Iran: Calculation Error Behind Failure of Israeli Strikes

The funeral of an Iranian Air Defense officer in Borujerd, Central Iran. (IRNA)
The funeral of an Iranian Air Defense officer in Borujerd, Central Iran. (IRNA)
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Iran: Calculation Error Behind Failure of Israeli Strikes

The funeral of an Iranian Air Defense officer in Borujerd, Central Iran. (IRNA)
The funeral of an Iranian Air Defense officer in Borujerd, Central Iran. (IRNA)

Iranian security officials confirmed on Tuesday that Israeli airstrikes did not meet their goals due to a “calculation error.”

However, satellite images indicate that the strikes damaged a missile manufacturing facility associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Analysis by the Associated Press suggests the Israeli attacks likely affected an IRGC base involved in producing ballistic missiles and launching missiles as part of its space program.

The damage at the Shahroud facility raises questions about the Israeli strikes that occurred early Saturday, particularly since it was in an area that Tehran had not previously acknowledged.

The IRGC has not commented on any damage from the attacks. Iran only reported that the Israeli strikes targeted the provinces of Ilam, Khuzestan, and Tehran, without mentioning Semnan province, where the facility is located.

On Oct. 25, 2024, the Israeli military launched “precise and targeted” strikes on missile production sites and other military capabilities in Iran in response to an earlier attack by Tehran on Israel.

Israel warned that Iran would face a “heavy price” if it retaliated.

Iran’s Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh said that “Israel did not achieve its goals in its recent attack on the country.”

In a message honoring air defense personnel killed in the Israeli strikes, Nasirzadeh pointed out that “Israel made another mistake in judging Iran’s deterrence capabilities.”

He called the attacks “a clear violation of international law” and noted that they failed to accomplish their objectives.

According to the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency, Nasirzadeh claimed that “Iran’s comprehensive air defense system successfully intercepted and countered the Israeli attack on military sites in Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam.”

Gholamreza Jalali, head of Iran’s Civil Defense Organization, stated on Tuesday that “Israel was planning to attack Iran’s military infrastructure.”

In comments to the media, Jalali said that “civil defense supports the military sector and is investing in industrial control systems for cyberspace.”

He highlighted the one of the systems which manages operations in refineries and gas and water transmission lines, helping the country defend against cyberattacks.

Jalali disclosed that “Iran began checking control and communication devices after the pager explosions in Lebanon and found a previously planted sensor during inspections of external servers.”

“We discovered software sensors that could threaten the country. These risks can no longer be ignored and need investigation,” he noted.

Jalali confirmed that Tehran is now working with “a local knowledge-based company to build internal servers.”



Israeli Police Arrest Couple Accused of Spying for Iran

A man walks across a bridge, in front of billboards bearing the flags of the US and Israel with a message in support of US presidential candidate Donald Trump, in Tel Aviv on October 30, 2024. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP)
A man walks across a bridge, in front of billboards bearing the flags of the US and Israel with a message in support of US presidential candidate Donald Trump, in Tel Aviv on October 30, 2024. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP)
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Israeli Police Arrest Couple Accused of Spying for Iran

A man walks across a bridge, in front of billboards bearing the flags of the US and Israel with a message in support of US presidential candidate Donald Trump, in Tel Aviv on October 30, 2024. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP)
A man walks across a bridge, in front of billboards bearing the flags of the US and Israel with a message in support of US presidential candidate Donald Trump, in Tel Aviv on October 30, 2024. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP)

Israeli police said Thursday they have arrested a couple accused of spying on Israeli intelligence sites and collecting information on an Israeli academic on behalf of Iran.

Israeli security services say they have uncovered several Iranian spy networks in recent months. The two archenemies have waged a long-running shadow war that has burst into the open since the outbreak of the war in Gaza. They exchanged fire directly for the first time in April and then again this month.

In a statement released Thursday, the police and the Shin Bet internal security agency said that the man arrested, Rafael Guliev, from the central city of Lod, had surveilled Israel’s Mossad spy headquarters for the Iranians and collected information on an academic working at the Institute for National Security Studies, a prominent Israeli think tank. It did not identify the scholar.

The statement said Guliev was also entrusted with finding an assassin, though the statement did not make clear if he had actually done so.
Guliev’s wife, Lala, assisted in the activities, the statement said.