Lebanon’s Struggling Economy Slides Toward Full Recession

The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
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Lebanon’s Struggling Economy Slides Toward Full Recession

The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)

The ongoing Israeli war on Lebanon has led to significant economic losses estimated between $10 billion and $20 billion.

This range reflects the difficulty in accurately assessing the damage amid Israel’s ongoing military operations, including airstrikes and ground attacks.

The destruction of homes, infrastructure, and farmland has contributed to a state of uncertainty, along with an unprecedented wave of displacement affecting many families.

Experts agree that reliable economic data is hard to obtain while the conflict continues.

Reports from the Ministry of Health and international organizations said nearly 3,000 people have been killed and around 15,000 injured, mostly civilians.

Additionally, about 1.4 million people have been displaced from their homes, representing roughly a quarter of Lebanon’s population.

Growing economic crisis ahead

The war came at a time when Lebanon’s economy was already struggling after five years of crisis.

According to Mohammad Choucair, head of the Economic Bodies Association, the situation is worsening rapidly, threatening serious economic and social consequences.

Current estimates suggest that direct losses from the conflict could reach between $10 billion and $12 billion, impacting various sectors.

As the war continues, key sectors like tourism, agriculture, and trade are experiencing a sharp decline in business activity.

Many small and medium-sized enterprises are being forced to close or suspend operations due to direct damage from attacks, reduced consumer demand, and disruptions in trade and supply chains caused by the influx of displaced people.

International financial institutions are warning that the ongoing Israeli attacks could continue for several more months, possibly lasting until mid-2025.

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) forecasts a 7% contraction in Lebanon’s GDP by the end of this year, followed by a 10% decline next year.

This would bring the total economic decline to nearly 60% from the peak GDP of around $53 billion recorded at the end of 2018.



Gold Eases from Record Peak on Profit-taking; Trump's Tariffs in Focus

Gold bars at a gold shop in Bangkok, Thailand, 01 April 2025. EPA/RUNGROJ YONGRIT
Gold bars at a gold shop in Bangkok, Thailand, 01 April 2025. EPA/RUNGROJ YONGRIT
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Gold Eases from Record Peak on Profit-taking; Trump's Tariffs in Focus

Gold bars at a gold shop in Bangkok, Thailand, 01 April 2025. EPA/RUNGROJ YONGRIT
Gold bars at a gold shop in Bangkok, Thailand, 01 April 2025. EPA/RUNGROJ YONGRIT

Gold dipped on Thursday as traders locked in profits after prices hit a record high, following a rush to safe-haven assets triggered by US President Donald Trump's aggressive import tariffs, which escalated the already intense global trade war.

Spot gold was down 0.4% at $3,122.1, as of 0710 GMT. Earlier in the session, bullion hit an all-time high of $3,167.57.

US gold futures fell 0.7% to $3,145.00.

Trump unveiled on Wednesday a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the US, and higher duties on dozens of countries, including some of its biggest trading partners, deepening a trade war that has rattled global markets, Reuters said.

The reciprocal tariffs do not apply to certain goods, including gold, energy and "certain minerals that are not available in the US," according to a White House fact sheet.

One of the factors supporting gold was "the slowdown that tariffs are likely to cause the US economy, raising the prospects of future rate cuts," Capital.com's financial market analyst Kyle Rodda said.

The Trump administration confirmed that the 25% global car and truck tariffs will take effect on April 3, as planned, and duties on automotive parts imports will be launched on May 3.

Gold is in "a pure momentum trade, where bulls who were left for dust are agonizing on the side line, eager for even the smallest of dips, and until we see a volatile shakeout big enough to stun bulls and bears, the momentum trade could continue higher," said Matt Simpson, a senior analyst at City Index.

Gold, a hedge against political and financial instabilities, has surged more than 19% year-to-date, mainly driven by tariff jitters, rate- cut possibilities, geopolitical conflicts, and central bank buying.

"There's also some front running going on amongst traders who anticipate (Trump's) policies will drive central banks to park their reserves in gold rather than US dollar-denominated assets," Rodda said.

Market awaits US non-farm payrolls report due on Friday for clues into the Federal Reserve's policy path.

Spot silver slipped 2.8% to $33.07 an ounce, platinum fell 1.5% to $968.37, and palladium lost 1.4% to $956.50.