High Demand, Lower Interest Rates Boost Growth in Saudi Arabia’s Real Estate Transactions

Riyadh accounts for about 60% of total real estate deals (Reuters)
Riyadh accounts for about 60% of total real estate deals (Reuters)
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High Demand, Lower Interest Rates Boost Growth in Saudi Arabia’s Real Estate Transactions

Riyadh accounts for about 60% of total real estate deals (Reuters)
Riyadh accounts for about 60% of total real estate deals (Reuters)

High demand for residential units in Saudi Arabia’s major cities, along with a recovery in the real estate market driven by lower interest rates, has boosted the total value of real estate transactions in the Kingdom to $50 billion (SAR 188 billion) during the first nine months of 2024. This marks a 35% increase compared to the same period last year, according to real estate experts who expect this growth to continue in the next quarter and in the coming years.

Data from the Saudi Ministry of Justice revealed that over 162,000 real estate transactions were recorded during this period, with the residential sector accounting for about 86% of the total. The commercial sector made up around 10% of the transactions. The Riyadh region led the way with approximately 60% of the total transactions, valued at $27 billion (SAR 101 billion), followed by the Makkah region with 19%, valued at $11.8 billion (SAR 44.3 billion).

Investor Confidence

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, real estate expert and appraiser Eng. Ahmed Al-Faqih highlighted that the growth in real estate transactions reflects the strong confidence of investors and stakeholders in the resilience and attractiveness of the Saudi real estate market. He noted that this was particularly evident in Riyadh, which accounted for half of the total real estate activity over the past nine months, driven by the government’s launch of several large-scale projects in the capital.

Al-Faqih added that the real estate market’s growth is aligned with the broader investment activity in the country. This growth is supported by increased regulations, governance, and transparency, which have propelled Saudi Arabia to rank 12th globally in the Real Estate Transparency Index, placing it among the top 40 international markets in terms of transparency.

A report from global real estate consultancy Knight Frank noted that the total value of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 projects launched in the past eight years has reached $1.3 trillion.

Supply and Demand

For his part, real estate expert Saqr Al-Zahrani told Asharq Al-Awsat that supply and demand are the primary drivers of the real estate market in Saudi Arabia. He anticipates that a gradual reduction in interest rates will stimulate real estate demand in the fourth quarter of 2024 by lowering financing costs, encouraging both investors and buyers to capitalize on the opportunity.

Al-Zahrani attributed the growth in real estate transactions in Riyadh to its position as a key destination for internal migration and investment opportunities, driven by infrastructure projects and a growing population, which continue to boost demand for both residential and commercial properties in Riyadh and nearby areas.

He also highlighted that regional conflicts and Saudi Arabia’s stable strategic position have increased the Kingdom’s appeal in the real estate market.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2024, Al-Zahrani expects continued growth in real estate transactions due to three key factors: the seasonal rise in demand in Makkah during Umrah and Hajj, the increase in residential and commercial projects in Riyadh alongside significant infrastructure investments, and the easing of financing restrictions with lower interest rates.

Al-Zahrani identified six factors that will drive long-term growth in Saudi Arabia’s real estate market: large infrastructure projects improving the quality of life, growing demand for housing due to population growth and internal migration, regulatory reforms facilitating property ownership and investment, increased foreign investment driven by political stability, diverse financing options such as investment funds and crowdfunding platforms, and Saudi Arabia’s stable political climate compared to neighboring countries, boosting investor confidence.



Indian State Refiners May Buy Mideast Spot Oil to Replace Russian Shortfall

A worker rides a bicycle at the Bharat Petroleum Corporation refinery in Mumbai, April 24, 2008. REUTERS/Punit Paranjpe/FILE PHOTO
A worker rides a bicycle at the Bharat Petroleum Corporation refinery in Mumbai, April 24, 2008. REUTERS/Punit Paranjpe/FILE PHOTO
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Indian State Refiners May Buy Mideast Spot Oil to Replace Russian Shortfall

A worker rides a bicycle at the Bharat Petroleum Corporation refinery in Mumbai, April 24, 2008. REUTERS/Punit Paranjpe/FILE PHOTO
A worker rides a bicycle at the Bharat Petroleum Corporation refinery in Mumbai, April 24, 2008. REUTERS/Punit Paranjpe/FILE PHOTO

Indian state refiners are considering tapping the Middle East crude market as spot supply from their top supplier Russia have fallen, three refining sources said, in a move that could support prices for high-sulphur oil.
The three large state refiners- Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp and Hindustan Petroleum- are short of 8-10 million barrels of Russian oil for January loading, the sources told Reuters.
The refiners fear continued problems in securing Russian oil in the spot market could continue in coming months as Moscow's own demand is rising and it has to meet commitments under the OPEC pact.
However, they added that they can draw from their inventories to meet crude processing needs in March.
Two of the sources said their company may lift more crude from Middle East suppliers under optional volumes in term contracts or to float a spot tender for high-sulphur oil.

IOC, the country's top refiner, previously floated spot tenders to buy sour grades in March 2022.
The companies did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
India became the largest importer of Russian crude after the European Union, previously the top buyer, imposed sanctions on Russian oil imports in response to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Russian oil accounts for more than a third of India's energy imports.
Russia's spot crude exports since November as its refineries resumed operations after the maintenance season and poor weather disrupted shipping activities, traders said.
“We have to explore alternative grades as Russia's own demand is rising and it has to meet its commitments under OPEC,” said another of the three sources.
Russia, an ally of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, promised to make extra cuts to its oil output from the end of 2024 to compensate for overproduction earlier.
Also, most supplies from Russia's state oil firm Rosneft are tied up in a deal with Indian private refiner Reliance Industries, Reuters reported earlier this month.
The new deal accounts for roughly half of Rosneft's seaborne oil exports from Russian ports, leaving little supply available for spot sales, sources told Reuters earlier this month.
India has no sanctions on Russian oil, so refiners there have cashed in on supplies made cheaper than rival grades by the penalties by at least $3 to $4 per barrel.
Sources said there are traders in the market that are willing to supply Russian oil for payments in Chinese Yuan but noted that state refiners stopped paying for Russian oil in the Chinese currency after advice from the government last year.
“It is not that alternatives to Russian oil are not available in the market but our economics will suffer,” the first source said.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday, reversing the prior session's losses, buoyed by a slightly positive market outlook for the short term, despite thin trade ahead of the Christmas holiday.
Brent crude futures were up 42 cents, or 0.6%, to $73.05 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 38 cents, or 0.6%, to $69.62 a barrel at 0742 GMT, Reuters reported.
FGE analysts said they anticipated the benchmark prices would fluctuate around current levels in the short term “as activity in the paper markets decreases during the holiday season and market participants stay on the sidelines until they get a clearer view of 2024 and 2025 global oil balances.”
Supply and demand changes in December have been supportive of their current less-bearish view so far, the analysts said in a note.
“Given how short the paper market is on positioning, any supply disruption could lead to upward spikes in structure,” they added.
Some analysts also pointed to signs of greater oil demand over the next few months.
“The year is ending with the consensus from major agencies over long 2025 liquids balances starting to break down,” Neil Crosby, Sparta Commodities' assistant vice president of oil analytics, said in a note.
Also supporting prices was a plan by China, the world's biggest oil importer, to issue 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) worth of special treasury bonds next year, as Beijing ramps up fiscal stimulus to revive a faltering economy.
China's stimulus is likely to provide near-term support for WTI crude at $67 a barrel, said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.