CIA Believes COVID Most Likely Originated from a Lab but Has Low Confidence in its Own Finding

(FILES) The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) seal is displayed in the lobby of CIA Headquarters in Langley, Virginia, on August 14, 2008. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP)
(FILES) The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) seal is displayed in the lobby of CIA Headquarters in Langley, Virginia, on August 14, 2008. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP)
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CIA Believes COVID Most Likely Originated from a Lab but Has Low Confidence in its Own Finding

(FILES) The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) seal is displayed in the lobby of CIA Headquarters in Langley, Virginia, on August 14, 2008. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP)
(FILES) The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) seal is displayed in the lobby of CIA Headquarters in Langley, Virginia, on August 14, 2008. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP)

The CIA now believes the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic most likely originated from a laboratory, according to an assessment released Saturday that points the finger at China even while acknowledging that the spy agency has “low confidence” in its own conclusion.
The finding is not the result of any new intelligence, and the report was completed at the behest of the Biden administration and former CIA Director William Burns. It was declassified and released Saturday on the orders of President Donald Trump's pick to lead the agency, John Ratcliffe, who was sworn in Thursday as director, The Associated Press reported.
The nuanced finding suggests the agency believes the totality of evidence makes a lab origin more likely than a natural origin. But the agency's assessment assigns a low degree of confidence to this conclusion, suggesting the evidence is deficient, inconclusive or contradictory.
Earlier reports on the origins of COVID-19 have split over whether the coronavirus emerged from a Chinese lab, potentially by mistake, or whether it arose naturally. The new assessment is not likely to settle the debate. In fact, intelligence officials say it may never be resolved, due to a lack of cooperation from Chinese authorities.
The CIA "continues to assess that both research-related and natural origin scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic remain plausible,” the agency wrote in a statement about its new assessment.
Instead of new evidence, the conclusion was based on fresh analyses of intelligence about the spread of the virus, its scientific properties and the work and conditions of China's virology labs.
Lawmakers have pressured America's spy agencies for more information about the origins of the virus, which led to lockdowns, economic upheaval and millions of deaths. It's a question with significant domestic and geopolitical implications as the world continues to grapple with the pandemic's legacy.
Republican Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Saturday he was “pleased the CIA concluded in the final days of the Biden administration that the lab-leak theory is the most plausible explanation" and he commended Ratcliffe for declassifying the assessment.
“Now, the most important thing is to make China pay for unleashing a plague on the world,” Cotton said in a statement.
Chinese authorities have dismissed speculation about COVID's origins as unhelpful and motivated by politics. On Saturday, a spokesperson for China's US embassy said the CIA report has no credibility.
“We firmly oppose the politicization and stigmatization of the source of the virus, and once again call on everyone to respect science and stay away from conspiracy theories,” embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu said in a statement emailed to The Associated Press.
While the origin of the virus remains unknown, scientists think the most likely hypothesis is that it circulated in bats, like many coronaviruses, before infecting another species, probably racoon dogs, civet cats or bamboo rats. In turn, the infection spread to humans handling or butchering those animals at a market in Wuhan, where the first human cases appeared in late November 2019.
Some official investigations, however, have raised the the question of whether the virus escaped from a lab in Wuhan. Two years ago a report by the Energy Department concluded a lab leak was the most likely origin, though that report also expressed low confidence in the finding.
The same year then-FBI Director Christopher Wray said his agency believed the virus “most likely” spread after escaping from a lab.
Ratcliffe, who served as director of national intelligence during Trump's first term, has said he favors the lab leak scenario, too.
“The lab leak is the only theory supported by science, intelligence, and common sense,” Ratcliffe said in 2023.



Ukrainian Forces Knock out North Korean Self-Propelled Howitzer, Military Says 

A handout picture made available 09 February 2025 by the press service of the 24th Mechanized Brigade of Ukrainian Armed Forces, shows servicemen of the 24th Mechanized Brigade named after King Danylo, preparing to fire 2S1 self-propelled 122mm howitzer towards Russian positions, near Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, 07 February 2025 amid the Russian invasion. (EPA/Press service of the 24 Mechanized Brigade Handout) 
A handout picture made available 09 February 2025 by the press service of the 24th Mechanized Brigade of Ukrainian Armed Forces, shows servicemen of the 24th Mechanized Brigade named after King Danylo, preparing to fire 2S1 self-propelled 122mm howitzer towards Russian positions, near Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, 07 February 2025 amid the Russian invasion. (EPA/Press service of the 24 Mechanized Brigade Handout) 
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Ukrainian Forces Knock out North Korean Self-Propelled Howitzer, Military Says 

A handout picture made available 09 February 2025 by the press service of the 24th Mechanized Brigade of Ukrainian Armed Forces, shows servicemen of the 24th Mechanized Brigade named after King Danylo, preparing to fire 2S1 self-propelled 122mm howitzer towards Russian positions, near Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, 07 February 2025 amid the Russian invasion. (EPA/Press service of the 24 Mechanized Brigade Handout) 
A handout picture made available 09 February 2025 by the press service of the 24th Mechanized Brigade of Ukrainian Armed Forces, shows servicemen of the 24th Mechanized Brigade named after King Danylo, preparing to fire 2S1 self-propelled 122mm howitzer towards Russian positions, near Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, 07 February 2025 amid the Russian invasion. (EPA/Press service of the 24 Mechanized Brigade Handout) 

Ukrainian forces have struck and knocked out a North Korean self-propelled howitzer on the eastern front of the nearly three-year-old war with Russia, Ukraine's military said on Tuesday.

A statement by the Khortytsia, or East, group of forces said it was the first time since the start of the conflict that a North Korean М-1978 Koksan howitzer had been hit by a Ukrainian drone.

"In Luhansk region, fighters of the 412th separate regiment of Nemesis drones struck a very rare M-1978 North Korean self-propelled artillery vehicle with a gun caliber of 170 mm," the statement posted on Telegram said.

The post was accompanied by a video showing a military target being blown up, and said the Koksan had first been observed in the war in October 2024. Reuters could not independently confirm the report.

North Korea's military aid to Russia has included about 200 long-range artillery pieces and a significant amount of ammunition, South Korea's defense ministry told a parliament committee last week.

Luhansk region, mostly occupied by Russian forces, is one of four that Russia formally annexed in 2022, moves that Ukraine and its allies have not recognized.

Ukraine and Western military experts say up to 12,000 North Korean troops were deployed in southern Russia's Kursk region alongside Russian forces and have also reported military equipment from Pyongyang being used.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last week that Russia could send up to 3,000 more North Korean troops to Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces hold a chunk of territory more than six months after launching a cross-border incursion.

North Korean security agents are monitoring and controlling their country's troops in Kursk, telling them that the South Korean military are flying the drones attacking them, according to an interview with two North Korean prisoners of war captured in Ukraine reported by South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilboon on Wednesday.