How Missed Warnings 'Over-tourism' Aggravated Deadly India Landslides

People pray for a departed family member at their grave at a graveyard, after landslides hit several villages in Wayanad district, in Meppadi, in the southern state of Kerala, India, August 2, 2024. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas Purchase Licensing Rights
People pray for a departed family member at their grave at a graveyard, after landslides hit several villages in Wayanad district, in Meppadi, in the southern state of Kerala, India, August 2, 2024. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas Purchase Licensing Rights
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How Missed Warnings 'Over-tourism' Aggravated Deadly India Landslides

People pray for a departed family member at their grave at a graveyard, after landslides hit several villages in Wayanad district, in Meppadi, in the southern state of Kerala, India, August 2, 2024. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas Purchase Licensing Rights
People pray for a departed family member at their grave at a graveyard, after landslides hit several villages in Wayanad district, in Meppadi, in the southern state of Kerala, India, August 2, 2024. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas Purchase Licensing Rights

With a steeply pitched tiled roof piercing misty green hills in southern India and a stream gushing through rocks nearby, the Stone House Bungalow was one of the most popular resorts in the Wayanad area of Kerala state.

It was empty when two landslides early on Tuesday washed away the 30-year-old stone building: staff and tourists had left after rain flooded its kitchen a few days earlier.

But neighbouring dwellings in Mundakkai village were occupied and 205 people, almost all locals, were killed and scores are missing. Tourists had been warned to leave the day earlier because of the rain,

Local authorities are now counting the cost of the disaster and questioning whether the rapid development of a tourism industry was to blame for the tragedy. Weather-related disasters are not unusual in India, but the landslides in Kerala state this week were the worst since about 400 people were killed in floods there in 2018.

Mundakkai, the area worst affected by the landslides, was home to some 500 local families. It and neighbouring villages housed nearly 700 resorts, homestays and zip-lining stations attracting trekkers, honeymooners and tourists looking to be close to nature, a local official said. Cardamom and tea estates dotted the hills.

Experts said they had seen Tuesday's disaster coming for years and several government reports in the past 13 years had warned that over-development in the ecologically sensitive areas would increase the risk of landslides and other environmental disasters such as floods by blocking natural water flows. The warnings were largely ignored or lost in bureaucratic wrangling.

A fast-growing India is rapidly building infrastructure across the country, especially in its tourist destinations, including the ecologically fragile Himalayan foothills in the north where there has been a rise in cave-ins and landslides.

Just three weeks before the latest disaster, Kerala state Tourism Minister P. A. Mohammed Riyas said in the local legislature in answer to a question that Wayanad was "dealing with an influx of more people than it can handle, a classic example of a place facing the problem of over-tourism".

The area is just six hours by road from Bengaluru, India's tech hub, and is a favoured weekend destination for the city's wealthy IT professionals.

However, officials were unable to share any documentary evidence with Reuters of resorts and tourist facilities flouting building regulations, although they said some had done so.

Noorudheen, part of Stone House's managing staff who goes by one name, said no government or village authority had warned the management against building or operating a resort there, Reuters reported.

There was no sign that the landslides were directly caused by over-development. Residents said regions higher up in the hills were loosened by weeks of heavy rain and an unusually heavy downpour on Monday night led to rivers of mud, water and boulders crashing downhill, sweeping away settlements and people.

But experts said the unbridled development had worsened the situation by removing forest cover that absorbs rain and blocking natural runoffs.

"Wayanad is no stranger to such downpours," said N. Badusha, head of Wayanad Prakruthi Samrakshana Samiti, a local environment protection NGO.

"Unchecked tourism activity in Wayanad is the biggest factor behind worsening such calamities. Tourism has entered ecologically sensitive fragile areas where it was not supposed to be."

SURGE IN TOURISM

Wayanad received more than 1 million domestic and foreign tourists last year, nearly triple the number in 2011 when a federal government report warned against over-development in the broader mountain range the district lies in, without clearly spelling out the consequences.

"The geography is really too fragile to accommodate all that," K. Babu, a senior village council official in Mundakkai, said in his office this week as he coordinated rescue efforts. "Tourism is doing no good to the area...the tourism sector was never this active."

A Wayanad district disaster management report in 2019 warned against "mindless development carried out in recent decades by destroying hills, forests, water bodies and wetlands".

"Deforestation and reckless commercial interventions on land have destabilised the environment," Wayanad's then top official, Ajay Kumar, wrote after landslides in the district that year killed at least 14 people.

Reuters reached out to the Wayanad district head, its disaster management authority, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's office and the federal environment ministry seeking comment but there were no responses.

Mundakkai used to be a small village sitting on the eastern slope of one of the forested green hills of the Western Ghats mountain range that runs parallel to nearly the entire length of India's western coast for 1,600 km (1,000 miles).

Rashid Padikkalparamban, a 30-year-old Mundakkai native who lost six family members including his father to the landslides, said that the place came to the attention of outsiders mainly after 2019 and turned it into a major tourist attraction.

"They discovered a beautiful region full of tea and cardamom plantations, and a river that swept through it," he said at a school-turned-relief camp.

Many locals sold their lands to outsiders, who then built tourist retreats in the area, he said.

'GOD'S OWN COUNTRY'

Kerala, a sliver of land between the Western Ghat mountains to the east and the Arabian Sea to the west, is one of the most scenic states in India, and is advertised as "God's Own Country".

But it has witnessed nearly 60% of the 3,782 landslides in India between 2015 and 2022, the federal government told parliament in July 2022.

Studying the ecological sensitivity of the Western Ghats, a federal government-appointed committee said in 2011: "It has been torn asunder by the greed of the elite and gnawed at by the poor, striving to eke out a subsistence. This is a great tragedy, for this hill range is the backbone of the ecology and economy of south India."

The committee, headed by ecologist Madhav Gadgil, recommended barring mining, no new rail lines or major roads or highways in such areas, and restrictions on development in protected areas that it mapped out. For tourism, it said only minimal impact tourism should be promoted with strict waste management, traffic and water use regulations.

State governments, including Kerala, did not accept the report, and a new committee was set up, which in 2013 reduced the overall protected area from 60% of the mountain range to 37%.

But all the states along the mountain range wanted to reduce the protected area even further, minutes of successive meetings until 2019 show. The federal government issued drafts to implement the recommendations for all stakeholders, but is yet to issue a final order.

Gadgil told Reuters his committee had "specifically recommended that in ecologically highly sensitive areas there should be no further human interventions, such as reconstruction".

"The government, of course, decided to ignore our report," he said, because tourism is a cash cow.

Kerala Chief Minister Vijayan dismissed questions about the Gadgil recommendations, telling reporters his focus was on relief and rehabilitation and asking people to not "raise inappropriate propaganda in the face of this tragedy".

While experts bemoan tourism-led development, locals like Mundakkai's Padikkalparamban said it brought jobs to an area that did not have many options earlier.

"After the plantation estates, resorts are the second biggest job-generating sector in the area now," he said.

But K.R. Vancheeswaran, president of the Wayanad Tourism Organisation that has some 60 resorts and homestays as members but none in the vicinity of the landslides, said the industry needed to take some of the blame.

"If human activities are going to be unbearable to nature, nature will unleash its power and we will not be able to withstand it," Vancheeswaran said. "We have had to pay a very, very high price, so let us try to learn from it."



Is Climate Change Making Tropical Storms More Frequent? Scientists Say It’s Unclear

A drone view shows a damaged area, following the passing of Hurricane Helene, in Asheville, North Carolina, US, September 29, 2024. (Reuters)
A drone view shows a damaged area, following the passing of Hurricane Helene, in Asheville, North Carolina, US, September 29, 2024. (Reuters)
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Is Climate Change Making Tropical Storms More Frequent? Scientists Say It’s Unclear

A drone view shows a damaged area, following the passing of Hurricane Helene, in Asheville, North Carolina, US, September 29, 2024. (Reuters)
A drone view shows a damaged area, following the passing of Hurricane Helene, in Asheville, North Carolina, US, September 29, 2024. (Reuters)

An unusual cluster of typhoons in the West Pacific and a series of powerful hurricanes in the Atlantic are raising questions about the impact that climate change is having on tropical storms across the globe.

As nations thrashed out the details of a new climate financing package at COP29 talks in Azerbaijan, the Philippines was hit by its sixth deadly typhoon in a month while the United States was recovering from two devastating hurricanes.

Scientists say it remains unclear how much climate change is reshaping the storm season, or if it is responsible for the rare appearance of four tropical cyclones at the same time in the West Pacific - the first time this has happened in November since 1961.

Higher sea surface temperatures speed up evaporation and provide additional "fuel" for tropical cyclones, boosting rainfall and wind speeds, they say.

And the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2023, expressed "high confidence" global warming would make storms more intense.

The Philippines' latest supertyphoon Man-Yi landed on Saturday, forcing the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of residents. At least eight people died on Monday, adding to a death toll of more than 160 since October.

"It is rare to see a cluster of four tropical cyclones in the western north Pacific at the same time," said Feng Xiangbo, a tropical storm researcher at Britain's University of Reading.

"(But) blaming climate change ... for this unprecedented event this week is not straightforward," he added.

Evidence suggests that while climate change is increasing storm intensity, it has also reduced their frequency, especially during what is typically the late season from October to November, Feng said.

This year, atmospheric waves that have recently been active near the equator could be an alternative explanation for the unusual uptick, Feng said, but their relationship with climate change is unclear.

The belt of high pressure known as the sub-tropical ridge, part of the global atmospheric circulation system, has been stronger and stretched further north and west than usual, according to Choy Chun Win, Senior Scientific Officer at the Hong Kong Observatory.

The ridge could have steered the storms in a westerly direction, diverting them away from cooler waters and wind shears, which would normally weaken them, providing an explanation why four could coexist, he said.

"However, more research is required to assess the contribution of climate change to the chance occurrence of the multiple tropical cyclones and the longer tropical cyclone season," he added.

Ben Clarke, weather researcher with London's Grantham Institute on Climate Change and Environment, said it "would make sense" that rising ocean temperatures would extend the typhoon season, but the evidence is not conclusive.

"There has been a clear recent increase in the number of tropical cyclones affecting the Philippines in its less active season from approximately December to February, but this doesn't tell us much about ... June-November," he said.

STRONGER HURRICANES

In an analysis published on Wednesday, US weather researchers Climate Central said Atlantic hurricanes have intensified significantly this year as a result of record-breaking ocean warming.

Since 2019, warmer temperatures have driven average wind speeds up by 18 miles per hour (29 kph) and pushed three hurricanes into the highest Category 5, the study said.

The two deadly Category 5 hurricanes known as Helene and Milton, which hit Florida in September and October respectively, would have been unlikely without climate change, it said.

Research is still ongoing on whether tropical cyclones are becoming more frequent, but there is high scientific confidence that warmer sea temperatures are driving up rainfall and causing higher storm surges, said Daniel Gilford, Climate Central's lead hurricane researcher.

"While other factors contribute to each storm's strength, the impacts of elevated sea surface temperatures are prominent and significant," he said.

"In the Atlantic, more than 80% of storms since 2019 were clearly influenced by warm ocean temperatures caused by carbon pollution."