Trump Tariffs Torch Chances of Meeting with China's Xi

With his storm of tariffs, President Donald Trump has torched ties with Beijing and likely wrecked any hope of meeting his counterpart Xi Jinping in the near term, analysts say. Brendan Smialowski / AFP/File
With his storm of tariffs, President Donald Trump has torched ties with Beijing and likely wrecked any hope of meeting his counterpart Xi Jinping in the near term, analysts say. Brendan Smialowski / AFP/File
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Trump Tariffs Torch Chances of Meeting with China's Xi

With his storm of tariffs, President Donald Trump has torched ties with Beijing and likely wrecked any hope of meeting his counterpart Xi Jinping in the near term, analysts say. Brendan Smialowski / AFP/File
With his storm of tariffs, President Donald Trump has torched ties with Beijing and likely wrecked any hope of meeting his counterpart Xi Jinping in the near term, analysts say. Brendan Smialowski / AFP/File

With his storm of tariffs on Chinese goods, US President Donald Trump has torched ties with Beijing and likely wrecked any hope of meeting his counterpart Xi Jinping in the near term, analysts say.

Since taking office in January, Trump's maelstrom of import duties against friend and foe alike has rattled diplomats and pushed global markets to the brink of financial meltdown, said AFP.

A screeching halt on further levies for most countries has calmed nerves -- for now at least -- but there has been no reprieve for China, accused by the US leader of trying to "screw" Washington.

Adding to the tensions, talks between the two superpowers on international issues like climate change and opioid addiction seem to have stalled.

"Under Trump, China-US ties have sunk to the worst state of affairs short of a fairly large armed conflict," Shi Yinhong, director of the Center for American Studies at Beijing's Renmin University of China, said.

"Trump has unsheathed his dagger against China at a speed that exceeded many people's imaginations," he said.

After a flurry of tit-for-tat hikes, the United States now charges tariffs of 145 percent on many products imported from China, with cumulative duties on some goods reaching a staggering 245 percent.

A furious Beijing has set a retaliatory toll of 125 percent on goods entering from the United States, and dismissed further rises as pointless.

US-China relations are in "effectively a state of economic war", Susan Thornton, who served as acting top US diplomat for East Asia during Trump's first administration, told AFP.

"China views Trump's stated intent to... erect a 'tariff wall against China' as illegal and an existential threat," Thornton, now a senior fellow at Yale's Paul Tsai China Center, said.

No backing down

Just a few weeks ago, multiple reports suggested Beijing and Washington were mulling a face-to-face meeting to coincide with the two leaders' birthdays in June.

But recent events have effectively left those plans dead in the water.

Trump's "rude and unreasonable" behavior has made any talks in the first half of the year "very unlikely", according to Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Shanghai's Fudan University.

Rosemary Foot, a professor and senior research fellow at Oxford University's politics and international relations department, said Beijing "would want to ensure that there would be some policy deliverables and Xi would be treated with respect".

Trump has approached the trade conflict with a typical mixture of flattery, denigration and bombast -- slamming China's "lack of respect" while hailing Xi as a "smart guy" and talking up a prospective trade deal.

Ali Wyne, a senior research and advocacy adviser focusing on US-China ties at the International Crisis Group think tank, said neither Trump nor Xi "will want to convey that he has yielded to the other".

The "likeliest impetus" for talks, he said, would be a scenario where both could claim victory -- Trump by his willingness to keep ratcheting up economic pressure, and Xi by showing China's resilience.

Rana Mitter, a professor of US-Asia relations at the Harvard Kennedy School, said a Trump-Xi summit was "still quite possible", citing the mercurial US leader's dizzying pivot from threatening war against North Korea in 2017 to meeting Kim Jong Un the following year.

"Beijing will not agree to meet if it looks as if they are conceding to the US, so behind-the-scenes diplomacy will likely be necessary," Mitter said.

Back door shut

Other analysts said Trump's fiery rhetoric and crippling tariffs had likely laid waste to backdoor talks.

Under his predecessor Joe Biden, Washington and Beijing maintained dialogue on the fentanyl crisis, climate change and other issues.

Those channels "are moribund now, as far as I can tell, and that makes it difficult to prepare the ground for such a summit", Oxford's Foot said.

Wu, of Fudan, said Trump's out-of-hand dismissal of Chinese efforts to curb fentanyl precursor exports and his climate change denial meant the space for lower-track dialogue "has, in practice, already disappeared".

In official pronouncements, China has mocked Trump's tariffs as a "numbers game" and a "joke" with no economic benefits.

Beijing has also sought to cast itself as a defender of fair trade and stability in the face of unwarranted US "bullying".

Experts said China may yet scent opportunity in the face of Trump's economic carnage.

"Trump's colossally ill-conceived mass alienation of other countries may mean more receptivity for China's outreach," said Yale's Thornton -- adding that Beijing was likely conducting "economic triage".



Macron to Raise Defense Targets, Citing Russia Threat

French President Emmanuel Macron looks on before a meeting with New Caledonia's elected officials and state representatives at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, 12 July 2025.  EPA/TOM NICHOLSON / POOL  MAXPPP OUT
French President Emmanuel Macron looks on before a meeting with New Caledonia's elected officials and state representatives at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, 12 July 2025. EPA/TOM NICHOLSON / POOL MAXPPP OUT
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Macron to Raise Defense Targets, Citing Russia Threat

French President Emmanuel Macron looks on before a meeting with New Caledonia's elected officials and state representatives at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, 12 July 2025.  EPA/TOM NICHOLSON / POOL  MAXPPP OUT
French President Emmanuel Macron looks on before a meeting with New Caledonia's elected officials and state representatives at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, 12 July 2025. EPA/TOM NICHOLSON / POOL MAXPPP OUT

President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday called for a massive boost to France's defense spending, saying freedom in Europe was facing a greater threat than at any time since the end of World War II.

"We are living a pivotal moment," Macron said in a speech to the armed forces on the eve of the national Bastille Day holiday, denouncing "imperialist policies", "annexing powers" and the notion that "might is right", all a reference to Russia, AFP said.

"Never has peace on our continent depended to such an extent on the decisions that we take now," said Macron.

France faced the challenge "of remaining free and masters of our destiny", he added.

Macron said France's defense budget should rise by 3.5 billion euros ($4.1 billion) in 2026, and then by a further three billion euros in 2027.

'Present at their battle stations'

"If you want to be feared, you must be powerful," he said, calling for "mobilization" for national defense by all government departments.

"Everyone must be present at their battle stations," Macron said.

"We are still ahead, but if we remain at the same speed we will be overtaken tomorrow," he added.

French military and security officials have been warning of global threats weighing on France, with Defense Chief of Staff Chief Thierry Burkhard saying on Friday that Russia posed a "durable" threat to Europe and that the "rank of European countries in tomorrow's world" was being decided in Ukraine, invaded by Russia in 2022.

Russia currently views France as its "main adversary in Europe", Burkhard said.

He also warned of the consequences of a diminished US commitment to Europe, along with cyber threats, disinformation campaigns and the risk of terror attacks.

"We have to take account of the fact that there has been a change in strategic parameters," he said.

On Sunday, Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu weighed in, telling the La Tribune weekly newspaper that "it's our job to provide answers".

France needed to make "a new effort" if it wanted to "depend on nobody" in the future, the minister said.

France's defense budget has already increased sharply since Macron took power, rising from 32.2 billion euros ($37.6 billion at current rates) in 2017 to 50.5 billion currently, and is projected to reach 67 billion euros in 2030.

'Sacrosanct' defense budget

If confirmed, the major defense spending boost could, however, threaten French efforts to cut deficits and reduce its debt mountain, amid pressure from the EU Commission on Paris to impose more fiscal discipline.

The servicing of France's debt alone will cost the Treasury 62 billion euros this year.

But Prime Minister Francois Bayrou, who on Tuesday is to outline his budget plan for 2026, has declared the defense budget to be "sacrosanct" and exempt from budgetary cuts.

In Sunday's speech, Macron rejected any financing of the additional defense spending through additional debt.

Several NATO countries are boosting their military spending, after the alliance's members agreed last month to spend five percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) on security.

Britain aims to increase its defense budget to 2.5 percent of GDP by 2027, and to 3.0 percent after 2029. Germany plans to reach a defense budget of 162 billion euros by 2029, equivalent to 3.5 percent of its GDP, while Poland already dedicates 4.7 percent of GDP to defense.

"Very clearly, we need to revise our programming and strategy today, in light of the changing nature of risks," Macron said on Thursday.

Lecornu this month detailed the most urgent needs for the French armed forces, including ground-to-air defenses, ammunition, electronic warfare and space capabilities.

In Sunday's interview, he said France was mostly worried about falling behind in "disruptive technologies" including artificial intelligence and quantum technology.

Beyond budget increases, the French government is also seeking to boost "national cohesion" in the face of global crises, Elysee officials said.

Macron is expected to outline a potential mobilization drive for young people who should be given "an opportunity to serve", Elysee officials said.