainees as part of the exchange.

Hamas announced plans to release three more captives on Saturday, showing its ability to negotiate further exchanges.

However, sources warned of potential Israeli attempts to delay or undermine the agreement, especially as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces internal opposition within his government.

Meanwhile, more Palestinian faction leaders arrived in Cairo for talks with Egyptian mediators to prepare for the next phase of negotiations.

This phase will address rebuilding Gaza, governance under Hamas, and other post-war issues, which are expected to be even more challenging.

As tensions remain high, the truce hangs in the balance, with both sides maneuvering to secure their demands while avoiding a collapse of the fragile agreement.