Sadr’s Dominance Casts a Shadow over Upcoming Iraqi Provincial Elections

    
Two Iraqi children walk past a large poster of Muqtada al-Sadr and his father in the city of Sadr, east of Baghdad, Iraq, on June 14, 2022 (AP)
Two Iraqi children walk past a large poster of Muqtada al-Sadr and his father in the city of Sadr, east of Baghdad, Iraq, on June 14, 2022 (AP)
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Sadr’s Dominance Casts a Shadow over Upcoming Iraqi Provincial Elections

    
Two Iraqi children walk past a large poster of Muqtada al-Sadr and his father in the city of Sadr, east of Baghdad, Iraq, on June 14, 2022 (AP)
Two Iraqi children walk past a large poster of Muqtada al-Sadr and his father in the city of Sadr, east of Baghdad, Iraq, on June 14, 2022 (AP)

Political parties and blocs in Iraq are actively preparing for early engagement in the upcoming provincial elections, even before the official announcement. This initiative comes despite the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) decision to commence party registration in early July.

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani has reaffirmed his government's commitment to preparing for local elections by the end of 2023.

During a meeting with the Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General in Iraq, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, Al-Sudani stated that “the government is actively engaged in the preparation process for the elections and has begun to provide all the necessary requirements for the success of the upcoming electoral events for provincial councils, while working to create the necessary conducive environment for them.”

Al-Sudani’s affirmations came after the Iraqi Parliament voted to set November 6 as the date for provincial elections, which will encompass 15 out of the 18 provinces, excluding the three provinces of the Kurdistan Region.

The premier’s affirmations served as the official announcement marking the start of genuine competition for these elections, which have been postponed for a decade.

However, the specter of the Sadrists heavily looms over these elections, amidst conflicting stances regarding their participation.

The leader of the Sadrist Movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, has not yet announced his position regarding the possibility of his movement’s participation in the upcoming provincial elections.

This is despite a statement made by an unnamed Sadrist leader declaring the participation of the Sadrists with three electoral lists.

Al-Sadr’s office or political entity has neither denied nor confirmed the statement attributed to the anonymous leader.

The Sadrist Movement remains a dominant force, especially within the Shiite factions where al-Sadr is a major competitor in Baghdad, as well as in the central and southern provinces.

Civil forces, which are greatly influenced by al-Sadr’s presence or absence, have begun announcing their preparations for the upcoming elections, regardless of the Sadrists’ participation.

This indicates that elections will be highly contentious in terms of confrontation and participation, leading to a potential shift in alliance dynamics.



Türkiye Will Do ‘Whatever It Takes’ If Syria Govt Cannot Address Kurd Militia Issue, FM Says

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attends a press conference following a meeting of foreign Ministers on developments in Syria in Aqaba, Jordan, 14 December 2024. (EPA)
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attends a press conference following a meeting of foreign Ministers on developments in Syria in Aqaba, Jordan, 14 December 2024. (EPA)
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Türkiye Will Do ‘Whatever It Takes’ If Syria Govt Cannot Address Kurd Militia Issue, FM Says

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attends a press conference following a meeting of foreign Ministers on developments in Syria in Aqaba, Jordan, 14 December 2024. (EPA)
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attends a press conference following a meeting of foreign Ministers on developments in Syria in Aqaba, Jordan, 14 December 2024. (EPA)

Türkiye will do "whatever it takes" to ensure its security if the new Syrian administration cannot address Ankara's concerns about US-allied Kurdish groups it views as terrorist groups, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Saturday.

Türkiye regards the YPG, the militant group spearheading the US-allied Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militants who have fought an insurgency against the Turkish state for 40 years and are deemed terrorists by Ankara, Washington, and the European Union.

Hostilities have escalated since the toppling of Bashar al-Assad less than two weeks ago, with Türkiye and Syrian groups it backs seizing the city of Manbij from the SDF on Dec. 9. Assad's fall has left the Kurdish factions on the back foot as they seek to retain political gains made in the last 13 years.

In an interview with France 24, Fidan said Ankara's preferred option was for the new administration in Damascus to address the problem in line with Syria's territorial unity, sovereignty, and integrity, adding that the YPG should be disbanded immediately.

"If it doesn't happen, we have to protect our own national security," he said. When asked if that included military action, Fidan said: "Whatever it takes."

Asked about SDF commander Mazloum Abdi's comments about the possibility of a negotiated solution with Ankara, Fidan said the group should seek such a settlement with Damascus, as there was "a new reality" there now.

"The new reality, hopefully, they will address these issues, but at the same time, (the) YPG/PKK, they know what we want. We don't want to see any form of military threat to ourselves. Not the present one, but also the potential one," he added.

Ankara, alongside Syrian allies, has mounted several cross-border offensives against the YPG-led SDF in northern Syria, while repeatedly demanding that its NATO ally Washington halt support for the fighters.

The US-backed SDF played a major role defeating ISIS militants in 2014-2017 with US air support, and still guards its fighters in prison camps. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that the extremist group would try to re-establish capabilities in this period.

Fidan said he didn't find the recent uptick in US troops in Syria to be the "right decision", adding the battle against ISIS was an "excuse" to maintain support for the SDF.

"The fight against ISIS, there is only one job: to keep ISIS prisoners in prisons, that's it," he said.

Fidan also said that the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, which swept into Damascus to topple Assad, had "excellent cooperation" with Ankara in the battle against ISIS and al-Qaeda in the past through intelligence sharing.

He also said Türkiye was not in favor of any foreign bases, including Russian ones, remaining in Syria, but that the choice was up to the Syrian people.