US Scientists Say One-in-Three Chance 2024 Another Year of Record Heat

 A helicopter makes a water drop as a wildfire burns parts of the rural areas of Santiago, Chile December 19, 2023. (Reuters)
A helicopter makes a water drop as a wildfire burns parts of the rural areas of Santiago, Chile December 19, 2023. (Reuters)
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US Scientists Say One-in-Three Chance 2024 Another Year of Record Heat

 A helicopter makes a water drop as a wildfire burns parts of the rural areas of Santiago, Chile December 19, 2023. (Reuters)
A helicopter makes a water drop as a wildfire burns parts of the rural areas of Santiago, Chile December 19, 2023. (Reuters)

This year has a one-in-three chance of being even hotter than 2023, which was already the world's hottest on record, scientists from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Friday.

In its annual global climate analysis, the agency confirmed the findings of EU scientists that 2023 was the warmest since records began in 1850, putting it at 1.35 degrees Celsius (2.43 degrees Fahrenheit) above the preindustrial average. The amount of heat stored in the upper layers of the ocean also reached a record high last year, NOAA said.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also confirmed 2023 was a record year on Friday and said the world has warmed 1.2C (2.16F) above the preindustrial average, based on the ten-year global average temperature from 2014 to 2023.

The record was made possible by climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, alongside an El Nino climate pattern that emerged halfway through the year. El Nino is a natural event that leads to warmer surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean and higher global temperatures.

It is expected to persist until at least April, increasing the likelihood 2024 will be another record year.

"The interesting and depressing question is what will happen in 2024? Will it be warmer than 2023? We don't know yet," said Christopher Hewitt, WMO head of international climate services.

NOAA said there was a one-in-three chance that 2024 would be warmer than 2023, and a 99% chance it would rank among the five warmest on record.

"It's highly likely (El Nino) will persist until April, possibly May, and then beyond that we're not sure — it becomes less certain," said Hewitt.

The impacts of El Nino normally peak during the Northern Hemisphere's winter and then diminish, switching to either neutral conditions or a La Nina phase which generally yields cooler global temperatures. But there is also the risk El Nino will return.

"If we were to make a transition into a La Nina phase ... maybe 2024 might not be the warmest on record," said Carlo Buontempo, director of Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service.

As the Southern Hemisphere is now in summer when El Nino peaks, authorities are on alert for heatwaves, drought and fire.

This week, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology issued extreme heat alerts for Western Australia.

And in southern Africa, "we're really concerned about the potential for dry spells in January and February with a high likelihood of below-average rainfall," said Lark Walters, a decision support adviser for the Famine Early Warning System Network.

"We're estimating over 20 million will be in need of emergency food assistance."



Man Says He Was behind Some of the Viral Googly Eyes on Public Art in Oregon

This image provided by the City of Bend, Ore., shows a pair of googly eyes placed on a public art sculpture in Bend. (City of Bend, Oregon, via AP, File)
This image provided by the City of Bend, Ore., shows a pair of googly eyes placed on a public art sculpture in Bend. (City of Bend, Oregon, via AP, File)
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Man Says He Was behind Some of the Viral Googly Eyes on Public Art in Oregon

This image provided by the City of Bend, Ore., shows a pair of googly eyes placed on a public art sculpture in Bend. (City of Bend, Oregon, via AP, File)
This image provided by the City of Bend, Ore., shows a pair of googly eyes placed on a public art sculpture in Bend. (City of Bend, Oregon, via AP, File)

A resident of the central Oregon city of Bend says he was the person behind some of the googly eyes that appeared on sculptures around the city in recent months and sparked a viral sensation widely covered by news outlets.

Jeff Keith, founder of a Bend-based nonprofit called Guardian Group that works to combat human trafficking, said Friday that he used duct tape to attach googly eyes to two sculptures. He said he has carried out similar pranks on other Bend sculptures before — such as adorning them with hula skirts and leis — and that they serve as a respite from the emotional toll of his work.

“It is a place for me to cope with some pretty heavy stuff,” he told The Associated Press, noting that many of the trafficking victims he has worked with have been through “unimaginable trauma.”

The city shared photos of the googly eye installations on social media in early December, saying the adhesives can damage the art. One photo shows googly eyes placed on a sculpture of two deer — which Keith described as his handiwork — while another shows them attached to a sphere. City officials at the time said eight sculptures were affected and that it cost $1,500 to remove the googly eyes.

The social media posts prompted a cascade of comments, with many social media users saying they liked the googly eyes and that the city shouldn’t spend time and money on removing them. The post and its comments were covered by news outlets, and even made it on a segment of CBS’s “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.”

Keith said he didn't expect his exploits to receive that much attention, and that he went to city offices to offer to pay for any damages. The city didn't immediately respond Friday to an emailed request seeking confirmation and comment.

Bend's communications director, Rene Mitchell, told The Associated Press last month that the city regretted that its post had been misunderstood. She said there was no intent to be “heavy-handed” and that the posts were meant to raise awareness about the damage adhesives can do to the city's public art collection. The city had started treating some of the art pieces, she said, which are made of different types of metal such as bronze and steel.

Keith, who has lived in Bend for nearly two decades, said he also hopes his pranks bring some humor and joy into people's everyday lives.

“I think the biggest thing is, for me, just to get a laugh,” he said. “When I come up on these roundabouts and I see families laughing, like hysterically laughing at these, it makes for a good time.”