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US Scientists Say One-in-Three Chance 2024 Another Year of Record Heat

A helicopter makes a water drop as a wildfire burns parts of the rural areas of Santiago, Chile December 19, 2023. (Reuters)
A helicopter makes a water drop as a wildfire burns parts of the rural areas of Santiago, Chile December 19, 2023. (Reuters)
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US Scientists Say One-in-Three Chance 2024 Another Year of Record Heat

A helicopter makes a water drop as a wildfire burns parts of the rural areas of Santiago, Chile December 19, 2023. (Reuters)
A helicopter makes a water drop as a wildfire burns parts of the rural areas of Santiago, Chile December 19, 2023. (Reuters)

This year has a one-in-three chance of being even hotter than 2023, which was already the world's hottest on record, scientists from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Friday.

In its annual global climate analysis, the agency confirmed the findings of EU scientists that 2023 was the warmest since records began in 1850, putting it at 1.35 degrees Celsius (2.43 degrees Fahrenheit) above the preindustrial average. The amount of heat stored in the upper layers of the ocean also reached a record high last year, NOAA said.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also confirmed 2023 was a record year on Friday and said the world has warmed 1.2C (2.16F) above the preindustrial average, based on the ten-year global average temperature from 2014 to 2023.

The record was made possible by climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, alongside an El Nino climate pattern that emerged halfway through the year. El Nino is a natural event that leads to warmer surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean and higher global temperatures.

It is expected to persist until at least April, increasing the likelihood 2024 will be another record year.

"The interesting and depressing question is what will happen in 2024? Will it be warmer than 2023? We don't know yet," said Christopher Hewitt, WMO head of international climate services.

NOAA said there was a one-in-three chance that 2024 would be warmer than 2023, and a 99% chance it would rank among the five warmest on record.

"It's highly likely (El Nino) will persist until April, possibly May, and then beyond that we're not sure — it becomes less certain," said Hewitt.

The impacts of El Nino normally peak during the Northern Hemisphere's winter and then diminish, switching to either neutral conditions or a La Nina phase which generally yields cooler global temperatures. But there is also the risk El Nino will return.

"If we were to make a transition into a La Nina phase ... maybe 2024 might not be the warmest on record," said Carlo Buontempo, director of Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service.

As the Southern Hemisphere is now in summer when El Nino peaks, authorities are on alert for heatwaves, drought and fire.

This week, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology issued extreme heat alerts for Western Australia.

And in southern Africa, "we're really concerned about the potential for dry spells in January and February with a high likelihood of below-average rainfall," said Lark Walters, a decision support adviser for the Famine Early Warning System Network.

"We're estimating over 20 million will be in need of emergency food assistance."

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Heartbroken Brits Abandon Pets as Living Costs Bite

Rising numbers of pets are being left at the Mayhew shelter in London as owners no longer able to afford their care take the heartbreaking decision to try to re-home them. Ben STANSALL / AFP
Rising numbers of pets are being left at the Mayhew shelter in London as owners no longer able to afford their care take the heartbreaking decision to try to re-home them. Ben STANSALL / AFP
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Heartbroken Brits Abandon Pets as Living Costs Bite

Rising numbers of pets are being left at the Mayhew shelter in London as owners no longer able to afford their care take the heartbreaking decision to try to re-home them. Ben STANSALL / AFP
Rising numbers of pets are being left at the Mayhew shelter in London as owners no longer able to afford their care take the heartbreaking decision to try to re-home them. Ben STANSALL / AFP

Staff at a London animal shelter have seen more than their fair share of abandoned pets over the years, from kittens in boxes to budgies dropped outside in the dead of night.
But lately there has been a surge in the numbers as people make the heartbreaking decision to give up their animal companions, no longer able to afford to care for their pets.

Struggling animal owners are feeling "a lot of heartache... and also shame and frustration that they're having to make these decisions," said Elvira Meucci-Lyons, the boss of the Mayhew shelter in Kensal Green, west London.

"They come to us because they feel they have no choice," she said.

"Behind every animal we take in there's a human story."

The small center has taken in more than 130 animals this year alone. It is part of a wider rise across the UK, where tens of thousands of pets have been abandoned since the Covid-19 pandemic and the onset of a cost-of-living crisis.

In the first few months of this year, more than 5,700 abandonments have been reported to the RSPCA, the world's oldest animal welfare organization -- a 32 percent rise on the same period in 2024.

Last year saw around 22,500 cases reported in total, up more than seven percent on 2023.
The challenge of affording animal care poses a heart-wrenching problem for many in Britain, a nation of dog and cat lovers where half the adult population -- more than 26 million people -- has a pet, according to the RSPCA.

And it has hit the country's poorest especially hard. Staff at Mayhew said some owners were having to choose between feeding themselves or their pets.

Several pets at the center -- including dogs Brownie, a one-year-old toy poodle, and Astro, a pocket American bully -- were brought in because their owners lost their homes due to financial troubles.

Stories like these are "the most upsetting", Meucci-Lyons said, because in hard times pet owners "need their lovely animals more than ever and the dog or cat doesn't want to do without their owner."

Rising vet bills
Mayhew staff said more pets were also arriving at the center in Kensal Green in poor health, often because their owners cannot afford veterinary bills.

Felix's case is typical. The muscular nine-year-old tomcat was playing with a length of string. But he arrived with tooth problems, with his owners bringing him to the shelter and saying they couldn't afford to keep him.
"We're seeing quite a lot more needing dental work nowadays," said Mayhew spokeswoman Olivia Patt.

The pandemic saw a spike in pet ownership under government lockdowns, and a subsequent wave of people then giving up their animals as normal lifestyles resumed.

Some people are returning lockdown pets, several years on. But RSPCA spokesman David Bowles told AFP that living costs, which soared during the pandemic, have become a major factor driving abandonments.

"We are now five years on from the first lockdown under Covid. The RSPCA believes the cost-of-living crisis is really impacting people's ability to pay for vet treatment in particular," he said.

UK inflation soared above 11 percent in October 2022, the highest level in more than four decades, and while it has slowed in the last few years, people are still feeling the squeeze.

Prices for many items including pet food have gone up by around 25 percent.
At Mayhew, staff have been doing all they can, from providing struggling owners with pet food and animal care packages, to offering free preventative treatments.

But the pressure has pushed the shelter's bubbly staff to their limits.

"We are run off our feet, we can't keep up with the demand," said Meucci-Lyons.

Even though the staff are comforted by knowing they make a difference, "every day it is heartbreaking -- we go to bed at night thinking about the dogs and cats we can't help," she said.