Trump Considers Preventive Airstrikes to Stop Iran from Building Nuclear Weapon

US President-elect Donald Trump is weighing options for stopping Iran from being able to build a nuclear weapon, including the possibility of preventive airstrikes, a move that would break with the longstanding policy of containing Tehran with diplomacy and sanctions, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.
“The military-strike option against nuclear facilities is now under more serious review by some members of his transition team,” WSJ said.
It said the team is weighing the fall of the regime of President Bashar Assad—Tehran’s ally—in Syria and Israel’s decimation of regime proxy militias Hezbollah and Hamas.
It then quoted transition officials as saying that Iran’s weakened regional position and recent revelations of Tehran’s burgeoning nuclear work have turbocharged sensitive internal discussions.
All deliberation on the issue, however, remains in the early stages, it added.
Volatile Situation
US officials have stated that Iran may need several months to develop a nuclear weapon.
According to the WSJ report, the incoming administration is working on a “maximum pressure 2.0” which builds on Trump’s earlier policies combining economic sanctions with potential military action.
Two sets of plans are currently being drawn up.
The first will involve deploying additional US forces, aircraft, and naval assets to the Middle East. It also includes the possibility of selling advanced weaponry to Israel, such as bunker-busting munitions, to target heavily fortified Iranian facilities like Fordow and Natanz.
Another strategy involves leveraging the threat of military action in conjunction with sanctions to compel Tehran into diplomatic negotiations.
It remains unclear what option Trump might choose over Iran. Trump has indicated a preference for avoiding a full-scale conflict in the Middle East but has not ruled out military action.
In his interview with Time magazine, Trump recently said that America could go to war with Iran.
“Anything can happen,” he told the magazine that named him 2024 Person of the Year. “It’s a very volatile situation.”
Following three phone calls with Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the two men are concerned about a potential Iranian nuclear breakout.
Preventive Airstrike
Former US officials said Trump considered preventative strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites during the latter part of his first term but decided against it.
This time, according to the WSJ report, his administration may be open to supporting or taking part in an Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Trump’s allies believe his return to office presents a rare chance to counter Iran’s nuclear program while the regime is politically and economically weakened. However, military action carries risks, including the potential for escalation and uncertainty over the success of targeting Iran’s deeply buried nuclear sites.
Trump's allies believe the first few months of his new term provide an opportunity to confront the Iranian nuclear threat while the regime is in a vulnerable position.
New Sanctions
Advisors to Trump’s transition team said they plan to impose new sanctions on Iran, designate the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen as a foreign terrorist group, and prohibit countries that buy Iranian oil from purchasing American energy.
They are concerned economic pressure isn't enough to contain Tehran, which is trying to assassinate Trump. Iran had offered written assurances to the Biden administration last month that it wouldn't seek to kill Donald Trump in retaliation to the assassination of top Iranian commander, Maj-Gen. Qassem Soleimani.
Last Tuesday, Germany, Britain and France said they were “extremely concerned” about Iran's acceleration in its capacity for enrichment of uranium, urging Iran to halt and reverse these steps.
Rafael Grossi, head of the UN nuclear watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told Reuters earlier this month that Iran was accelerating its enrichment of uranium to up to 60% purity, approaching the level of about 90% that is weapons-grade.
Germany, Britain and France, known informally as the E3, said in a joint statement they condemned Iran's latest steps to significantly increase the rate of production of uranium enriched up to 60% at the underground Fordow facility, as stated in the Agency’s reports.
“We are also extremely concerned to learn that Iran has increased the number of centrifuges in use and started preparations to install additional enrichment infrastructure, further increasing Iran’s enrichment capacity,” they said.
In a report to member states, which was seen by Reuters, the IAEA said Iran had increased the enrichment rate of the material being fed into two interconnected cascades of advanced IR-6 centrifuges at its Fordow plant.
The plant had already been enriching uranium to up to 60% purity with material enriched to up to 5% purity. The material being fed in now has been enriched to up to 20% purity, accelerating the process of reaching 60%.
That change means Iran will "significantly" increase the amount of uranium it enriches to 60% purity, reaching more than 34 kg a month at Fordow alone, the report said.
According to the IAEA’s definition, around 42 kg of uranium enriched to 60% is the amount at which creating one atomic weapon is theoretically possible. The 60% purity is just a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%.
Last month, European and Iranian officials made little progress in meetings on whether they could engage in serious talks, including over Iran's disputed nuclear program, before Donald Trump returns to the White House in January.

On Saturday, a Western diplomatic source said Iran's acceleration in its enrichment of uranium to close to bomb grade is “extremely serious,” has no civilian justification and contradicts Tehran's assertions on wanting serious nuclear negotiations.

As if they aren’t already facing enough, firefighters in California also could encounter fire tornadoes — a rare but dangerous phenomenon in which wildfires create their own weather.

The National Weather Service warned Tuesday that the combination of high winds and severely dry conditions have created a “particularly dangerous situation” in which any new fire could explode in size. The advisory, which runs into Wednesday, didn’t mention tornadoes, but meteorologist Todd Hall said they're possible given the extreme conditions.

A look at fire tornadoes according to The AP.

What is a fire tornado? Fire whirl, fire devil, fire tornado or even firenado — scientists, firefighters and regular folks use multiple terms to describe similar phenomena, and they don’t always agree on what’s what. Some say fire whirls are formed only by heat, while fire tornadoes involve clouds generated by the fire itself.

The National Wildfire Coordinating Group’s glossary of wildland fire terms doesn’t include an entry for fire tornado, but it defines a fire whirl as a “spinning vortex column of ascending hot air and gases rising from a fire and carrying aloft smoke, debris and flame,” and says large whirls “have the intensity of a small tornado.”

Wildfires with turbulent plumes can produce clouds that in turn can produce lightning or a vortex of ash, smoke and flames, said Leila Carvalho, professor of meteorology and climatology at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

“There is a rotation caused by very strong wind shear and a very hot, localized low-pressure system,” she said.

What is a fire tornado capable of? Fire tornadoes can make fires stronger by sucking up air, Carvalho said. “It creates a tornado track, and wherever this goes, the destruction is like any other tornado.”

In 2018, a fire tornado the size of three football fields killed a firefighter as it exploded in what already was a vast and devastating wildfire near near Redding, about 250 miles (400 kilometers) north of San Francisco in northern California. Scientists later described an ice-capped cloud that reached 7 miles (11 km) into the air and caused winds up to 143 mph (230 kph).

Research also suggests fire tornadoes can carry airborne embers, also called firebrands, over long distances, said James Urban, an assistant professor in the Department of Fire Protection Engineering at Worcester Polytechnic Institute. They also can change the fire’s behavior, he said.

“That’s also something that is dangerous and scary for first responders, or really anyone,” he said. “It can change and maybe go in a different direction.”

The interaction between wind, the fire plume and topography determines whether a tornado will develop, he said. For example, sometimes a certain topography will restrict airflow in such a way that a spiral pattern develops.

Can you make one in a lab? Together with San José State University, Worcester Polytech is part of a Wildfire Interdisciplinary Research Center. In the lab in Worcester, researchers have created small fire tornadoes by putting up walls around a fire or arranging a bunch of little fires that together restrict airflow. But that’s on a much smaller scale than what’s happening with the wildfires.

“We’ve got the biggest fire lab in the US for a university, but we cannot get something the size of what’s been reported at these fires,” he said. “You can’t really bottle that and put it in a lab.”

Trump Considers Preventive Airstrikes to Stop Iran from Building Nuclear Weapon