Israel-Iran Conflict Disrupts Air Travel in the Region

Flight information display screen shows updates about cancelled flights, due to schedule disruptions stemming from the Iran-Israel conflict, at the Beirut-Rafik Hariri International Airport, Lebanon June 16, 2025. (Reuters)
Flight information display screen shows updates about cancelled flights, due to schedule disruptions stemming from the Iran-Israel conflict, at the Beirut-Rafik Hariri International Airport, Lebanon June 16, 2025. (Reuters)
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Israel-Iran Conflict Disrupts Air Travel in the Region

Flight information display screen shows updates about cancelled flights, due to schedule disruptions stemming from the Iran-Israel conflict, at the Beirut-Rafik Hariri International Airport, Lebanon June 16, 2025. (Reuters)
Flight information display screen shows updates about cancelled flights, due to schedule disruptions stemming from the Iran-Israel conflict, at the Beirut-Rafik Hariri International Airport, Lebanon June 16, 2025. (Reuters)

The escalating military conflict between Israel and Iran is creating mounting challenges for Middle Eastern airlines, including airspace closures and rerouted flight paths, all of which are driving up operational costs.

While Gulf carriers are relying on alternative routes - albeit more expensive ones - private airlines in neighboring countries face the risk of exiting the market altogether if the crisis persists.

Countries geographically close to the conflict, such as Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan, are increasingly concerned about the conflict’s deepening impact on the civil aviation sector, which represents one of the most sensitive branches of their economies. The threat is no longer confined to security concerns alone, but is now hitting the economic core of these nations.

Dr. Hussein Al-Zahrani, an aviation investor, told Asharq Al-Awsat that countries geographically tied to the Iran-Israel conflict are already facing direct complications in the aviation sector. These include airport closures and rerouted flights, such as the diversion of Jordanian planes to Egypt’s Cairo and Sharm El Sheikh, or grounding aircraft entirely.

Al-Zahrani noted that national carriers in these countries, particularly state-owned airlines, are more likely to receive government support to help them weather the storm. However, the limited number of private airlines operating in these regions may not survive a prolonged crisis.

Iraq has approximately five carriers, Lebanon one, Syria two (one of which is government-owned), and Jordan three; all of which could suffer significantly if the conflict drags on.

In contrast, Gulf airlines have contingency plans in place, Al-Zahrani said, although they are not immune to the repercussions.

Increased flight distances and restricted airspace will present logistical and financial burdens, though Gulf carriers are more resilient and often absorb the extra costs themselves. In many cases, rerouting results in only minor extensions - around 20 minutes - which allows airlines to maintain stable pricing.

He cited exceptions, such as some northern-bound Kuwaiti flights to Europe that typically rely on Iraqi airspace. These will now need to reroute via Saudi airspace, then over the Mediterranean to reach Europe, significantly increasing flight durations and operating expenses.

Al-Zahrani also pointed out that many transcontinental flights between East and West, which pass over Saudi and Iraqi airspace, will be disrupted if closures in conflict zones persist. This may force airlines to reschedule, reroute, or even suspend certain long-haul routes if they become economically unfeasible.

Aviation-sector companies are considered foundational contributors to national budgets, particularly in countries where the industry plays a major economic role. According to Al-Zahrani, these entities are typically the first to suffer in the event of military conflicts, especially as oil prices rise and long-haul operations become increasingly expensive.

Observers warn that if Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz - a vital maritime corridor connecting the Arabian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea - it would further heighten concerns for both maritime and air transportation companies, given the anticipated spike in insurance costs and risk premiums should the crisis continue.

Economic analyst Marwan Al-Sharif told Asharq Al-Awsat that airlines may be able to navigate the crisis if it remains short-lived, especially those operating in proximity to the warring parties. However, if the conflict drags on, the resulting losses could grow more severe, weakening the financial viability of many carriers amid rising fuel costs, airspace restrictions, and surging insurance rates.



Eight OPEC+ Alliance Members Move toward Output Hike at Meeting

FILE PHOTO: OPEC logo is seen in this illustration taken, October 8, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: OPEC logo is seen in this illustration taken, October 8, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File Photo
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Eight OPEC+ Alliance Members Move toward Output Hike at Meeting

FILE PHOTO: OPEC logo is seen in this illustration taken, October 8, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: OPEC logo is seen in this illustration taken, October 8, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File Photo

Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other key members of the OPEC+ alliance will discuss crude production on Saturday, with analysts expecting the latest in a series of output hikes for August.

The wider OPEC+ group -- comprising the 12-nation Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies -- began output cuts in 2022 in a bid to prop up prices.

But in a policy shift, eight alliance members surprised markets by announcing they would significantly raise production from May, sending oil prices plummeting.

Oil prices have been hovering around a low $65-$70 per barrel.

Representatives of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman will take part in Saturday's meeting, expected to be held by video.

Analysts expect the so-called "Voluntary Eight" (V8) nations to decide on another output increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) -- the same target approved for May, June and July.

The group has placed an "increased focus on regaining market shares over price stability," said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.

Enforcing quotas

The group will likely justify its decision by officially referring to "low inventories and solid demand as reasons for the faster unwind of the production cuts", UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told AFP.

But the failure of some OPEC member countries, such as Kazakhstan, to stick to their output quotas, is "a factor supporting the decision", he added.

According to Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, an output hike of 411,000 bpd will translate into "around 250,000 or 300,000" actual barrels.

An estimate by Bloomberg showed that the alliance's production increased by only 200,000 bpd in May, despite doubling the quotas.

No effect from Israel-Iran war

Analysts expect no major effect on current oil prices, as another output hike is widely anticipated.

The meeting comes after a 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel, which briefly sent prices above $80 a barrel amid concerns over a possible closing of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about one-fifth of the world's oil supply.

As fears of a wider Middle East conflict have eased, and given there "were no supply disruptions so far", the war is "unlikely to impact the decision" of the alliance, Staunovo added.

The Israel-Iran conflict "if anything supports a continued rapid production increase in the unlikely event Iran's ability to produce and export get disrupted," Hansen told AFP.