IAEA: Iran is Weeks Away from Having Enough Enriched Uranium to Develop Nuclear Bomb

Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) attends an IAEA Board of Governors meeting at the agency's headquarters in Vienna, Austria on April 11, 2024. (AFP)
Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) attends an IAEA Board of Governors meeting at the agency's headquarters in Vienna, Austria on April 11, 2024. (AFP)
TT

IAEA: Iran is Weeks Away from Having Enough Enriched Uranium to Develop Nuclear Bomb

Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) attends an IAEA Board of Governors meeting at the agency's headquarters in Vienna, Austria on April 11, 2024. (AFP)
Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) attends an IAEA Board of Governors meeting at the agency's headquarters in Vienna, Austria on April 11, 2024. (AFP)

Head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Mariano Grossi has warned that Iran is “weeks rather than months” away from having enough enriched uranium to develop a nuclear bomb.

Grossi told the German Deutsche Welle channel Tuesday that although uranium enrichment at near weapons-grade levels is a cause for alarm, one cannot draw the direct conclusion that Iran now has a nuclear weapon.

“That does not mean that Iran has or would have a nuclear weapon in that space of time,” he added.

The head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog said “a functional nuclear warhead requires many other things independently from the production of the fissile material,” adding that Iran’s nuclear goals are “a matter of speculation.”

Iran has been enriching uranium to up to 60 percent purity since April 2021 in the Natanz and Fordow facilities.

The latest report issued by Grossi said Iran’s total stock of nuclear material stands at 27 times the limit agreed in the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal.

At the end of 2023, the IAEA warned that Tehran already had enough material to make three nuclear bombs if it enriches the material now at 60% to beyond 60%.

On Tuesday, Grossi said the IAEA is not getting the level of access he believes it needs in Iran, which he said added more to the speculation around Tehran's nuclear program.

“I have been telling my Iranian counterparts time and again [...] this activity raises eyebrows and compounded with the fact that we are not getting the necessary degree of access and visibility that I believe should be necessary,” he said.

“When you put all of that together, then, of course, you end up with lots of question marks.”

Grossi then highlighted unresolved IAEA findings, including traces of enriched uranium in unexpected locations, exacerbating doubts about Iran's transparency.

“This has been at the center of this dialogue that I have been and I am still trying to conduct with Iran,” he explained.

Grossi is expected to issue a report on Iran’s nuclear activities next month, weeks before the IAEA Board of Governors meet in Vienna.

Grossi wanted to visit Tehran in February ahead of the regular meeting of the Agency’s Board of Governors in March.

Instead, Iran invited the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog to a conference in Tehran in May.

Turning to the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, Grossi condemned any notion of attacking nuclear facilities.

“Attacking nuclear facilities is an absolute no-go,” he said.

Reacting to reports of talks between the United States and Iran, the IAEA chief said his agency always tries to promote dialogue.

Meanwhile, Iranian lawmaker Javad Karimi Ghoddusi said Iran is only “a one-week gap from the issuance of the order to the first test” of a nuclear bomb, if instructed to do so by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Ghoddusi’s statement came hours after Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani denied any intention by his country to change the course of its nuclear program. “Nuclear weapons have no place in our nuclear doctrine,” the spokesperson said.



Iran Defies International Pressure, Increasing Stockpile of Near Weapons-Grade Uranium, UN Says

This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran on November 15 2024, shows the organization's spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi (R) and Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharib Abadi (L), posing for a picture with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi (2-L), in front of the gate of the Natanz nuclear enrichment plant in Iran's Isfahan province. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran / AFP)
This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran on November 15 2024, shows the organization's spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi (R) and Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharib Abadi (L), posing for a picture with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi (2-L), in front of the gate of the Natanz nuclear enrichment plant in Iran's Isfahan province. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran / AFP)
TT

Iran Defies International Pressure, Increasing Stockpile of Near Weapons-Grade Uranium, UN Says

This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran on November 15 2024, shows the organization's spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi (R) and Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharib Abadi (L), posing for a picture with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi (2-L), in front of the gate of the Natanz nuclear enrichment plant in Iran's Isfahan province. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran / AFP)
This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran on November 15 2024, shows the organization's spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi (R) and Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharib Abadi (L), posing for a picture with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi (2-L), in front of the gate of the Natanz nuclear enrichment plant in Iran's Isfahan province. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran / AFP)

Iran has defied international demands to rein in its nuclear program and has increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels, according to a confidential report by the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog seen Tuesday by The Associated Press.

The report by the International Atomic Energy Agency said that as of Oct. 26, Iran has 182.3 kilograms (401.9 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60%, an increase of 17.6 kilograms (38.8 pounds) since the last report in August.

Uranium enriched at 60% purity is just a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%.

The IAEA also estimated in its quarterly report that as of Oct. 26, Iran’s overall stockpile of enriched uranium stands at 6,604.4 kilograms (14,560 pounds), an increase of 852.6 kilograms (1,879.6 pounds) since August. Under the IAEA’s definition, around 42 kilograms (92.5 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60% purity is the amount at which creating one atomic weapon is theoretically possible — if the material is enriched further, to 90%.

The reports come at a critical time as Israel and Iran have traded missile attacks in recent months after more than a year of war in Gaza, which is governed by Hamas, a group supported by Iran.

Adding to the complexity, Donald Trump’s reelection raises questions about whether and how the incoming administration and Iran may engage.

Trump’s first term in office was marked by a particularly troubled period, when he pursued a policy of “maximum pressure” against Tehran. He unilaterally withdrew America from Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers, leading to the sanctions hobbling the economy, and ordered the killing of the country’s top general.

Western diplomats consider censuring Iran

Iran last week offered not to expand its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60%, during a visit to Tehran by the IAEA chief, Rafael Mariano Grossi.

The IAEA said during the meetings, “the possibility of Iran not further expanding its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% U-235 was discussed, including technical verification measures necessary for the Agency to confirm this, if implemented.”

The report said that one day after Grossi left Iran, on Nov. 16, IAEA inspectors verified that “Iran had begun implementation of preparatory measures aimed at stopping the increase of its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60 % U-235” at its underground nuclear sites in Fordow and Natanz.

The reports come ahead of this week’s regular IAEA Board of Governors meeting in Vienna. Western countries have been considering a resolution censuring Iran for its failure to improve cooperation with the agency.

A senior diplomat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said it is possible that the commitments made by Iran during the IAEA’s chief visit may not stand in case a resolution is passed. In the past, Iran has responded to resolutions by the IAEA Board of Governors by further enhancing its nuclear program.

Iran has maintained its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only, but Grossi, has previously warned that Tehran has enough uranium enriched to near-weapons-grade levels to make “several” nuclear bombs if it chose to do so. He has acknowledged the UN agency cannot guarantee that none of Iran’s centrifuges may have been peeled away for clandestine enrichment.

Little progress on improving ties

The IAEA also reported that Iran has failed to take concrete steps as of now to improve cooperation, despite pleas by Grossi, who held talks last week with Mohammad Eslami of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Iran’s reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian.

However, Tuesday’s confidential report also said that during Grossi’s visit to Iran on Nov. 14, “Iran agreed to respond to the Agency’s concerns related to Iran’s withdrawal of the designation of several experienced Agency inspectors by considering the acceptance of the designation of four additional experienced inspectors.”

In September 2023, Iran barred some of the Vienna-based agency’s most experienced inspectors.

The report also said there was no progress thus far in reinstalling more monitoring equipment, including cameras, removed in June 2022. Since then, the only recorded data comes from IAEA cameras installed at a centrifuge workshop in Isfahan in May 2023 — although Iran has not provided the IAEA with access to this data and inspectors have not been able to service the cameras.

Last week, Eslami warned that Iran could retaliate if challenged at the upcoming IAEA board meeting. Grossi acknowledged some nations were considering taking action against Iran.

In an effort to ensure Iran could not develop atomic weapons, world powers struck a deal with Tehran in 2015 under which it agreed to limit enrichment of uranium to levels necessary for nuclear power in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. UN inspectors were tasked with monitoring the program

Under the original 2015 nuclear deal, Iran was allowed to enrich uranium only up to 3.67% purity, can maintain a stockpile of uranium of 300 kilograms and is permitted to use only very basic IR-1 centrifuges, machines that spin uranium gas at high speed for enrichment purposes.

A year after the US withdrawal from the deal under Donald Trump, Iran started to gradually abandon all limits the deal put on its program and began enriching uranium to up to 60% purity.