Tensions with Israel Overshadow Iran’s 2025 Budget

Iranian lawmakers concerned about gasoline price hike (AFP)
Iranian lawmakers concerned about gasoline price hike (AFP)
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Tensions with Israel Overshadow Iran’s 2025 Budget

Iranian lawmakers concerned about gasoline price hike (AFP)
Iranian lawmakers concerned about gasoline price hike (AFP)

After a contentious debate, Iran’s parliament approved the 2025 budget proposal, which features a 200% increase in military funding, tax changes, and higher gasoline prices.

On Tuesday, 146 out of 246 lawmakers supported the budget during a session, according to the state-run Mehr News Agency.

However, this approval is not final; the budget will undergo review by special committees as a “bill,” and it may take months to become law.

Experts say that Tuesday’s approval is merely an endorsement of the budget’s outlines, although it marks a significant step for President Masoud Pezeshkian.

In remarks aired on state television, Pezeshkian highlighted that his government’s budget focuses on growth, employment, and justice.

While Pezeshkian aims to address the country’s economic crisis, he faces major challenges, primarily Western sanctions, which complicate his ambitious plans for the Iranian people.

The Iranian government has proposed a 200% increase in the military budget for the upcoming fiscal year, starting in March 2025, amid escalating tensions with Israel.

Government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani announced this significant increase during her weekly press conference, linking it to “the tension imposed by Israel in the region.”

However, she did not specify the exact military expenditure for the next year, as Iran typically refrains from providing precise figures on its military spending, especially concerning activities linked to the Revolutionary Guard.

Most of Iran’s military budget is allocated to the Revolutionary Guard, responsible for defending the regime, according to the official IRNA news agency. The remaining funds are divided between the General Staff of the Armed Forces and the regular army.

Iran supports armed groups in the region, notably Hezbollah, which has been engaged in open conflict with Israeli forces since last month after a year of cross-border exchanges. Iran also backs groups in Iraq and Yemen.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Iran’s military spending was approximately $10.3 billion in 2023, excluding the Revolutionary Guard’s share.

In comparison, Israel’s military budget rose by 24% to $27.5 billion in 2023.

Although Pezeshkian stated that his government “consulted with various lawmakers and experts” when drafting the budget, concerns about rising gasoline prices have sparked fears of public unrest.

Discussions among parliament members have not explicitly mentioned an increase in fuel prices, but the budget proposal leaves that possibility open.

Tehran lawmaker Hossein Samsami predicted a potential 40% rise in gasoline prices in the upcoming budget bill. Fellow lawmaker Hossein Ali Haji Delighani remarked that the government’s stance on the price increase remains unclear.

Meanwhile, Gholamreza Dehghan Nasrabadi cautioned that raising gasoline prices could trigger social and political unrest under current economic conditions.

Gholamreza Tajgardoon, head of the Budget Consolidation Committee, urged lawmakers to “amend the budget instead of rejecting it outright.” He noted that the committee would remove provisions conflicting with existing laws.

Last week, the government revealed that the production cost of gasoline is around 80,000 Iranian rials per liter, excluding the cost of crude oil.

The Iranian rial has fallen to record lows against the dollar, with inflation rising by 33% in 2023, according to a previous report from the German news agency, dpa.



Türkiye Insists on Two States for Ethnically Divided Cyprus as the UN Looks to Restart Peace Talks

UN Secretary General's Special Representative in Cyprus Colin Stewart, center, Cyprus' President Nikos Christodoulides, left, and the Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar talk as they attend the UN's end of year reception at Ledras Palace inside the UNbuffer zone in the divided capital Nicosia, Cyprus, Tuesday, Dec. 10, 2024. (AP Photo/Petros Karadjias)
UN Secretary General's Special Representative in Cyprus Colin Stewart, center, Cyprus' President Nikos Christodoulides, left, and the Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar talk as they attend the UN's end of year reception at Ledras Palace inside the UNbuffer zone in the divided capital Nicosia, Cyprus, Tuesday, Dec. 10, 2024. (AP Photo/Petros Karadjias)
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Türkiye Insists on Two States for Ethnically Divided Cyprus as the UN Looks to Restart Peace Talks

UN Secretary General's Special Representative in Cyprus Colin Stewart, center, Cyprus' President Nikos Christodoulides, left, and the Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar talk as they attend the UN's end of year reception at Ledras Palace inside the UNbuffer zone in the divided capital Nicosia, Cyprus, Tuesday, Dec. 10, 2024. (AP Photo/Petros Karadjias)
UN Secretary General's Special Representative in Cyprus Colin Stewart, center, Cyprus' President Nikos Christodoulides, left, and the Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar talk as they attend the UN's end of year reception at Ledras Palace inside the UNbuffer zone in the divided capital Nicosia, Cyprus, Tuesday, Dec. 10, 2024. (AP Photo/Petros Karadjias)

Türkiye on Wednesday again insisted on a two-state peace accord in ethnically divided Cyprus as the United Nations prepares to meet with all sides in early spring in hopes of restarting formal talks to resolve one of the world’s most intractable conflicts.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Cyprus “must continue on the path of a two-state solution” and that expending efforts on other arrangements ending Cyprus’ half-century divide would be “a waste of time.”
Fidan spoke to reporters after talks with Ersin Tatar, leader of the breakaway Turkish Cypriots whose declaration of independence in 1983 in Cyprus’ northern third is recognized only by Türkiye.
Cyprus’ ethnic division occurred in 1974 when Türkiye invaded in the wake of a coup, sponsored by the junta then ruling Greece, that aimed to unite the island in the eastern Mediterranean with the Greek state.
The most recent major push for a peace deal collapsed in 2017.
Since then, Türkiye has advocated for a two-state arrangement in which the numerically fewer Turkish Cypriots would never be the minority in any power-sharing arrangement.
But Greek Cypriots do not support a two-state deal that they see as formalizing the island’s partition and perpetuating what they see as a threat of a permanent Turkish military presence on the island.
Greek Cypriot officials have maintained that the 2017 talks collapsed primarily on Türkiye’s insistence on permanently keeping at least some of its estimated 35,000 troops currently in the island's breakaway north, and on enshrining military intervention rights in any new peace deal.
The UN the European Union and others have rejected a two-state deal for Cyprus, saying the only way forward is a federation agreement with Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot zones.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is preparing to host an informal meeting in Switzerland in March to hear what each side envisions for a peace deal. Last year, an envoy Guterres dispatched to Cyprus reportedly concluded that there's no common ground for a return to talks.
The island’s Greek Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides says he’s ready to resume formal talks immediately but has ruled out any discussion on a two-state arrangement.
Tatar, leader of the breakaway Turkish Cypriots, said the meeting will bring together the two sides in Cyprus, the foreign ministers of “guarantor powers” Greece and Türkiye and a senior British official to chart “the next steps” regarding Cyprus’ future.
A peace deal would not only remove a source of instability in the eastern Mediterranean, but could also expedite the development of natural gas deposits inside Cyprus' offshore economic zone that Türkiye disputes.