Probability of Russia's Exit from Grain Deal Remains High

Ukrainian farmers harvest grain in the Odesa region, south Ukraine, 23 June 2023. EPA/IGOR TKACHENKO
Ukrainian farmers harvest grain in the Odesa region, south Ukraine, 23 June 2023. EPA/IGOR TKACHENKO
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Probability of Russia's Exit from Grain Deal Remains High

Ukrainian farmers harvest grain in the Odesa region, south Ukraine, 23 June 2023. EPA/IGOR TKACHENKO
Ukrainian farmers harvest grain in the Odesa region, south Ukraine, 23 June 2023. EPA/IGOR TKACHENKO

The probability of Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal in July remains high, although talks continue, Russia's RIA news agency cited an anonymous source as saying on Wednesday.

Moscow has repeatedly complained that it was not getting what it wanted from the deal which has allowed grain to be shipped out of Ukrainian ports and expires on July 18.

The Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority said on Tuesday that Ukraine must be ready to export grain almost exclusively via its Danube River ports because Russia is effectively blocking Black Sea shipments.

The United Nations and Türkiye brokered a deal between Moscow and Kyiv last July on the safe passage of Black Sea grain to help tackle a global food crisis worsened by Russia's invasion of its neighbor and a blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports.

Moscow has threatened not to extend the deal beyond July 18 unless a series of demands are met, including the removal of obstacles to Russian grain and fertilizer exports. It says that promises of help with those exports have not materialized.



Two US Navy Pilots Shot Down Over Red Sea in Apparent ‘Friendly Fire’ Incident, US Military Says

Aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman is moored near Split, Croatia, Feb. 14, 2022. (AP)
Aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman is moored near Split, Croatia, Feb. 14, 2022. (AP)
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Two US Navy Pilots Shot Down Over Red Sea in Apparent ‘Friendly Fire’ Incident, US Military Says

Aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman is moored near Split, Croatia, Feb. 14, 2022. (AP)
Aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman is moored near Split, Croatia, Feb. 14, 2022. (AP)

Two US Navy pilots were shot down Sunday over the Red Sea in an apparent “friendly fire” incident, the US military said, marking the most serious incident to threaten troops in over a year of America targeting Yemen's Houthi militias.

Both pilots were recovered alive after ejecting from their stricken aircraft, with one suffering minor injuries. But the shootdown underlines just how dangerous the Red Sea corridor has become over the ongoing attacks on shipping by the Iranian-backed Houthis despite US and European military coalitions patrolling the area.

The US military had conducted airstrikes targeting the Houthis at the time, though the US military’s Central Command did not elaborate on what their mission was and did not immediately respond to questions from The Associated Press.

The F/A-18 shot down had just flown off the deck of the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier, Central Command said. On Dec. 15, Central Command acknowledged the Truman had entered the Mideast, but hadn't specified that the carrier and its battle group was in the Red Sea.

“The guided missile cruiser USS Gettysburg, which is part of the USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group, mistakenly fired on and hit the F/A-18,” Central Command said in a statement.

From the military's description, the aircraft shot down was a two-seat F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jet assigned to the “Red Rippers” of Strike Fighter Squadron 11 out of Naval Air Station Oceana, Virginia.

It wasn't immediately clear how the Gettysburg could mistake an F/A-18 for an enemy aircraft or missile, particularly as ships in a battle group remain linked by both radar and radio communication.

However, Central Command said that warships and aircraft earlier shot down multiple Houthi drones and an anti-ship cruise missile launched by the militias. Incoming hostile fire from the Houthis has given sailors just seconds to make decisions in the past.

Since the Truman's arrival, the US has stepped up its airstrikes targeting the Houthis and their missile fire into the Red Sea and the surrounding area. However, the presence of an American warship group may spark renewed attacks from the militias, like what the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower saw earlier this year. That deployment marked what the Navy described as its most intense combat since World War II.

On Saturday night and early Sunday, US warplanes conducted airstrikes that shook Sanaa, the capital of Yemen that the Houthis have held since 2014. Central Command described the strikes as targeting a “missile storage facility” and a “command-and-control facility,” without elaborating.

Houthi-controlled media reported strikes in both Sanaa and around the port city of Hodeidah, without offering any casualty or damage information. In Sanaa, strikes appeared particularly targeted at a mountainside known to be home to military installations. The Houthis later acknowledged the aircraft being shot down in the Red Sea.

The Houthis have targeted about 100 merchant vessels with missiles and drones since the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip started in October 2023 after Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel that killed 1,200 people and saw 250 others taken hostage.

Israel’s grinding offensive in Gaza has killed more than 45,000 Palestinians, local health officials say. The tally doesn’t distinguish between combatants and civilians.

The Houthis have seized one vessel and sunk two in a campaign that has also killed four sailors. Other missiles and drones have either been intercepted by separate US- and European-led coalitions in the Red Sea or failed to reach their targets, which have also included Western military vessels.

The militias maintain that they target ships linked to Israel, the US or the United Kingdom to force an end to Israel’s campaign against Hamas in Gaza. However, many of the ships attacked have little or no connection to the conflict, including some bound for Iran.

The Houthis also have increasingly targeted Israel itself with drones and missiles, resulting in retaliatory Israeli airstrikes.