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Iran's Navy Acquires ‘Sanctioned’ Cruise Missiles

Iranian missiles called Abu Mahdi are displayed during the ceremony of joining the IRGC Navy and the Army, in Tehran, Iran, in this picture obtained on July 25, 2023. Iran's Defense Ministry/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS
Iranian missiles called Abu Mahdi are displayed during the ceremony of joining the IRGC Navy and the Army, in Tehran, Iran, in this picture obtained on July 25, 2023. Iran's Defense Ministry/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS
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Iran's Navy Acquires ‘Sanctioned’ Cruise Missiles

Iranian missiles called Abu Mahdi are displayed during the ceremony of joining the IRGC Navy and the Army, in Tehran, Iran, in this picture obtained on July 25, 2023. Iran's Defense Ministry/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS
Iranian missiles called Abu Mahdi are displayed during the ceremony of joining the IRGC Navy and the Army, in Tehran, Iran, in this picture obtained on July 25, 2023. Iran's Defense Ministry/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS

The Iranian Navy and the Revolutionary Guards Corp's Navy have received the "Abu Mahdi" cruise missile three years after its unveiling.

The 1000 km-range cruise missile is sanctioned for its capacity to disable enemy aircraft carriers.

In 2020, the head of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, died during a US drone attack in Baghdad, along with IRGC's al-Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. The assassination pushed Iran and the US to the brink of war, during which Tehran used ballistic missiles for the first time in an attack on a US military base.

In August 2020, Iran announced naming two new missiles: A 1,400 km range ballistic missile named Soleimani and a sea cruise missile Abu Mahdi.

The Iranian Defense Ministry held an official ceremony, in the presence of the top officials of the naval forces and the IRGC, to hand over dozens of the missiles.

Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiansi said the missile enjoys pinpoint accuracy and very high destruction power, can cross geographical barriers and cruise at low altitudes, is radar-evading and can counter the enemy's electronic warfare, and employs artificial intelligence in its flight path design software.

- Warning to aircraft carriers

Commander of the IRGC Navy Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri explained that one of the main features of the new missile is keeping the enemy away from the Iranian coasts and rendering its aircraft carriers useless.

He explained that if an Iranian military vessel sails 1,000 kilometers offshore and launches an Abu Mahdi missile, the enemy's aircraft carrier must retreat at least 1,000 kilometers further away to evade the long-range naval cruise missile.

"This means that the fighter jets on board that aircraft carrier will be rendered useless," he said.

For his part, Iranian Army Navy Admiral Hamzeh Ali Kaviani declared that adding this missile to the army's naval forces complements their deterrence and defense force.

Kaviani indicated the navy could install these missiles on ships to protect Iran's interests.

Iran possesses the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East, including cruise missiles for ground attacks and other cruise missiles to attack ships, which can be launched from land, sea, or air.

- Media campaign

The state media launched a promotional campaign for the latest productions of the Iranian Ministry of Defense.

IRGC-affiliated Tasnim agency said it is "the first long-range naval cruise missile whose trajectory definition and command-and-control systems have been equipped with artificial intelligence.

The agency also indicated that the missile could streak at low altitudes for radar-evading maneuvers and alter its course and height in midair. It also has a powerful warhead capable of detonating various warships, frigates, and destroyers by hitting the target from different directions.

ISNA described it as a "sharp eye over the Gulf" and could be launched from ships, frigates, destroyers, and platforms, and it can update the guidance and navigation system during the flight until it reaches the final target.

It reported that the missile is capable of equipping and launching large numbers in the shortest possible time and through various paths.

- Navigation threat

Iran's activities on the high seas, especially in the Gulf region and the Strait of Hormuz, raise international concerns about securing maritime navigation.

The US announced last week that it would send additional F-35 and F-16 fighters and a warship to the Middle East to monitor vital waterways in the region, following Iran's detention and harassment of commercial cargo ships in the past months.

The Iranian move comes amid anticipation regarding the US position on the approaching date of lifting restrictions on Iran's ballistic missile program on October 18.

Last week, the US Senate Foreign Affairs Committee proposed imposing sanctions on Iran's ballistic missile and drone program to pressure President Joe Biden's administration.

Weeks earlier, diplomatic sources told Reuters that Iran had received a warning from Britain, France, and Germany that they plan to continue implementing restrictions on the missile program, contrary to the nuclear agreement, in which Iran violates most of its fundamental limits in response to the US sanctions that brought it back.

An Iranian official told Reuters that the EU diplomat, Enrique Mora, coordinating talks on reviving the nuclear deal, discussed the EU sanctions when he met Tehran's chief negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, in Doha on June 21.

A European official told reporters in Washington last week that he did not expect it would be challenging to convince EU countries to maintain the ballistic missile sanctions on Iran, due in October.

Tehran waved a severe response to any European move to maintain ballistic missile sanctions.

Since the declaration of the nuclear agreement, Iran tested ballistic missiles with a range of 1,000 to 2,000 kilometers, in a move that Western powers deemed inconsistent with Resolution 2231.

In February 2019, Iran unveiled the development of the Hoveyzeh cruise missile with a range of 1,300 km. Western military experts previously said this model could be developed to carry nuclear heads, with a range between 2,000 to 3,000 kilometers.

Resolution 2231 restrictions imposed are limited to ballistic missiles and do not include the development of surface-to-surface cruise missiles, which are also capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

Western military analysts warn that Iran will seek to export cruise missiles if it becomes involved in the arms sale market.

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How Likely Is the Use of Nuclear Weapons by Russia?

This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)
This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)
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How Likely Is the Use of Nuclear Weapons by Russia?

This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)
This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)

On 24 February 2022, in a televised speech heralding the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin issued what was interpreted as a threat to use nuclear weapons against NATO countries should they interfere.

“Russia will respond immediately,” he said, “and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history.”

Then on 27 February 2022, Putin ordered Russia to move nuclear forces to a “special mode of combat duty’, which has a significant meaning in terms of the protocols to launch nuclear weapons from Russia.”

Dr. Patricia Lewis, director of the International Security program at Chatham House, wrote in a report that according to Russian nuclear weapons experts, Russia’s command and control system cannot transmit launch orders in peacetime, so increasing the status to “combat” allows a launch order to go through and be put into effect.

She said Putin made stronger nuclear threats in September 2022, following months of violent conflict and gains made by a Ukrainian counterattack.

“He indicated a stretch in Russian nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for nuclear weapons use from an existential threat to Russia to a threat to its territorial integrity,” Lewis wrote.

In November 2022, according to much later reports, the US and allies detected manoeuvres that suggested Russian nuclear forces were being mobilized.

Lewis said that after a flurry of diplomatic activity, China’s President Xi Jinping stepped in to calm the situation and speak against the use of nuclear weapons.

In September 2024, Putin announced an update of the 2020 Russian nuclear doctrine. The update was published on 19 November 2024 and formally reduced the threshold for nuclear weapons use.

According to Lewis, the 2020 doctrine said that Russia could use nuclear weapons “in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.”

On 21 November 2024, Russia attacked Dnipro in Ukraine using a new ballistic missile for the first time.

She said Putin announced the missile as the ‘Oreshnik’, which is understood to be a nuclear-capable, intermediate-range ballistic missile which has a theoretical range of below 5,500km.

Lewis added that Russia has fired conventionally armed nuclear-capable missiles at Ukraine throughout the war, but the Oreshnik is much faster and harder to defend against, and suggests an escalatory intent by Russia.

Nuclear Response During Cold War

In her report, Lewis said that nuclear weapons deterrence was developed in the Cold War primarily on the basis of what was called ‘mutually assured destruction’ (MAD).

The idea behind MAD is that the horror and destruction from nuclear weapons is enough to deter aggressive action and war, she added.

But the application of deterrence theory to post-cold war realities is far more complicated in the era of cyberattacks and AI, which could interfere with the command and control of nuclear weapons.

In light of these risks, presidents Biden and Xi issued a joint statement from the 2024 G20 summit affirming the need to maintain human control over the decision to use nuclear weapons.

The US and Russia exchange information on their strategic, long-range nuclear missiles under the New START agreement – a treaty to reduce and monitor nuclear weapons between the two countries which is set to expire in February 2026.

But, Lewis said, with the US decision to exit the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019, there are no longer any agreements between the US and Russia regulating the number or the deployment of ground-launched nuclear missiles with a range of 500-5,500 km.

She said short-range nuclear weapons were withdrawn and put in storage as a result of the 1991 Presidential Nuclear Initiatives but are not subject to any legal restraints.

The 10th NPT Review Conference was held in 2022 in New York. The issue of nuclear weapons threats and the targeting of nuclear power stations in Ukraine were central to the debate.

Lewis noted that a document was carefully crafted to finely balance concerns about the three pillars of the treaty – non-proliferation, nuclear disarmament and the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. But Russia withdrew its agreement on the last day of the conference, scuppering progress.

“It was believed that if Russia were to use nuclear weapons it would likely be in Ukraine, using short range, lower yield ‘battlefield’ nuclear weapons,” she said, adding that Russia is thought to have more than 1,000 in reserve.

“These would have to be taken from storage and either connected to missiles, placed in bombers, or as shell in artillery,” Lewis wrote.

Increasingly the rhetoric from Russia suggests nuclear threats are a more direct threat to NATO – not only Ukraine – and could refer to longer range, higher yield nuclear weapons.

For example in his 21 September 2022 speech, Putin accused NATO states of nuclear blackmail, referring to alleged “statements made by some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO countries on the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction – nuclear weapons – against Russia.”

Putin added: “In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff.”

There have been no expressed nuclear weapons threats from NATO states.

NATO does rely on nuclear weapons as a form of deterrence and has recently committed to significantly strengthen its longer-term deterrence and defence posture in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The current UK Labor government has repeatedly reiterated its commitment to British nuclear weapons – including before the July 2024 election, according to Lewis.

Therefore, she said, any movement to ready and deploy Russian nuclear weapons would be seen and monitored by US and others’ satellites, which can see through cloud cover and at night – as indeed appears to have happened in late 2022.

Lewis concluded that depending on other intelligence and analysis – and the failure of all diplomatic attempts to dissuade Russia – NATO countries may decide to intervene to prevent launch by bombing storage sites and missile deployment sites in advance.