Oil up 1% on Mideast Risks, China Stimulus

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil up 1% on Mideast Risks, China Stimulus

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices rose more than 1% on Tuesday to their highest levels since the beginning of the month, supported by instability in the Middle East and China's plans for more economic stimulus.

Brent futures climbed 84 cents, or 1.2%, to $71.91 a barrel by 0911 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures also rose 84 cents, 1.2%, to $68.42.

Oil prices gained support from President Donald Trump's vow to continue the US assault on Yemen's Houthis unless they end their attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Trump said on Monday he would hold Iran responsible for any attacks carried out by the Houthi group that it backs in Yemen.

Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes in Gaza killed at least 200 people, Palestinian health authorities said, as attacks on Tuesday ended a weeks-long standoff over extending a ceasefire that halted fighting in January, Reuters reported.

"Along with US strikes on the Houthis in Yemen, several factors provided support to the market," ING analysts said in a research note.

"China unveiled plans to revive consumption, while Chinese retail sales and fixed asset investment growth came in stronger than expected."

The state council, or cabinet, unveiled on Sunday a special action plan to boost domestic consumption, with measures such as increasing incomes and offering childcare subsidies.

Crude oil throughput in China, the world's biggest crude importer, rose 2.1% in January and February from a year earlier, supported by a new refinery and Lunar New Year holiday travel, official data showed on Monday.

The OECD said on Monday that Trump's tariffs would drag down growth in the United States, Canada and Mexico, and weigh on global energy demand.

"With global supply surging and tariffs and trade wars set to hit global demand, we remain of the view that prices will head lower and eventually reach the mid $60s," said Robert Rennie, head of commodity and carbon strategy at Westpac.

Further adding to global supply, Venezuela's state-run PDVSA has put together three operational scenarios indicating it plans to continue producing and exporting oil from its joint venture with Chevron after the US major's licence expires next month, according to a company document reviewed by Reuters on Monday.

Talks on Tuesday between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin about ending the Ukraine war were also in focus.

Markets believe a potential peace negotiation would involve the easing of sanctions on Russia and the return of its crude supply to global markets, weighing on prices.



Oil Slips as Iran-Israel Conflict Enters Sixth Day

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
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Oil Slips as Iran-Israel Conflict Enters Sixth Day

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Oil prices fell on Wednesday, after a gain of 4% in the previous session, as markets weighed up the chance of supply disruptions from the Iran-Israel conflict and as they ponder a direct US involvement.

Brent crude futures fell 93 cents, or 1.2%, to $75.52 a barrel by 0918 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 88 cents, also 1.2%, to $73.96 per barrel.

US President Trump warned on social media on Tuesday that US patience was wearing thin, and called for an "unconditional surrender" from Iran.

While he said there was no intention to kill Iran's leader Ali Khamenei "for now," his comments suggested a tougher stance toward Iran as he weighs whether to deepen US involvement.

A source familiar with internal discussions said one of the options Trump and his team are considering included joining Israel on strikes against Iranian nuclear sites.

A direct US involvement threatens to widen the confrontation further, putting energy infrastructure in the region at higher risk of attack, analysts say.

"The biggest fear for the oil market is the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz," ING analysts said in a note.

"Almost a third of global seaborne oil trade moves through this chokepoint. A significant disruption to these flows would be enough to push prices to $120 [a barrel]," the bank added.

Iran is OPEC's third-largest producer, extracting about 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil.

Meanwhile, Iranian ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva Ali Bahreini said on Wednesday that Tehran has conveyed to Washington that it will respond firmly to the United States if it becomes directly involved in Israel's military campaign.

Markets are also looking ahead to a second day of US Federal Reserve discussions on Wednesday, in which the central bank is expected to leave its benchmark overnight interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%.

However, the conflict in the Middle East and the risk of slowing global growth could potentially push the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in July, sooner than the market's current expectation of September, said Tony Sycamore, market analyst with IG.

Lower interest rates generally boost economic growth and demand for oil.

Confounding the decision for the Fed, however, is the Middle East conflict's potential creation of a new source of inflation via surging oil prices.

US crude stocks fell by 10.1 million barrels in the week ended June 13, market sources told Reuters, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Official Energy Information Administration data is due later on Wednesday.