عربي English Türkçe اردو فارسى
Logo
Latest News
World

US-Japan Security Talks Underscore Threat from China

US Ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, Defense Minister Minoru Kihara (not pictured) attend their Extended Deterrence Ministerial Meeting at Iikura Guest House in Tokyo, Japan July 28, 2024. REUTERS/Issei Kato
US Ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, Defense Minister Minoru Kihara (not pictured) attend their Extended Deterrence Ministerial Meeting at Iikura Guest House in Tokyo, Japan July 28, 2024. REUTERS/Issei Kato
TT
TT

US-Japan Security Talks Underscore Threat from China

US Ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, Defense Minister Minoru Kihara (not pictured) attend their Extended Deterrence Ministerial Meeting at Iikura Guest House in Tokyo, Japan July 28, 2024. REUTERS/Issei Kato
US Ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, Defense Minister Minoru Kihara (not pictured) attend their Extended Deterrence Ministerial Meeting at Iikura Guest House in Tokyo, Japan July 28, 2024. REUTERS/Issei Kato

Japanese and US defense chiefs and top diplomats agreed to further bolster their military cooperation by upgrading the command and control of US forces in the East Asian country and strengthening American-licensed missile production there, describing the rising threat from China as “the greatest strategic challenge.”
Japan is home to more than 50,000 US troops, but the commander for the US Forces Japan headquartered in Yokota in the western suburbs of Tokyo, tasked with managing their bases, has no commanding authority. Instead, instructions come from the US Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii. The plans will give the USFJ greater capability while still reporting to INDOPACOM.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin joined their Japanese counterparts, Yoko Kamikawa and Minoru Kihara, at the Japan-US Security Consultative Committee in Tokyo, known as “2+2” security talks where they reaffirmed their bilateral alliance following President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the November presidential race.

“We are standing at a historic turning point as the rules-based, free and open international order is shaken to the core," Kamikawa said. "Now is a critical phase when our decision today determines our future.”

Austin, in his opening remarks, said China is “engaging in coercive behavior, trying to change the status quo in the East and South China Seas, around Taiwan and throughout the region," adding that North Korea's nuclear program and its deepening cooperation with Russia “threaten regional and global security.”

In the joint statement issued after the talks, the ministers said China's foreign policy “seeks to reshape the international order for its own benefit at the expense of others” and that “such behavior is a serious concern to the alliance and the entire international community and represents the greatest strategic challenge in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.”

China has been at odds with many countries in the Asia-Pacific for years because of its sweeping maritime claims over the crucial South China Sea. It also claims self-governing Taiwan as its territory, to be annexed by force if necessary. In March, Beijing announced a 7.2% increase in its defense budget, already the world’s second-highest behind the United States, marking a massive military expansion.

According to The Associated Press, the ministers said the US command reorganization, set for March to be in line with Japan's own command updating, aimed “to facilitate deeper interoperability and cooperation on joint bilateral operations in peacetime and during contingencies” and enhance intelligence coordination, surveillance, reconnaissance and cybersecurity.

Japan has long suffered from cybersecurity threats that Washington believes are of grave concern. Lately, Japan’s space agency revealed it suffered a series of cyberattacks, and though sensitive information related to space and defense was not affected, it has triggered worry and pushed the agency to pursue preventative measures.

The ministers in a joint statement reaffirmed the US commitment to “extended deterrence,” which includes atomic weapons — a shift from Japan’s earlier reluctance to openly discuss the sensitive issue, as the world’s only country to have suffered atomic attacks, amid nuclear threats from Russia and China.

Most Viewed

 
 
World

How Likely Is the Use of Nuclear Weapons by Russia?

This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)
This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)
TT
TT

How Likely Is the Use of Nuclear Weapons by Russia?

This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)
This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)

On 24 February 2022, in a televised speech heralding the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin issued what was interpreted as a threat to use nuclear weapons against NATO countries should they interfere.

“Russia will respond immediately,” he said, “and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history.”

Then on 27 February 2022, Putin ordered Russia to move nuclear forces to a “special mode of combat duty’, which has a significant meaning in terms of the protocols to launch nuclear weapons from Russia.”

Dr. Patricia Lewis, director of the International Security program at Chatham House, wrote in a report that according to Russian nuclear weapons experts, Russia’s command and control system cannot transmit launch orders in peacetime, so increasing the status to “combat” allows a launch order to go through and be put into effect.

She said Putin made stronger nuclear threats in September 2022, following months of violent conflict and gains made by a Ukrainian counterattack.

“He indicated a stretch in Russian nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for nuclear weapons use from an existential threat to Russia to a threat to its territorial integrity,” Lewis wrote.

In November 2022, according to much later reports, the US and allies detected manoeuvres that suggested Russian nuclear forces were being mobilized.

Lewis said that after a flurry of diplomatic activity, China’s President Xi Jinping stepped in to calm the situation and speak against the use of nuclear weapons.

In September 2024, Putin announced an update of the 2020 Russian nuclear doctrine. The update was published on 19 November 2024 and formally reduced the threshold for nuclear weapons use.

According to Lewis, the 2020 doctrine said that Russia could use nuclear weapons “in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.”

On 21 November 2024, Russia attacked Dnipro in Ukraine using a new ballistic missile for the first time.

She said Putin announced the missile as the ‘Oreshnik’, which is understood to be a nuclear-capable, intermediate-range ballistic missile which has a theoretical range of below 5,500km.

Lewis added that Russia has fired conventionally armed nuclear-capable missiles at Ukraine throughout the war, but the Oreshnik is much faster and harder to defend against, and suggests an escalatory intent by Russia.

Nuclear Response During Cold War

In her report, Lewis said that nuclear weapons deterrence was developed in the Cold War primarily on the basis of what was called ‘mutually assured destruction’ (MAD).

The idea behind MAD is that the horror and destruction from nuclear weapons is enough to deter aggressive action and war, she added.

But the application of deterrence theory to post-cold war realities is far more complicated in the era of cyberattacks and AI, which could interfere with the command and control of nuclear weapons.

In light of these risks, presidents Biden and Xi issued a joint statement from the 2024 G20 summit affirming the need to maintain human control over the decision to use nuclear weapons.

The US and Russia exchange information on their strategic, long-range nuclear missiles under the New START agreement – a treaty to reduce and monitor nuclear weapons between the two countries which is set to expire in February 2026.

But, Lewis said, with the US decision to exit the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019, there are no longer any agreements between the US and Russia regulating the number or the deployment of ground-launched nuclear missiles with a range of 500-5,500 km.

She said short-range nuclear weapons were withdrawn and put in storage as a result of the 1991 Presidential Nuclear Initiatives but are not subject to any legal restraints.

The 10th NPT Review Conference was held in 2022 in New York. The issue of nuclear weapons threats and the targeting of nuclear power stations in Ukraine were central to the debate.

Lewis noted that a document was carefully crafted to finely balance concerns about the three pillars of the treaty – non-proliferation, nuclear disarmament and the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. But Russia withdrew its agreement on the last day of the conference, scuppering progress.

“It was believed that if Russia were to use nuclear weapons it would likely be in Ukraine, using short range, lower yield ‘battlefield’ nuclear weapons,” she said, adding that Russia is thought to have more than 1,000 in reserve.

“These would have to be taken from storage and either connected to missiles, placed in bombers, or as shell in artillery,” Lewis wrote.

Increasingly the rhetoric from Russia suggests nuclear threats are a more direct threat to NATO – not only Ukraine – and could refer to longer range, higher yield nuclear weapons.

For example in his 21 September 2022 speech, Putin accused NATO states of nuclear blackmail, referring to alleged “statements made by some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO countries on the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction – nuclear weapons – against Russia.”

Putin added: “In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff.”

There have been no expressed nuclear weapons threats from NATO states.

NATO does rely on nuclear weapons as a form of deterrence and has recently committed to significantly strengthen its longer-term deterrence and defence posture in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The current UK Labor government has repeatedly reiterated its commitment to British nuclear weapons – including before the July 2024 election, according to Lewis.

Therefore, she said, any movement to ready and deploy Russian nuclear weapons would be seen and monitored by US and others’ satellites, which can see through cloud cover and at night – as indeed appears to have happened in late 2022.

Lewis concluded that depending on other intelligence and analysis – and the failure of all diplomatic attempts to dissuade Russia – NATO countries may decide to intervene to prevent launch by bombing storage sites and missile deployment sites in advance.