Iran: Calculation Error Behind Failure of Israeli Strikes

The funeral of an Iranian Air Defense officer in Borujerd, Central Iran. (IRNA)
The funeral of an Iranian Air Defense officer in Borujerd, Central Iran. (IRNA)
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Iran: Calculation Error Behind Failure of Israeli Strikes

The funeral of an Iranian Air Defense officer in Borujerd, Central Iran. (IRNA)
The funeral of an Iranian Air Defense officer in Borujerd, Central Iran. (IRNA)

Iranian security officials confirmed on Tuesday that Israeli airstrikes did not meet their goals due to a “calculation error.”

However, satellite images indicate that the strikes damaged a missile manufacturing facility associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Analysis by the Associated Press suggests the Israeli attacks likely affected an IRGC base involved in producing ballistic missiles and launching missiles as part of its space program.

The damage at the Shahroud facility raises questions about the Israeli strikes that occurred early Saturday, particularly since it was in an area that Tehran had not previously acknowledged.

The IRGC has not commented on any damage from the attacks. Iran only reported that the Israeli strikes targeted the provinces of Ilam, Khuzestan, and Tehran, without mentioning Semnan province, where the facility is located.

On Oct. 25, 2024, the Israeli military launched “precise and targeted” strikes on missile production sites and other military capabilities in Iran in response to an earlier attack by Tehran on Israel.

Israel warned that Iran would face a “heavy price” if it retaliated.

Iran’s Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh said that “Israel did not achieve its goals in its recent attack on the country.”

In a message honoring air defense personnel killed in the Israeli strikes, Nasirzadeh pointed out that “Israel made another mistake in judging Iran’s deterrence capabilities.”

He called the attacks “a clear violation of international law” and noted that they failed to accomplish their objectives.

According to the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency, Nasirzadeh claimed that “Iran’s comprehensive air defense system successfully intercepted and countered the Israeli attack on military sites in Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam.”

Gholamreza Jalali, head of Iran’s Civil Defense Organization, stated on Tuesday that “Israel was planning to attack Iran’s military infrastructure.”

In comments to the media, Jalali said that “civil defense supports the military sector and is investing in industrial control systems for cyberspace.”

He highlighted the one of the systems which manages operations in refineries and gas and water transmission lines, helping the country defend against cyberattacks.

Jalali disclosed that “Iran began checking control and communication devices after the pager explosions in Lebanon and found a previously planted sensor during inspections of external servers.”

“We discovered software sensors that could threaten the country. These risks can no longer be ignored and need investigation,” he noted.

Jalali confirmed that Tehran is now working with “a local knowledge-based company to build internal servers.”



Ukraine Rolls Out Dozens of AI Systems to Help its Drones Hit Targets

A child films with her mobile phone near the site of a Russian drone strike in Kyiv on October 29, 2024, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Photo by Anatolii STEPANOV / AFP)
A child films with her mobile phone near the site of a Russian drone strike in Kyiv on October 29, 2024, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Photo by Anatolii STEPANOV / AFP)
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Ukraine Rolls Out Dozens of AI Systems to Help its Drones Hit Targets

A child films with her mobile phone near the site of a Russian drone strike in Kyiv on October 29, 2024, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Photo by Anatolii STEPANOV / AFP)
A child films with her mobile phone near the site of a Russian drone strike in Kyiv on October 29, 2024, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Photo by Anatolii STEPANOV / AFP)

Ukraine is using dozens of domestically made AI-augmented systems for its drones to reach targets on the battlefield without being piloted, a senior official said, disclosing new details about the race against Russia to harness automation.
Systems that use artificial intelligence allow cheap drones carrying explosives to spot or fly to their targets in areas protected by extensive signal jamming, which has reduced the effectiveness of manually piloted drones, Reuters reported.
The shift towards the use of AI, particularly in drone target finding and flight control, is an important emerging front in the technology race that has unfolded since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
"There are currently several dozen solutions on the market from Ukrainian manufacturers ... they are being purchased and delivered into the armed forces and other defense forces," Ukraine's deputy defense minister Kateryna Chernohorenko said of drone AI systems.
She said they were currently being used in a targeted way in special operations.
Automated drone systems are in high demand among soldiers searching for ways to beat the rapidly increasing use of electronic warfare on the battlefield.
Electronic warfare systems create a protective dome around their location by sending out powerful signals that disrupt communication between drones and their pilots, causing them to lose control of the craft and miss their target.
These systems, once only used to protect the highest-value pieces of equipment, have become a common feature in trenches and on regular vehicles used by soldiers as they seek to protect themselves from the threat of first person view (FPV) drones.
These small and cheap drones, originally built for civilian enthusiasts to race, have since become the most commonly used strike drone on the battlefield, with both countries ramping up their production into the millions per year.
'NEXT PHASE OF THE WAR' A Ukrainian official told Reuters in July that most first person view units' target strike rate had fallen to 30%-50%, while for new pilots that can be as low as 10%, and that signal jamming was the main problem.
The official predicted that AI-operated first person view drones could achieve hit rates of around 80%.
Samuel Bendett, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think-tank, said statements from officials on both sides showed automation would likely play an important role in the next phase of the war, but that it was currently not widespread.
"At this point in the conflict, we're seeing small scale application of these technologies as multiple developers are trying to position themselves and their drones as the go to solution," he said.
"Right now, the solutions are relatively simple and often based on commercial technologies that have been available even before the war, but more complicated features can also become available."
Ukraine is also using interceptor drones to down the vast numbers of Russian camera reconnaissance drones helping target artillery and missile strikes on Ukrainian targets behind the lines.
Chernohorenko, the defense official, said that these also needed to be equipped with AI targeting.
"Russian reconnaissance drones are causing huge problems on the frontlines (but) they are now being shot down rather effectively by our interceptors."
COMPUTER VISION
Dmytro Vovchuk, the chief operating officer of NORDA Dynamics, a Ukrainian company which makes software for drones, told Reuters they had been making a product which used computer vision, a type of AI technology, to guide strike drones towards their target.
The software allows a pilot to select a target via the drone's camera, at which point the craft completes the rest of the flight into it autonomously.
The company has sold over 15,000 units of its automated targeting software to drone manufacturers, with over 10,000 of those already delivered. Although in raw terms that is a large number, it is still a tiny proportion of the 4 million drones Ukraine says it is now capable of producing annually.
Vovchuk said strikes could not always be visually confirmed due to the heavy presence of electronic warfare systems around high-value targets.
"From what we have seen, three tanks were definitely destroyed with our systems, as well as a lot (of strikes) on logistics targets," he said, adding that it had also been used to hit field headquarters.
"Those things which are defended by electronic warfare ... this system has enabled strikes on targets which previously it was not cost-effective to hit."