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Aviation Experts: Russia's Air Defense Fire Likely Caused Azerbaijan Plane Crash

In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
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Aviation Experts: Russia's Air Defense Fire Likely Caused Azerbaijan Plane Crash

In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)

Aviation experts said Thursday that Russian air defense fire was likely responsible for the Azerbaijani plane crash the day before that killed 38 people and left all 29 survivors injured.
Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 was en route from Azerbaijan's capital of Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when it was diverted for reasons still unclear and crashed while making an attempt to land in Aktau in Kazakhstan after flying east across the Caspian Sea.
The plane went down about 3 kilometers (around 2 miles) from Aktau. Cellphone footage circulating online appeared to show the aircraft making a steep descent before smashing into the ground and exploding in a fireball.
Other footage showed part of its fuselage ripped away from the wings and the rest of the aircraft lying upside down in the grass.
Azerbaijan mourned the crash victims with national flags at half-staff across the country on Thursday. Traffic stopped at noon, and signals sounded from ships and trains as it observed a nationwide moment of silence.
Speaking at a news conference Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that it was too soon to speculate on the reasons behind the crash, but said that the weather had forced the plane to change from its planned course.
“The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,” The Associated Press quoted him as saying.
Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said that preliminary information indicated that the pilots diverted to Aktau after a bird strike led to an emergency on board.
As the official crash investigation started, some experts alleged that holes seen in the plane’s tail section could indicate that it could have come under fire from Russian air defense systems fending off a Ukrainian drone attack.
Ukrainian drones had previously attacked Grozny, the provincial capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, and other regions in the country’s North Caucasus. An official in Chechnya said another drone attack on the region was fended off on Wednesday, although federal authorities didn't report it.
Mark Zee of OPSGroup, which monitors the world’s airspace and airports for risks, said that the analysis of the images of fragments of the crashed plane indicate that it was almost certainly hit by a surface-to-air missile, or SAM.
“Much more to investigate, but at high level we'd put the probability of it being a SAM attack on the aircraft at being well into the 90-99% bracket,” he said.
Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm based in the United Kingdom, warned its clients that the “Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system.” Osprey provides analysis for carriers still flying into Russia after Western airlines halted their flights during the war.
Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said that the company had issued more than 200 alerts regarding drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war.
“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson wrote online. “It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives were lost in a way that could have been avoided.”
Yan Matveyev, an independent Russian military expert, noted that images of the crashed plane's tail reveal the damage compatible with shrapnel from a small surface-to-air missiles, such as the Pantsyr-S1 air defense system.
“It looks like the tail section of the plane was damaged by some missile fragments,” he said.
Matveyev added that it remains unclear why the pilots decided to fly hundreds of miles east across the Caspian Sea instead of trying to land at a closer airport in Russia after the plane was hit.
“Perhaps some of the plane's systems kept working for some time and the crew believed that they could make it and land normally,” Matveyev said, adding that the crew could also have faced restrictions on landing at another venue in Russia.
Caliber, an Azerbaijani news website with good government connections, also claimed that the airliner was fired upon by a Russian Pantsyr-S air defense system as it was approaching Grozny. It questioned why Russian authorities failed to close the airport despite the apparent drone raid in the area. Khamzat Kadyrov, head of Chechnya's Security Council, said that air defenses downed drones attacking the region on Wednesday.
Caliber also wondered why Russian authorities didn't allow the plane to make an emergency landing in Grozny or other Russian airports nearby after it was hit.
Asked about the claims that the plane had been fired upon by air defense assets, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that “it would be wrong to make hypotheses before investigators make their verdict.”
Kazakhstan’s parliamentary speaker, Maulen Ashimbayev, also warned against rushing to conclusions based on pictures of the plane’s fragments, describing the allegations of air defense fire as unfounded and unethical.
Other officials in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have similarly avoided comment on a possible cause of the crash, saying it will be up to investigators to determine it.
According to Kazakh officials, those aboard the plane included 42 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russian nationals, six Kazakhs and three Kyrgyzstan nationals. Russia’s Emergencies Ministry on Thursday flew nine Russian survivors to Moscow for treatment.

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New Orleans Mourns Victims of Truck Attack with Tearful Vigil and Celebration of Life

Mourners gather at a candlelight vigil and second line parade for victims of the New Year’s Day terror attack, in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, 04 January 2025. (EPA)
Mourners gather at a candlelight vigil and second line parade for victims of the New Year’s Day terror attack, in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, 04 January 2025. (EPA)
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New Orleans Mourns Victims of Truck Attack with Tearful Vigil and Celebration of Life

Mourners gather at a candlelight vigil and second line parade for victims of the New Year’s Day terror attack, in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, 04 January 2025. (EPA)
Mourners gather at a candlelight vigil and second line parade for victims of the New Year’s Day terror attack, in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, 04 January 2025. (EPA)

New Orleans mourned, wept and danced at a vigil Saturday evening along the famous thoroughfare where a man rammed a pickup truck into a crowd, killing and injuring revelers who were there to celebrate the new year.

A makeshift memorial of crosses and pictures of the 14 deceased victims amassed with candles, flowers and teddy bears. Victims' relatives held each other, some crying. But as a brass band began playing, the sorrow transformed into a celebration of life as the crowd snapped fingers, swayed and followed the music down Bourbon Street.

The coroner’s office listed the cause of death for all 14 victims as “blunt force injuries.” Beyond the deaths, authorities say about 30 other people suffered injuries in the attack early Wednesday by Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a former US Army soldier who proclaimed his support for the ISIS extremist group in online videos posted hours before he struck.

Police fatally shot Jabbar, 42, during a firefight at the scene of the deadly crash on Bourbon Street, famous worldwide for its festive vibes in New Orleans’ historic French Quarter.

University Medical Center New Orleans spokesperson Carolina Giepert said 13 people remained hospitalized, with eight people in intensive care.

Cathy Tenedorio, who lost her 25-year-old son Matthew, said she was moved by the flood of condolences and kindness at Saturday's vigil.

“This is the most overwhelming response of love, an outpouring of love. I’m floating through it all,” she said.

New Orleans native Autrele Felix, 28, left a handwritten card beside a memorial for his friend Nicole Perez, a single mother who was killed.

“It means a lot, to see that our city comes together when there’s a real tragedy,” Felix said. “We all become one.”

Others who crowded around the brass band said the best way to honor the victims was with a party.

“Because that’s what they were down here to do, they were having a good time,” life-long New Orleans resident Kari Mitten said.

President Joe Biden planned to travel to New Orleans with first lady Jill Biden on Monday to “grieve with the families and community members impacted by the tragic attack.”

Federal authorities searching Jabbar's Houston home found a workbench in the garage and hazardous materials believed to have been used to make explosive devices, according to law enforcement officials familiar with the search.

Jabbar had suspected bomb-making materials at his home and reserved the vehicle used in the attack more than six weeks earlier, law enforcement officials told The Associated Press. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly about the inquiry.

Jabbar purchased a cooler in Vidor, Texas, hours before the attack and gun oil from a store in Sulphur, Louisiana. He also booked his truck rental on Nov. 14, suggesting he may have been plotting the attack for more than six weeks, authorities said.

Authorities found crude bombs that had been planted in the neighborhood in an apparent attempt to cause more carnage. Two improvised explosive devices left in coolers several blocks apart were rendered safe at the scene. Other devices were determined to be nonfunctional, officials said.

Investigators searching Jabbar's rental truck found a transmitter intended to trigger the two bombs, the FBI said in a statement Friday, adding that there were bomb-making materials at the New Orleans home Jabbar rented prior to the attack. Jabbar tried to burn down the house by setting a small fire in a hallway and placing accelerants to help spread it, the FBI said. The flames burned out before firefighters arrived.

Authorities on Friday were still investigating Jabbar's motives and how he carried out the attack. They say he exited the crashed truck wearing a ballistic vest and helmet and fired at police, wounding at least two officers before he was fatally shot by officers returning fire.

New Orleans police declined to say Friday how many shots were fired by Jabbar and police or whether any bystanders may have been hit, citing the active investigation.

Stella Cziment, who heads the city's civilian-run Office of the Independent Police Monitor, said investigators are working to account for “every single bullet that was fired” and whether any of them struck bystanders.

Police have used multiple vehicles and barricades to block traffic at Bourbon and Canal streets since the attack. Other law enforcement agencies helped city officers provide extra security, said Reese Harper, a New Orleans police spokesperson.

The first parade of the Carnival season leading up to Mardi Gras was scheduled to take place Monday. New Orleans also will host the Super Bowl on Feb. 9.

“This enhanced safety effort will continue daily, not just during large events,” Harper said in a statement.

In a previous effort to protect the French Quarter, the city installed steel columns known as bollards to restrict vehicle access to Bourbon Street. The posts were retracted to allow deliveries to restaurants. They stopped working reliably after being gummed up by Mardi Gras beads and other detritus.

When New Year’s Eve arrived, the bollards were gone. They will be replaced ahead of the Super Bowl, officials said.

New Orleans City Council President Helena Moreno took steps toward launching an investigation into the attack. In a memo to another council member obtained by the AP, Moreno said she was initiating the creation of a local and state legislative committee “dedicated to reviewing the incident and its implications.”

“This committee will play a crucial role in assessing our current policies, enhancing security measures, and ensuring that we are adequately prepared to respond to any future threats,” Moreno wrote.

The FBI concluded Jabbar was not aided by anyone else in the attack, which killed an 18-year-old aspiring nurse, a single mother, a father of two and a former Princeton University football star, among others.

The New Orleans coroner’s office has identified 13 of the 14 victims, with the youngest listed as 18 and the oldest 63. Most of the victims were in their 20s. One was a British citizen, 31-year-old Edward Pettifer of west London, according to London’s Metropolitan Police.

British media reported Pettifer was the stepson of Tiggy Legge-Bourke, who was the nanny for Prince William and Prince Harry between 1993 and 1999, which included the time after the death of their mother, Princess Diana.

At the vigil on Saturday, family members identified Tasha Polk, a mother and nursing assistant in her 40s, as the final victim of the attack.

The Bourbon Street attack was the deadliest ISIS-inspired assault on US soil in years, laying bare what federal officials have warned is a resurgent international terrorism threat.